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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
P-M replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I agree with you. I was responding to the other poster about northerlies being a damp squib. All of the above I agree with as it loads with potential. Great starting point for a December. -
Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
P-M replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Depends where you are in the country. I've seen significant showers pushing down the North east coast in a screaming northerly although I agree its perhaps not the best for inland areas or those living further south. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
P-M replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
When will people learn not to hang on every run? Some of the pub run comments last night are laughable and just confusing. The bigger picture looks the best we've had in years, blocking galore and a set up that really could deliver. None of that has changed but you'd think with some of the comments on here that 1 GFS run and we're going back to south westerlies and mild temps. Or the BBC weather will backtrack today. Honestly it's the same every year and the seasoned forecasters and members on here will tell you.... look at the bigger picture! Which I'd have given anything to have in recent years what we're seeing at the moment. Enjoy the hunt and thank you to this thread and forum for what it provides to this community it really is brilliant. -
Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
P-M replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Hopefully the dice will land in our favor this time! -
Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
P-M replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Not sure if this has already been posted somewhere, but really interesting read about the polar vortex and how it's already being disrupted. The article suggests some bigger implications for the NH as winter progresses. Weather: An early disruption event is starting for the Polar Vortex, with pressure anomalies setting the stage for something bigger later in Winter » Severe Weather Europe WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU A stratospheric disruption event is starting over the North Pole, affecting the Polar Vortex and potentially having an impact on the... -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
P-M replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Some intra cloud flashes and bangs before shotgun thunder overhead here in Washington. Not a big storm but some decent rainfall with it. I'm happy with that! -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards
P-M replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Far east of England meaning east anglia etc? -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards
P-M replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Do you think there's any chance of them moving north into Northern England? I'm really disappointed tonight! -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards
P-M replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
It's weird because by the time it moved only 30 miles north (pervious storm) it was moderate to heavy rain and some distant rumbles. Not expecting anything else tonight if I'm honest or if I do it'll be a massive bonus. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards
P-M replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Not the storm I was wanting though lol You honestly couldn't make this up. Merges grows then dies as it makes a direct hit over my location. Some heavy rain though which has taken the edge of the humidity I suppose. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards
P-M replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I can hear the thunder now. Sky is turning a deep slate grey so here hoping! Its still a few miles south of me yet. The cells to the east of me have activated too now I can hear thunder from both sides. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards
P-M replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
10 minutes apart... come on keep it going Edit: appears there is nothing electrical from this now on the lightning maps. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards
P-M replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Cheers Cakie it looks like it's grown a little. See if it makes it this far! -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards
P-M replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Is anyone under that cell trundling towards Tyne and Wear? Wonder if it's just a standard thundery shower. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards
P-M replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I'm the little red dot near Sunderland. Would be great if that cell near Darlington grows a little more to the east and stays electrical I'm finding it hard to work out which direction they're going in, north or northeast?? -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards
P-M replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I think I've been watching this cell on the radar for a while now. It's breaking away from the main bit of PPN from what I can see and has / is definitely intensifying as it moves north. Not sure if it will maintain, grow or just fizzle out yet. I try not to get too excited in these set ups lol -
Thanks for sharing these MWB. Can I just ask where these are from? Are there any that show further south and the wind gusts later in the evening / overnight period? I'm curious about North east England and populated areas etc
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It is but it stretches miles inland too. So Sunderland right on the coast yes I'd expect but places further inland I was curious. Newcastle is few miles inland and Washington where I am part of Sunderland but about 7 miles as the crow flies inland. I can't recall seeing charts like this for low lying areas this close to a wind event it's crazy.
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