NO LONGER POSTING

If I was a betting man, based on how things have panned out from early Autumn, I would suggest 2 weeks of Zonal mixed weather. Very typical of the time of year as the vortex does try and find its feet. Remember all the very deep cold air has to gather in one place at some point in the first third of winter. (Usually) It is pretty typical for December to be more stormy than Autumn of late, one reason being it seems we get "late summers" now in early Autumn more often than not due to very large areas of high pressure that are hard to shift. If it was winter it would be very cold and dry under the highs but being late Autumn and residual heat left from summer and the still average day light it is warm(ish) This does not mean that we write winter of as some seem to do every time the Atlantic fires up. In fact as we have all seen today, when you have lows diving through the country wrapping cold air from the North with them it can lead to some surprises. More often than not for us does south it means very windy and wet. For me, Winter does not start or really get going till late January, this could also be to do with the theory of season shift that is associated with climate change in our part of the world. Summer is later, Spring is later and so on... What happens is the weather that we have all just been through with some seeing quite a lot of snow further North sets a precedent of what the whole of winter will be, however the drivers of storm Arwen and the cold experienced in the last week are very complex and a series of things around the world lead to that storm system and its track. This can be viewed on the Met office website. Really, our coldest months are January and February with February being the snowiest. However, the weather will do what the hell it likes and we just try decipher 100s of model outputs and basic theories of what may happen, really it is all a massive guess!

I checked every high res model last night to just see if there was anything floating about... nothing... wake up this morning heavy snow. so I too am some what confused but always expect the unexpected in cold weather! 2 days of seeing falling snow, okay, hardly anything but beats about 5 or 6 winters in the last 10 years of never seeing a flake! And its only the 2nd December!

Eased off now and it only settled in heavier bursts unfortunately Touch to warm at 1.9c but amazing to see

Heavy settling snow... wtf

A heavy dusting if that's a thing here this morning in Surrey Very festive... side roads a bit tricky with so much ice.

Heavy 50p flakes Kinda settling

If it can nudge about 25-30 miles more east loads of the region in the game if it holds it together

Hard call this... Most high res models do not agree on each other so a real now cast situation. Plus that is if it falls as snow and not rain... I think western parts of region stand a good chance of seeing a few flakes if it can hold it together and arrive as late as possible so lower temps

Saw the feature yesterday on high res didnt make to much of it... now looks like some may get a dusting from it!

Plenty more of these to come I think if the HIGH RES models are right... Wind starting to pick up here now

Hmm wouldn't rule out a couple of rumbles of thunder and some pretty lively showers down the Eastern part of our region later today. Probably a mix of hail rain and sleet but still... Better than the last 6-8 weeks of nothingness @Blessed Weather @Nick F thoughts... LOL seems to me like a small disturbance in the flow... assume associated with the that trough that travels from North to South

Currently 3.2c here so rain only. But just going a few miles up the road and slightly higher elevation and a few flakes mixed in. We are currently sitting with the centre of the low just passed south now. Winds are going to steadily increase through the morning and afternoon with some pretty hefty gusts of wind in exposed places. as of 7am: ICON 7am By mid afternoon parts of the region gusting 40-50mph touch more I would imagine on hills and coasts. ICON 3PM AROME 3PM ARPEGE 3PM Thankfully we have dodge the worst of this storm, lots of damage in the areas highlighted by the met yesterday.

Quite a potent rain band this one.. Some big totals I would have thought by lunch time with the added problem of very squally winds... Be careful if travelling this morning!

Slightly confused by that met office thunderstorm warning which has now finished but there are more showers now than earlier. You can see how strong the upper winds are by how elongated the showers are on the radar. These showers are mixing the pretty strong winds above down to the surface. Not just under them but also around them. You can actually see the wind gusts pick up as they move by or over you.

Was about to say, 17.8c I had on my weather station at 5am this morning.. that has to be putting the all time night time temp record in October under threat?

Winds dropped to nothing after a bit of a breeze earlier.. nothing out the ordinary. 12.4mm of rain recorded so far today and still falling

Wind speed is definitely increasing here... gusting a little even this far inland.. Seems like there is some embedded convection within the main rain band so could be a few rumbles of thunder

Noticed my weather station is reading 16.7c this morning! Very sticky feeling here! Bit tropical like

Judging by this mornings radar returns yes.. And a lot of head scratching going on a well as it seems the system and main bulk of the rain is way further east than forecast.. The arome back tracked its idea last night to something similar to what's showing on radar this morning..

Was literally about to post.. Not often you see something like that so close to our shores..

bit Warm out... NOICE!

Mum in Herne Bay said they had a wicked storm this morning

It was intense! No wonder people have been flooded by these downpours! Never had such intense rain for such a long period of time... Finally stopped here

Torrential rain here now for over an hour.. some seriously impressive rainfall rates for such a long period of time.. When I mean we are flooded the garden is just water.. the road out front is flooded... Luckily they built all the houses up!

Lovely blue skies when I woke up but that mass of heavy rain is making inroads quick into Western areas.. Could be a few hours of quite heavy rain! Plants are loving it! My Giant pumpkin vine is now well over 8m long and snakes around the veg patch into the main garden. Have been picking off flowers and keeping 2 or 3 main pumpkins. So far one is over the size of a water melon now with the second very close to catching up!