Daniel Miller
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Posts posted by Daniel Miller
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Agreed, but even thats downgraded slightly though, your location doesnt have any sub 528dam air anywhere near it, wheras last night it did.
That's true, but compared to the runs of the ECM, GFS etc. that is a minute detail. It could just as easily be back over me next time around (I hope)
In the grand scheme of things though, I would rather somewhere in the country got snow, rather than nowhere, as at least that would mean it may get a bit colder at the least!
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I may be wrong but I would think that at times like this, the FAX charts would be the best charts to follow, seeing as they do not suffer from such diversity... They come purely from the minds that had the ability to MAKE the models in the first place, and so should be able to give us a decent picture, I would have thought.
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I've not been able to check the models today so I was wondering if someone could tell me if the ECM has stayed as good as before?
Also, I came on earlier for 5 and I saw many comments about how people would be surprised in the ECM DIDN'T back down... I thought it would be a surprise if it DID, rather, seeing as it has been consistent :/
One other thing... Do the models show cold arriving from the N or the E, potentially? Thanks
Also.. Has anyone noticed the complete lack of worldwide snow stories this winter? Last winter and the one before that they were rolling in from Wisconsin, China, New York, Chicago, here.... Odd. Seems to be a worldwide lack of snow?
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At this moment in time nobody can be specific.
When you have such varied model output its difficult to find a trend. However despite the varying model output it does look possible that we might see the pattern changing. This change could be the PV finally backing W with HP extending from Russia to Svalbard. However at the moment we don't know exactly when or if this will occur and how cold the weather may become.
Thanks for the reply
I'll be honest, this is probably the most unsure I've seen the models and this forum since I joined. Everything is so volatile, changing every single run to something different! From what I can gather, the setup we're currently in is one that has many different doors leading out from it.. Hopefully we can get the right one!
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Hmm... Where WOULD the cold be coming from, if it were to come later this month?
All I can see on that run is when the uppers are cold enough for snow, we have high pressure over us, which wouldn't really deliver, would it? :S
Also, if we do get cold, could it be a long term event or just a business week thing?
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Didnt GP mention NW and N for the cold not east anyway. When was the last time a very decent easterly happend?? Patience is required. Im still learning, but my word, I cannot stress enough some posts are like chalk and cheese!!
If that's what he said then I'll take it! Seem to get better snow/cold from the NW, being in Wales
Out of interest, is there such a thing as a trend through a particular time of run e.g a set of 18z constantly showing the same thing but changing on the other runs?
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It is called hopecasters.
There is no sustained cold weather in the models until at least mid January.
The same hopecasters were here last January predicting sustained cold and heavy snow which never happened.
Let's be honest, you can't say with any certainty what will happen mid January, and neither can the models.
GP's thoughts are a forecast, he isn't 100% sure. He is say what may be likely to happen.
Why do you say "the models say this" for a time that is weeks out?
I find it hard to take anyone seriously when they talk about what the models show in 3 weeks time. For long term, I would rather go on the thoughts of the knowledgeable people such as GP, Michael Fish and BFTP as they have a human input on matters.
Does anyone know how UKMO charts do for accuracy, out of interest?
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Merry Christmas to all! Dreadful weather atm but what can you do haha.
Hopefully a change in the New Year- Though preferably after Jan 20th as I have A Level exams!
Something about the models to keep certain people happy, idk why though, it IS Christmas
GFS looks a rather mixed bag, neither horribly mild nor freezing cold, hope it's drunk on the sherry.
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the mrs is still at it - has ten shows as Whitney in the Newbridge Hotel - no.6 show tonight - it's a wonder her voice is holding out - xmas day looks zonal to me - westerly flow of usual weather with the odd bit of pm air mixed in - in fact xmas eve into xmas day we may get another windy storm - seems to be cropping up on the models quite a bit. These wintry showers keep piling through here, just not cold enough for anything significant - good mind in one way - last year the mrs had to cancel loads of work cause she couldn't get to work with the freeze - amazing to think of where we were last year - icicles a couple of feet long, 2 ft of snow in places, I had to bring the xmas food shop in by sledge!
definitely more shower activity than even the GFS or nae progged today - I thought it was gonna be fairly dry - how wrong they were!
Ahh good on her! Must be a bit busy then!
I suppose a bit of a storm would be ok. My mate hate would be 12c and drizzle, that HAS to be the worst weather known to man. Yeah, it's mad to think of the difference! I'm sure we will be topping that later in the winter though
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Oh the infamous CFS charts!
You'd be better off reading the tea leaves, even if they were more accurate the problem is with them that they simply reflect what the overall month ends up to be, this can mask lots of variation within that month.
Personally I think they're a load of rubbish and I said the same thing last winter even when they progged below average temps down here in sw France for January and February, what we ended up having was the complete opposite!
Haha, it's quite mad that people who disregard what the models show in 2 weeks time can actually what that nonsense shows for 3 months time!
As you said, it's only an average. We could have a heatwave the first half of January and then the deepest cold on record for the second half and it would come out like that.
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Aww shucks :/ Blue sky and a little bit of rain now :/ Oh well, was fun while it lasted!
Wales123098: Thanks for that, yes unfortunately the cold is no-where near the same level as last year
Andymusic: Yes it wasn't bad was it
How did your wife's thing go on Thursday btw? Does anyone know what Christmas day looks like atm? II don't really mind so long as it's not raining!
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Ok. Nowit's randomly sleeting? Wth?
And now it's snowing rather heavily. Not sticking though :/
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Haha. Just had a server busy message so couldn't refresh! Got a bit nervous. Someone I know say's it's snowing where they live, further up the valleys so I guess it's a sit and wait exercise for me atleast.
Wishing Andymusic would hurry up and get back home! We need his upbeat spirit to get us all optimistic
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Wow. All I've had is v.v.v light rain all night. Stick my arm out the window and it feels like I have slight pins and needles. Doesn't seem like I'm going to get anything close to a cm even
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From the model thread- Doesn't look too bad unless you live on the coast!
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Yes, but the tropospheric pattern is changing initially independently of any stratospheric feedback.
What is that in laymans terms?
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More chance of heavy snow in the SWest .
Ahh ok
What do you reckon, will we be hit or miss? Regarding the NAE v GFS. It would be interesting to see who is better at placing short term lows etc. as a better guide as to which one to "trust".
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Calm down they not weathermen on forum, we will have rain after 6pm tomorrow but with the Lp further south we will drag the colder air further south which will turn the rain to snow further south quicker.
Haa that's true.. I haven't looked at the charts yet because I'm watching a film so I'm just going on what they say.
When Ferguson says "dire", what exactly does he mean? :S
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Yes it seems to have given more for new areas and taken every chance for us away. Thats a quote from BBC West forecaster in last few mins from his twitter account.
Nothing much for Devon and Cornwall either just his back yard area really. but you never know glass half full and all that.
I can handle the storm being nothing more than a breeze, but if everyone else gets snow and i get naff all then i will be miffed
Yeah I would probably cry, especially as they say S.E England will get some! WHY them?
Thing is it is hard to track the exact path of these lows so they will be shifting about from run to run.The low and so snow risk further south on latest NAE and GFS so the valleys could now be in firing line, even Cardiff etc too.
You sure? The general thought is that it decreases our chances? :/
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Well snow has increased further for Mid wales and right accross to South East England on latest NAE (18z)
Ian Fergusson quote " 18z NAE increases snow risk for the West Country†indeed. Could be truly dire Fri AM Cotswolds/M4 & elsewhere. Stay tuned..."
Hmm.. Word on the model thread is that snow risk has decreased for S.Wales, which includes you and me :S
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Ah ok andy, thanks
Ooohh. They're there! Look good aswell! That is heavy snow if I'm not mistaken?
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old weather online ones - website has now been scrapped and gone to website heaven! - awwwwwwwwww
a good percentage of Wales is gonna see a fair smattering of snow this time round overnight thursday/friday - i'll be out in newbridge till midnight assisting the mrs with her series of whitney houston tribute gigs - so lets hope we can get home before it gets bad - could be touch and go
Nooo :'( We must have a service for it some time
Ahh cool
Enjoy yourself, hope you pull up home as it starts haha On a more serious note, was it not a NW flow that brought us all the snow last December?:S
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Given the heaviness of the expected rain there could be widespread puddles. There is certainly potential for dangerous traveling conditions especially on the Heads of the Valleys.
However the track is not set it may still be further north or further south yet.
What would it mean if it was further south? Also, what are the expected accumulations for my area, do you know? or just generally? Thanks
Also, to andy, where are your infamous charts of last winter? :o with the symbols, I loved those
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all depends on the track of the low - lots of variables - but Wales has a good chance of some wintry weather off this, yes
Fingers crossed then! Hhaa. All I've had today is rain, sleet and heavy hail. A hail storm is currently happening
I'll be honest, this is probably the most unsure I've seen the models and this forum since I joined. Everything is so volatile, changing every single run to something different! 
Model Discussion - January 17th
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Hmm.. I wonder what the probability of the 1074hr chart verifying is? haaa...
Could someone tell me, what is the actual point to that? It seems like a waste of electricity to produce, even if it does look pretty..