Daniel Miller

Hmm.. I wonder what the probability of the 1074hr chart verifying is? haaa... Could someone tell me, what is the actual point to that? It seems like a waste of electricity to produce, even if it does look pretty..

That's true, but compared to the runs of the ECM, GFS etc. that is a minute detail. It could just as easily be back over me next time around (I hope) In the grand scheme of things though, I would rather somewhere in the country got snow, rather than nowhere, as at least that would mean it may get a bit colder at the least!

I may be wrong but I would think that at times like this, the FAX charts would be the best charts to follow, seeing as they do not suffer from such diversity... They come purely from the minds that had the ability to MAKE the models in the first place, and so should be able to give us a decent picture, I would have thought.

I've not been able to check the models today so I was wondering if someone could tell me if the ECM has stayed as good as before? Also, I came on earlier for 5 and I saw many comments about how people would be surprised in the ECM DIDN'T back down... I thought it would be a surprise if it DID, rather, seeing as it has been consistent :/ One other thing... Do the models show cold arriving from the N or the E, potentially? Thanks Also.. Has anyone noticed the complete lack of worldwide snow stories this winter? Last winter and the one before that they were rolling in from Wisconsin, China, New York, Chicago, here.... Odd. Seems to be a worldwide lack of snow?

Thanks for the reply I'll be honest, this is probably the most unsure I've seen the models and this forum since I joined. Everything is so volatile, changing every single run to something different! From what I can gather, the setup we're currently in is one that has many different doors leading out from it.. Hopefully we can get the right one!

Hmm... Where WOULD the cold be coming from, if it were to come later this month? All I can see on that run is when the uppers are cold enough for snow, we have high pressure over us, which wouldn't really deliver, would it? :S Also, if we do get cold, could it be a long term event or just a business week thing?

If that's what he said then I'll take it! Seem to get better snow/cold from the NW, being in Wales Out of interest, is there such a thing as a trend through a particular time of run e.g a set of 18z constantly showing the same thing but changing on the other runs?

Let's be honest, you can't say with any certainty what will happen mid January, and neither can the models. GP's thoughts are a forecast, he isn't 100% sure. He is say what may be likely to happen. Why do you say "the models say this" for a time that is weeks out? I find it hard to take anyone seriously when they talk about what the models show in 3 weeks time. For long term, I would rather go on the thoughts of the knowledgeable people such as GP, Michael Fish and BFTP as they have a human input on matters. Does anyone know how UKMO charts do for accuracy, out of interest?

Merry Christmas to all! Dreadful weather atm but what can you do haha. Hopefully a change in the New Year- Though preferably after Jan 20th as I have A Level exams! Something about the models to keep certain people happy, idk why though, it IS Christmas GFS looks a rather mixed bag, neither horribly mild nor freezing cold, hope it's drunk on the sherry.

Ahh good on her! Must be a bit busy then! I suppose a bit of a storm would be ok. My mate hate would be 12c and drizzle, that HAS to be the worst weather known to man. Yeah, it's mad to think of the difference! I'm sure we will be topping that later in the winter though

Haha, it's quite mad that people who disregard what the models show in 2 weeks time can actually what that nonsense shows for 3 months time! As you said, it's only an average. We could have a heatwave the first half of January and then the deepest cold on record for the second half and it would come out like that.

Aww shucks :/ Blue sky and a little bit of rain now :/ Oh well, was fun while it lasted! Wales123098: Thanks for that, yes unfortunately the cold is no-where near the same level as last year Andymusic: Yes it wasn't bad was it How did your wife's thing go on Thursday btw? Does anyone know what Christmas day looks like atm? II don't really mind so long as it's not raining!

Ok. Nowit's randomly sleeting? Wth? And now it's snowing rather heavily. Not sticking though :/

Haha. Just had a server busy message so couldn't refresh! Got a bit nervous. Someone I know say's it's snowing where they live, further up the valleys so I guess it's a sit and wait exercise for me atleast. Wishing Andymusic would hurry up and get back home! We need his upbeat spirit to get us all optimistic

Wow. All I've had is v.v.v light rain all night. Stick my arm out the window and it feels like I have slight pins and needles. Doesn't seem like I'm going to get anything close to a cm even

From the model thread- Doesn't look too bad unless you live on the coast!

What is that in laymans terms?

Ahh ok What do you reckon, will we be hit or miss? Regarding the NAE v GFS. It would be interesting to see who is better at placing short term lows etc. as a better guide as to which one to "trust".

Haa that's true.. I haven't looked at the charts yet because I'm watching a film so I'm just going on what they say. When Ferguson says "dire", what exactly does he mean? :S

Yeah I would probably cry, especially as they say S.E England will get some! WHY them? Thing is it is hard to track the exact path of these lows so they will be shifting about from run to run. You sure? The general thought is that it decreases our chances? :/

Hmm.. Word on the model thread is that snow risk has decreased for S.Wales, which includes you and me :S

Ah ok andy, thanks Ooohh. They're there! Look good aswell! That is heavy snow if I'm not mistaken?

Nooo :'( We must have a service for it some time Ahh cool Enjoy yourself, hope you pull up home as it starts haha On a more serious note, was it not a NW flow that brought us all the snow last December?:S

What would it mean if it was further south? Also, what are the expected accumulations for my area, do you know? or just generally? Thanks Also, to andy, where are your infamous charts of last winter? :o with the symbols, I loved those

Fingers crossed then! Hhaa. All I've had today is rain, sleet and heavy hail. A hail storm is currently happening