P-M
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Posts posted by P-M
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I take back what I said about being good for some parts of the region this morning. The showers aren't even making it a few miles inland now
It's been snowing in roughly the same spot for 45 minutes and to make it worse its literally right next to my house but not quite far enough!
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Snowing lightly in Washington this morning. What a nice little surprise to wake up to about cm of snow considering how dry it's been here! Looking at the radar it looks promising for a few areas of our region so time to open my blinds, get the heating on and whack the PS5 on and enjoy. Either way it's baltic out there with a hard frost- very festive
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10 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:
No mate everything is fine. Hopefully get a covering later on today. I'm not after snowmageddon just want an inch or two on the ground to look festive. If we can get that sooner rather than later it will probably stick around for a good while. Here's hoping.
I agree it's frustrating like. But give me a convective easterly over frontal snow any day of the week lol
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4 minutes ago, AdrianHull said:
Radar looking promising later on this morning
It does. I'm away to Edinburgh this morning so hoping to see a few flakes.
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1 hour ago, Continental Climate said:
That's fair enough, but I said I don't hold much chance until this Sunday when the wind veers more easterly. You are saying not for another week until an easterly. I'm saying before that and I posted a chart to highlight this.
I think you've mistook my post as I was only trying to inject some positivity. Meaning it doesn't matter its a few days at the beginning of winter with loads to offer on the plate. I honestly wouldn't be concerned. Let the south have the snow over the weekend Wednesday next week will be here soon enough. Not sure if you think I was having a dig I genuinely wasn't.
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3 hours ago, Continental Climate said:
I'm not holding much hope of anything until sunday morning at the earliest when we get a more easterly wind. Even though its a slack uninspiring wind. Certainly no BFTE here. This spell could well be one where we have to endure reports of all the snow hitting further south.
Have you not seen the meto 10 day analysis? There saying mid next week 70% chance of easterly bringing snow showers into the east coast.
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Genuinely hacked off now
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1 hour ago, Mick Ormiston said:
Evening mate
Evening mate not sure why it's edited your comment lol
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4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
A severe cold spell got snatched away literally 4 days before the event was about to begin!!!one of the worse feelings for us snow lovers on this forum ever!!!!!
But this year looks and feels different. The synoptics are mouthwatering in places. Another great set of runs, cold already setting in, what more can we ask for! We'd be literally the unluckiest place on earth for cold and snow if we don't bag something from this like.
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8 hours ago, Rollo said:
Things looking much better this morning, as things stand if we do not get a dumping in the next 2 weeks I will be amazed.
I agree. Could we be on the cusp of something quite rare these days? Only time will tell!
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10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Thursday morning coming into range of the highest resolution UKV model. Appears to be showing a deeper cold airmass than the other models. 850hPa temperatures -5°C to -8°C across England and Wales. -7°C to -11°C for Northern Ireland and Scotland. The cold air still moving south at this stage.
And a decent chunk of northern England in -9 to -10 there. Excellent to see this moving closer to reliable now!
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Back on track guys and girls! I genuinely thought we would mind that ECM run just didn't look right.
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Well well well.... what do we have here? A flip back from the ECM with entrenched cold and snow for a lot of people?
Where's the momentum now! I'm happy with this run this morning. Get in there.
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3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:theyre not supporting the op... but more of them have now moved towards the op than before... meaning it has gathered momentum. momentum doesnt stop.
By your own words then the momentum for a decent cold spell wouldn't stop either?
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3 hours ago, Cloud 10 said:
I would expect some really heavy North sea showers from the predicted set-up next week at the best of times,but even more so due to sea surface temperatures being well above normal,creating increased instability.with hail and thunder quite likely amogst the snow showers.
Looks like quite a lengthy cold spell coming up as it stands.
The model thread has imploded tonight
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1 minute ago, MJB said:
No No apologies , you didn't say it would be a deep freeze , I am just pointing out we might just end up having average December temps . We really need to see where this sits in the ENS , this current ECM run and blown the GH to bits
It's a volatile situation for sure. But i don't think it looks right even to my untrained eye. There again it could be and that's the beauty of the weather and this hobby of model watching. See what happens over the weekend mate.
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Just now, MJB said:
Day time temps of 4-6c are rather Decemberish - lets not big this up , the good thing is it's only the start of December , get some reality into the coming week - freeze up it isn't and was never going to be.
You're missing the point. I never said a deep freeze in any post what I've said of potential. It's 1 run. Maybe if things are downgrading over the weekend then I'll concede but there could be plenty other opportunities with the current NH profile. I'm not going to get hung on on this run. If it fails it fails but people aren't looking at the wider signals. I agree things may look less favorable based on that but there's still plenty to be optimistic about at this moment in time is my point.
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6 minutes ago, MJB said:
Or bust - it's backed off a bit , your post is a tad misleading .
Yes it will be chilly but just Decemberish
I stand to be corrected but there's nothing Decemberish from that chart below. -8 uppers across a chunk of northern England and Scotland. But actually looking at 850s from almost a week out really will fray the nerves. Look at the bigger picture and that Greenland high! Potential all around I say.
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So I've finished work, jumped in to this forum to see pages and pages and thought game on! But then I look through and it's literally like the end of this cold spell before it's even began. Having looked through the runs this afternoon I'm baffled by some responses.
In fact a professional forecaster has done a great post a few pages back stating a significant risk of intense wintry showers from next week. Cold still locked and loaded, synoptics full of potential and the 528 dam line in a decent place for us on this little island.
Maybe I'm a glass half full sort of lad but if anyone is downbeat about what's being projected from a coldie perspective then there's nothing left to say. Yes it's all risks and potential at this stage but come on what is there to not get excited about. If the models backtrack completely and the whole thing breaks down then fair enough but we're on the precipice of some decent cold weather here.
This forum taught me something many years ago that I think rings true... get the cold in first and the rest will follow.
Although I'm not comparing these runs to 2010 what I will say is that as the days went on the showers and disturbances in the flow grew and there were nights where the weather took everyone by surprise at literally T-0.
I don't think we're hunting for cold anymore, rather just need to pin down the finer details. I see the latest episode as intra model volatility that will sort itself out one way or the other.
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9 hours ago, Continental Climate said:
So how do people think the NE will do in the next 10 days or so? Any chance of a few surprises over the weekend?
I'm really optimistic. Northerly or easterly we can do really well on the coast and these showers can be driven far inland.
Best chance by far for a long time!
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Here we go again. Another set of runs that reinforce the excellent prospects of a good cold spell. Brilliant NH profile with blocking between Greenland and Scandanavia going forward, snow chances increasing and literally one of the best chances we have of cold and snow into the UK. And here we go again with the looking for breakdowns, posting 850s from day 10, commenting how this is not a good run and not appreciating how much of an amazing position we're in compared to recent years. As I've said I'd have given anything to get these types of synoptics this is not the "standard winter outlook" that people seem to think it is.
If people aren't happy with this mornings outputs and the relative consistency then they'll never be happy.
Plenty people and places are in with a decent shot and this mornings runs just confirm that to me.
Have a good day everyone and stay positive. It ain't over until the fat Bartlett sings!
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13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
I've only seen a few polar lows in my time, Si... I don't believe they don't have associated fronts, warm sectors? Over to JH!
I recall one in the November 2010 spell that pummeled the East Coast up here for hours. I seem to remember John H looking at a screen grab I sent him and it looked like a sea horse shape funnily enough as I tracked it across the North sea. Was immense the snowfall from it.
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2 minutes ago, MJB said:
Not sure, but even if it did it proves nothing , the 46 was dreadful throughout last Winter , currently that's all I can go on.
That may be but fortunately this year we have relative consistency with the bigger picture and the best NH profile we've seen for years. Plenty to be excited about this year. If it all goes wrong then we can all cry together
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Far north and northeast of England weather discussion
in Far Nth and NE of England Weather Discussion
Posted
To be fair that last shower eventually moved over and dropped some more. About 2cm in total (ish) from last night. Can't believe how dry it is if I'm honest. Give me a screaming easterly any day of the week.
Fingers crossed!!