P-M
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Posts posted by P-M
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10 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
Will need to monitor how things progress in the coming hours, a fair amount of cloud moving northwards at the moment, this mornings system has been rather poorly modelled by both the UKV & AROME.
Very complex forecasting day today. If all goes to plan, there is the potential for some very active thunderstorms, likely large hail (2-4CM) associated with supercell thunderstorms and the risk of locally severe wind gusts (60-70MPH). Most favoured region appears to be N/NW England will initiation likely across the Midlands somewhere with storms tracking NNE from that point.
The increased cloud cover however may serve to limit maximum potential being reached, but we'll see. Tricky, exciting. Goodluck to all those chasing! Potentially the most active day of the year *IF* all goes to plan.Weird enough the 2012 thunder Thursday event that flooded the northeast from a supercell started in the Preston area then traveled NNE to our region. Similar set up today so who knows although that event really did cause some serious destruction in these parts.
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Tony Gilbert's take on today from UK Weather world. He's usually bang on too so I'm happy with this outlook!
Please let me see a decent storm!
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17 minutes ago, Azazel said:
I’m gonna go for something a bit further north today I reckon - Newcastle down to Stockton in the east and then Blackpool down towards Manchester in the west.
Definitely feel Newcastle/Sunderland area will be ‘lit’ later on
Let's hope you're right lol!
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Most unstable day here for a long time. These to my south now they're popping up everywhere.
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Another discreet cell incoming. Can hear thunder from it from my south west..
Edit direct thunder overhead now
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Just now, Cloud 10 said:
Looks like a direct hit for Sunderland.
It was. Genuinely still going with constant booming thunder and lightning. 🌩
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Amazing storm this compared to the dross of the last few years.
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Heavy hail now and constant thunder!
Unbelievable this storm like. Best one in years by far.
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The cells in the North east have merged by the looks of this. Constant thunder all around me.
Far far the best day for a storm in a long time here.
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Angry sky incoming with regular IC lightning and thunder. No filter needed!
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Near constant thunder to my west now and boy is it loud. Last bang literally rattled the windows lol.
Lovely!! Sounds angry as hell!
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3 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:
Torrential rain here now with thunder
Yeah can see on the radar. Meanwhile the neighbours here are having a BBQ and it smells lush
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6 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:
One just missed here by 5 miles could see the lightning and it’s still thundering away
To be fair I did hear a rumble from somewhere but was very distant.
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5 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:
Plenty of time plenty of energy available still
Thunder now just to my east
Well I'm genuinely not expecting anything but I'll be happy if we do end up with a decent storm
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7 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:
Keep the faith it’s coming this time . Very humid here if we get nothing today i will be extremely surprised
I wish I could keep the faith SB but genuinely can't see how? We're gonna be left with a load of clag once this squall passes through
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Well the North east is in the high risk zone but I'm calling it a bust lol
I know some people will jump on that but today is going the way the last plume went and that's the shape of the pear for these parts.
Good to see other areas getting some lightning though. 🌩
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All the electrical activity has died off it seems to my south. Hence why I said I wasn't getting excited today. Looks to just be heavy convective rain incoming now.
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To my south and west. Going up all over to be fair.
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Trundling steadily north easwards and remaining fairly active!
Still hot and humid with unstable blue skies here in the north east. And a strong on shore breeze.
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2 minutes ago, Azazel said:
Slate grey sky with some bursts of rain mixed it - smells and feels like one of those humid, dank Autumn mornings.
The wait for a storm goes on and on.
It's usually the other way around for us as we are usually slate grey skies!
Today however it's humid, moist, hot and sunny in Tyne and Wear!
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Discreet little cell to my south. Can see towers going up all around to the south west of me as well.
This cell has since become electrified albeit it's quite small at the moment. Current trajectory would be an almost direct hit so will see what happens.
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I'm not even getting excited after the last major let down lol. Last week up here the North Sea got pasted and pounded with lightening just off the coast.
Good luck everyone!
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Well I'm calling it a day now. I've been optimistic enough. Sickening that those storms matured literally just a few miles from me but off the coast. Couldn't have chased them even if I'd wanted to.
Some beasts in there although moved really quick by the looks of things. Air is nice and fresh outside now.
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Just now, northriding said:
Sun's still shining here.
Even with the hit and miss nature of storms, I'm surprised that I haven't even heard a distant rumble of thunder, which is a pretty low bar to reach with today's storm risk.
It's crazy and sickening how they explode at the coast lol
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Well sky is thick of clouds, slate grey and it's humid as hell.
Not sure if anything else will kick off here as looks like it'll just be heavy rain this afternoon but you never know.
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Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by P-M
Looking at the CAPE charts the NE doesn't look very indicative of thunderstorms if that's a key ingredient. Unless I'm reading it wrong?
Current sky in Washington at the moment...feels really humid and wet out there today.