19jacobob93
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Posts posted by 19jacobob93
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I like the sound of a place called Mountain - very apt that it sits above 400m, must be one of the highest settlements in England. Other high settlements include Flash (another great name), north of Leek (another great name) and Nenthead in the North Pennines.
The western suburbs of Bradford are quite high, indeed much of the area includes a number of small towns above 200m and some above 300m including Queensbury. Halifax is quite a high town for England, along with Consett it must be the highest decent sized town in England. The vast majority of our settlements sit below the 150m mark. This make a huge difference. If many were situated 200m + we would record much more snow in our main centres even with the heat island effect.
Yep! Queensbury is the highest parish in England, as well as having the highest school in the UK which is located near mountain.
Princetown in Devon is also near the 400m mark!
And Halifax isn't that low, I think the lowest point is around 120m, plus it's surrounded with hills topping out at between 200-300m, it's an amazing sight from the town when there's nothing in Halifax and the surrounding hills are topped with snow!
Brighouse is probably the most disappointing place in the world when it comes to snow! It's a mere 67m asl and gets nobbut sleet when the surrounding towns (between 150m and 400m) have a fairly decent covering!
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Noooo it doesn't!
The lowest point in the whole of Leeds is 28M in the centre its 30-90M, Clarence dock scrapes in at 28M at the lowest point in the whole of Leeds.
Silly me! And about Leeds getting that snow, I can imagine because it snows absolutely everywhere but Brighouse!
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We got around 7 cm on the 19th of February. The snow level was definitely lower in West Yorkshire than elsewhere in England in January and February.
I'd put it at about 120m since my parents house at 99m in Brighouse got only a bit of slush, yet just up the road it settled nicely!
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Its actually not that low down, despite been in a valley/side of a valley.
The train station is at 50M ASL, The Headrow where Primark is, is 65M ASL, and Leeds Uni near Morrisons is 93M.
The centre of leeds varies between 10 and 70m asl which is rather low!
thought so, i thought it was one of the higher centres. bradford city centre is low as it is in the bottom of a bowl though both have some of the highest outskirts in england at 200m plus.
Yep! Queensbury is part of Bradford and my house is at 327m, at the top of my road is Mountain which tops out at a whopping 406m!
I would put the snow margin as 100m here in Cumbria. Windemere is 20-30 metres above and often receives snow when places like Kendal which are 50m lower receive none. A classic example of this was the 19th Feb this year, when Kendal had no snow, but at 100m the snow suddenly appeared on the A591. But it isn't just about height, alot depends on relief, proximity to coast, open land and hilly ground. Windermere tends to see heavier precipitation than Kendal being closer to the central fells and with less open land close by - this helps aid evaporative cooling, under marginal conditions we often do very well. Places further east such as Kendal tend to see lighter precipitation and showers suddenly dissipate, thus evaporative cooling doesn't have the same effect.
The above situation holds most truth under polar maritime/arctic maritime airstreams or when fronts move in from the southwest/west into a cold block.
The fells help trigger instability and shower clouds often suddenly develop over the central fells. Travel on the A591 between Kendal and Keswick and you will see this to great effect.
We received a fair few inches (about 3) on the 19th of Feb, I ended up building a sledge in my garage, which turned out to be too heavy and ended up plowing up the fields so it's hung from a Christmas tree in a forest where I deserted it! But it was the same with us, other lower towns received slush and sleet!
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On a lot of occasions, there's around an inch of snow here, but in the city centre of Leeds, there's nothing. This was evident in January this year on the 7nth on my way back from Leeds city centre there was no snow but there was around a centimeter here, and I'm only around 90 meters above sea level!
It's always a good idea to stay away from city centres as well if you're looking for snow as they can be up to 4°C warmer than the outskirts and almost 7°C warmer than rural areas! the centre of Leeds is only a mere 10m asl too so it won't fare too well during marginal conditions!
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Living close to you but at a higher altitude i imagaine that we generally get similar experiences. That said, marginal events here tend to produce snow and this is also seemingly the case near the airport as i am sure the other poster can verify though that may be height related.
I do understand what you mean in regards to towns 5 minutes away having nothing, Dewsbury is at 90asl and frequently gets next to nothing. In Feb 2009 it had lying snow for just 6 days while i had 14.
I have family who live basically at the end of the runway of Leeds Bradford who seem to get a lot of snow and I can imagine since it's the highest airport in England!
And about marginal snow; in early December in 2008 I remember we had a good 2 or 3 inches of snow, yet Hipperholme 5 minutes away, had just a slight dusting on the grass and by the time we were in Brighouse there was no sign of snow what so ever!
I read that the snow margin for England was on average between 140m and 160m asl for the winter months, so if you live above that (which we both do!) then we should do well! I can back this claim up as well because Brighouse at 99m asl always gets wet snow that hardly sticks, yet Wyke which is literally a 2 minute drive or a 10 minute walk away is at 155m and does very well with snow and can have inches when Brighouse has none!
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On a selfish note i would like a repeat of last winter. Only on 2 days were the buses not running and as far as i know the trains carried on at a reduced service. Living in the city centre this year, this will therefore give me minimal distruption.
And no offence to anybody who was disrupted but if people bought snow tyres in summer when they are cheap and wore appropriate footwear there would be far less slips and delays.
That said, it is slightly scary when a bus is revving to the max and not moving as it attemps to climb a hill while snowing.
In regards to christmas, i think the chances are better than those of PWS, i think they are 50%.
It depends on where you live, and snow around Christmas time is extremely marginal! I remember in 2004 when we had blizzard conditions and a few inches of lying snow, and I could see that at the bottom of our hill there was barely anything, and there was no snow what so ever in the town 5 minutes away!
We normally do extremely well though, our most recent white Christmases were 2004, a slight dusting in 2005, a bit of lying snow from a few weeks prior in 2008, 2009 and 2010!
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Mhm. We usually do well in an average winter too, so I shan't be complaining
Yeah, Leeds is less than half an hour away from us, but because it's further east, there's been many of times when showers have blown in and given Leeds a dusting, and died out before reaching us!
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I'm sure you will, Atlantic air cold enough at 327m asl, that far north, unless its tropical maritime
Well I hope so since things are yet again looking to be on the cold side this winter! We normally do well no matter what the outcome anyway
(not to brag ) -
Mr Data would no doubt come in handy here, but I recall reading somewhere that two consecutive white Xmases have not happened since something like the 1870's. That said, I guess you have to have a liberal interpretation of it given that snow was lying only this year just gone (and I think that may well have been the case the year before at least in my location).
I'd guess that you'd have to go back to the mini-ice age for three in a row.
Both Christmases 2009 and 2010 had both laying and falling snow here, and in 2008 the snow melted a few days before Christmas from about 2 weeks prior.
Could this year be the third year in a row with a white Christmas, and the fourth in a row with a significant snow fall before Christmas?
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There's really no relation to cold summers and cold winters. It has no effect whatsoever. This winter could end up being the mildest in the past 100 years, or maybe the coldest ever, who knows, but the current summer really has no part to play.
Not necessarily true. Stations in the south east like Benson recorded -18C temperatures last winter and regularly feature as one of the coldest in the UK, especially in months such as March. Yeovilton in the South West also recorded -17C in the winter of 2009 - 2010. Not sure why these places get so cold yet so low lying and so far south. Even a place in Buckinghamshire near London recorded -19c last December, of course daytime temperatures are much higher and snow doesn't last long compared to here.
Inland areas of the south east are nearly always much colder in winter than north west Scotland thanks to the gulf stream!
Low lying areas also do extremely well when it comes to cold winter nights even though they get less snow - last December there was over a foot of snow at our house (at 327m asl) and the temperature was -9°C, and as we drove to my parents (15 minutes away at just 99m asl) the temperature plummeted to -14.5°C and there was only a few inches of patchy snow! I think the cold just sinks down the hills into the valleys!
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One thing what i've always wondered is the bar below the charts has 35 to 85 either side but what does that mean?
From November onwards, that's identical pretty much to last year!
And I always thought the number was the percentage of the probability of the anomaly - e.g. +55 = 55% chance of being above normal, and -55 = 55% chance of being below, but i could be wrong!
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To be honest I would be happy with a repeat of last year! It would have been special if it happened in say January or February, but because it happened from Novemeber, it made it unbelievable! Prior to it I would never have dreamt something like that this side of New Year!
The rest of the winter was quite boring though, but we did get a few inches in late Feb, and then again in March.
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i think this will be an average winter - not of the filthy mild kind we saw pre 2009 and not of the very cold kind we've seen since then - which would still mean 4 winters in the trot with no above average winters, which would have to raise more than a few eyebrows. I think increased solar activity will definately play a part - and that once the solar maximum is over within the next 2 years, we could see some really phenomenal winters kick in post 2013/14. For now though, after that ramp and a half, i think December will be coldest, January will be mildest and February average - although it is interesting to see that Exacta weather, who offerred the world that mouthwatering forecast a month or two ago for the upcoming winter, released their new forecast last week - and they are standing by their extreme cold and snowy scenario. The La Nina, coldish atlantic, blocking highs, poor summer forecast and fluctuating jet stream certainly support their theory...
I agree, but there are lag times to low solar activity, it started in 2007 but we didn't feel the effects until 2009 for example.
Also the Sun isn't as simple as that; it doesn't just follow uniform cycles every so often. Although activity is starting to pick up (although barely), it is the magnetic field in the Sun (which is still falling) and the absence of the 'rush to the poles' we normally see leading up to the maximum of a 'normal' cycle that are worrying. If this continues at the same rate, the field will drop below 1500 gauss by around 2013 (when the maximum is supposed to be), and the Sun's magnetic field will no longer be strong enough for the Sun to produce sunspots.
This 'rush to the poles' isn't happening this cycle (probably because of the magnetic field is too weak) and this has never been witnessed before, but it is likely the same happened just before the Maunder Minimum. If this happens, it's likely that solar cycle 25 will never happen.
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Hopefully we will see warm weather with high pressure dominating next week! But I predict that September will turn out quite cool and wet. I say this mainly because the past few years (2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 is turning out the same) have all followed a pretty much identical pattern! Which is:
Cold and quite dry early in the year with snowy spells in early January and then mid February. Late snowfalls around late March - early April.
Spring and early summer start very warm and very dry with drought watches often issued.
Moving into August we start seeing more showery weather and things cool down closer to September and it becomes rather wet and miserable (you might think this is obvious but I remember in earlier years late Augusts and early Septembers were hot, hazy and muggy but dry).
Autumns are cool and wet at first but turn dry and cold with frequent frosts from mid to late September, with winter setting in early (first snow around mid to late November - it was in October in 2008!) and long blocking patterns throughout most of December leading to a white Christmas. Blocking patterns breaking down Christmas day or Boxing day (every year without fail!!!)
So far 2011 is following this same pattern so far so I'm also predicting another cold winter, which should set in early - mid December.
Without doubt this is caused by the continuation of a quiet (yet trying to perk up!) Sun causing changes in pressure patterns and causing blocking in winter.
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I predicted a few months back on the extended outlook thread that September would be terrible! I said this because the past few years (2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 is turning out the same) have all followed a pretty much identical pattern! Which is:
Cold and quite dry Januaries and then a brief snowy spell in February. Late snowfalls around late March - early April.
Spring and early summer start very hot and very dry with drought watches often issued.
Moving into August we start seeing more showery weather and things cool down closer to September and it becomes rather wet and miserable (you might think this is obvious but I remember in earlier years late Augusts and early Septembers were hot, hazy and muggy).
Autumns are cold with frequent frosts from September, with winter setting in early (first snow around mid - late November and as early as October in 2008!) and long blocking patterns leading to a white Christmas.
So far 2011 is following this same pattern so I'm also predicting a cold winter, which should set in early December.
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Witnessed 2 or 3 small thunderstorms yesterday (with a strike every 3 minutes or so) merge into one huge supercell type storm with almost constant thunder! Was pretty interesting!
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Do the Metoffice actually have weather stations positioned around Mars? I can imagine it's very difficult to plot a reliable temperature series on a planet we don't actually inhabit.
Pfft. The MO can't predict the weather back here on Earth more than a day in advance.
NASA have actually been monitoring Mars' temperature since the '70s.
Just found this which kind of explains some of it.
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Obviously new to the forum to imagine that I would be an AGW proponent.
My point remains valid, and I disagree with the notion that the current increase in greenhouse gases is like any other historical case, a response only to warming temperatures.
That is one of those reverse lies that the ultra-skeptics have thrown out to counter what they perceive to be the big lies of the AGW lobby.
Two wrongs do not make a right. A more reasonable analysis is that the modern increase in greenhouse gases can be linked to human activity, and that it has imparted some upward direction to temperatures, although by what amount and through what exact set of changes in atmospheric chemistry and circulation, worthy of an even fuller debate than may have already occurred.
While some may think it is "cute" to counter distortions with other distortions, I find that it slows down the legitimate criticism of AGW by setting up easily disproven and frankly ridiculous conspiracy-like theories. The rise in greenhouse gases is at least 80% from human activity and while it may now be accompanied by a slight component that resembles previous natural cycles, that does not excuse the blatant attempt to distort the complex and if I may so, subtle, debate that is required to understand these issues.
I understand everyone is starting to get sidetracked here and I appologise! But it is true that a rise in SSTs causes more CO2 to be released as the waters are less dense but that is probably a minute amount. The large amount of strong El Ninos recently could back this up.
Of course skeptics have tried disproving the theories! It would be strange for them not to. But AGW has been taken to far in general.
The other thing is that although CO2 is rising dramatically on Earth, the temperature changes on Mars in recent years directly corrolate to those experienced on Earth. So Al Gore, do Martians drive around in Range Rovers too? No, so this also points towards a factor that is possibly on a Solar cyclic scale.
Please let's not gabble on about global warming on this topic though!
I was relying on you understanding the difference between a mini ice age caused by a slumbering Sun and AGW. So there is no confusion, the validity (or otherwise) of the theory of AGW has a home in the Climate area of the forum. The discussion in this thread is about a natural phenomena, completely unconnected to that discussion. There is room in this thread for the cross over area of that discussion on the impact upon temperatures, and whether or not the expected impact of AGW can counter any fall due to a deep minima.
What there is absolutely no room for in this thread are statements of belief on the theory of AGW, nor statements of the political implications - the place for those is here: http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/105-climate-and-environment/. Please do join in, you will of course be expected to provide scientific evidence/peer reviewed papers to support your stance.
I understand, I was actually replying to someone who brought it up but i'll shut up now!
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The area to discuss Climate Change can be found here: http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/105-climate-and-environment/
Oh, I wasn't aware that a mini ice age has absolutely nothing to do with a change in climate.
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As to the question of a real ice age, that would seem to be tens of thousands of years into the future since the Milankovitch factors do not change very quickly towards the ice age signature in this current inter-glacial, and one might imagine that either we'll have the technology to overcome that next ice age, or that greenhouse gas levels will stabilize at levels that might prevent glaciation in that distant future time.
You do know 'greenhouse gasses' increase with temperature not the other way round, and i am amazed that you think 'AGW' (which doesn't really exist) can prevent a glacial occurring!
Also they have strategically dropped the term 'global warming' and replaced it with 'climate change/disruption' because that way i covers everything and if the Earth was to cool instead of heat, they could say "see! We told you it would change!"
Of course it will change, it has done forever and we cannot control the fact!
Please don't buy into what the mass media tells you, and don't fall for what is the biggest money-making scam of all time!
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The Daily Telegraph has a report on this - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/8578014/New-Little-Ice-Age-in-store.html
I wonder what she means by global warming though. If she means anthropgenic global warming (from human activity - which doesn't actually exist) then no chance!
I can't believe people are so arrogant to think we can out-do mother nature and over power The Sun!
If we were an inch closer or further away from The Sun, we would boil or freeze respectively. That's how much a tiny change in solar enery can effect us!
Just look at the size of The Sun and the amount of energy it harvests. We are nothing compared to it and no matter what we do, we will never be able to change that!
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Is it just me that's noticed a new pattern that has emerged in these past few years following low solar activity?
Every year now seems to be the same:
Spring usually starts quite early but with the odd cold snap, and late spring and very early summer start off very warm and dry.
As summer goes on it gradually deteriorates, and by late July early August we start to see much cooler, wetter weather.
We have quite a cold autumn and there are an abundance of berries. (supposed to foresee a cold winter!)
Winter sets in very early with a lot of cold and snow before Christmas, it gets slightly milder at around Christmas and then colder again for another week or two after.
I'm not sure about anyone else, but in West Yorkshire this EXACT same pattern has repeated since 2008!
Since this spring has turned out early, warm and very dry, we will have to wait and see what summer brings. If it starts to turn cooler and wetter as we move further into summer then I'm not going to argue against another early cold winter!
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Last winter and the winter before came in just below average overall. The last two winters haven't been cold, only the individual months.
But I agree if anywhere is going to be hit by cooling, it will be Northwest Europe (and also SE USA). We will really have to see what happens as exceptional cold isn't guaranteed, it's almost like seeing an ideal synoptic setup in FI - the possibility is there but we don't know whether it'll move into reality.
Yes, but these individual cold months were caused by a shift in the jet stream causing a blocking pattern. This is caused by low solar activity, but they have only been lasting for a few weeks at most, if the sun remains quiet then it's possible the blocking patterns could remain for a matter of months! That's when we would have a real problem and possibly a return to Maunder Minimum type conditions.
just found this: http://www.sciencene..._be_a_no-show__
I just think the reason why most people don't think the Earth will cool, is because they were looking forward to sunbathing in January, as the mass media has portrayed in the past few years!
We're about average at the moment!
(not to brag 
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Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2011/12
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Is this not the same as yesterday's picture? haha
Anyway, would you say the current snow and ice extent is compared to the average? It looks to me like there's a bit more than there was this time last year, but I don't know how that is compared to the average.