AWD

I wish the ECM had a 132 hour chart. It would make things so much clearer. Compared to it's 0z run though, it has deepened the low and moved it a little further north now to sit just off the SW approaches at 120 hours. I doubt any model will stick to the same output for the next 4 days still though, so in reality we are no clearer now as to how we were at 16:00. The potential for a nasty storm is still there, the more uncertain aspect is not so much will it develop, but where will it track?

Including the Control run;

Stop reading the Express!!!

With the main model frames 6/12/24 hours apart from each other (dependant on which model), it's hard to gauge a true insight into a regional basis for where any severe weather may occur. The severest of the winds could only be a 2 hour event for example, and thus happen inbetween a set of frames for a specific time. High res modelling nearer the time might help evaluate a more precise and regionally specific insight into any severe weather that may occur.

A blog from Liam Dutton regarding Monday's possibilities too; http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/nasty-autumn-storm-monday/5190

There is actually an interesting little convo on twitter regarding Monday. Ian got asked;"At the moment, I know it's hard but do you have any predictions for Monday's weather?"His reply was the post I made above, which was;"Sufficient members from EC, GFS & MOGREPS to suggest possible severe wx BUT all manner of variance re evolution: jury out"Ian then got asked this;"Fair enough but please say we're nowhere near the Express headline 90MPH gales! They always get it wrong?"To which Ian replied the following;"Right now we can't rule out any solutions, but history shows us how fickle models are with handling this type of developments & not least at this forecast range. Even at short range, a N-S track difference of 50-100 miles has profound impact on outcome thus it goes without saying that Express headline was premature, unwarranted scaremongering. UKMO taking measured approach."Seems as though the possibility of something serious is there and the Met Office believe of this possibility. Rightly so though, they are being cautious and exploring all options before jumping to any conclusions though. Interesting times ahead!

An interesting snippet from Ian Fergusson regarding Monday's forecast; "Sufficient members from EC, GFS & MOGREPS to suggest possible severe wx BUT all manner of variance re evolution: jury out"

Will be interesting to see how this much hyped storm in the MOD thread being shown on some output for the start of next week develops over the next few days. The GFS 06z Op would certainly bring a distruptive spell of weather for some of us; Still a long way off in weather terms, but something to watch for over the coming days, especially if you have outdoor/travel plans.

GFS 06z at T120 for Southern England & South Wales; Certainly coming into a "one to watch" timeframe now. Will be more interested in the updated FAX charts tonight after all 12z model output. Storm of an era? Probably not. Storm of the decade so far? Maybe.

Latest Meto radar projection has a further squall like feature running across Southern England during the early hours; Can't rule out isolated tornadic activity along the South Coast with perhaps water spouts forming over the channel; All in all, a lively night to come for many of us.

Fratton Park looks unusable tonight;

Another batch of shower cells approaching the SW peninsula. These could affect areas further west than recent storms have tracked.

More shower cells heading NE out of Biscay. Looks like these are on track to affect areas further west than recent storms.

Along with the UKMO 12z output, there are still a modest number of GEFS members going for a deep autumnal low early next week; The Op one of the more "calmer" members. Still wouldn't rule anything out at this stage.

A couple of sferics recorded around the Yeovil area currently. Radar starting to sprout into life from all directions now.

Small ridge of pressure briefly nudges in on Weds/Thurs whilst we undergo a change in wind direction from our current Southerly/South Westerly mild airmass to the forecast westerly, more average airmass. Hardly noticeable on the NWP but it's there.Into the weekend and start of next week it's back to square one again with rain, wind and showers. This time in a relatively cooler airmass (compared to recently).

Latest from Ian; "Continuation of a wet-dry story today; some drier, brighter but windy weather this afternoon but lines of heavy showers this evening moving NE with potential 10-15mm p/hr; poss thundery. Some v squally winds with these, but a higher threat down on S Coast. Showers fade Weds AM; then dry/drier Weds-Thurs before more rain overnight into Fri. SAT looks decent enough albeit breezy ahead of further showery, windy weather developing SUN. This precedes v uncertain cyclonic development through into MON.

Whilst what is quoted above re. Express stories, big storm etc does look OTT based on current model output and is unlikely to manifest in such a dramatic fashion as what is being reported in the paper, it's probably wise to wait until the time in question has been and gone rather than totally rubbish any sense or credibility it may have already. Who knows what's around the corner.

Rain doesn't look as bad as was initially forecast IMO. Just a few hours of light rain likely here, main clump over Wales. Already starting to clear the SW leaving another day of scattered heavy showers coming up here.

Yeah I know. It hasn't been the luckiest period for us. Although, not following forecasts/models lately, this period has caught me a little by surprise. Anything this time of year is always a bonus too.

Gone very dark here with on/off sporadic pulses of rainfall, not too heavy though. Wind has picked up however. This should be an ongoing trend through the rest of the day too according to the forecasts, with gales along some coastal areas.

Judging by the radar it looks as though we may just catch the western edge of the mass. Don't think it's going to be too bad here although of course, sferics aren't always associated with the heaviest rainfall.

Latest NW-ATD map shows where the strikes currently are, mainly over Hampshire but also recently over South Wiltshire stretching down into South East Devon and Dorset. It's slowly clearing from these areas now though;

Latest NW-ATD map shows where the strikes currently are, mainly over Hampshire but also recently over South Wiltshire stretching down into South East Devon and Dorset. It's slowly clearing from these areas now though;

That mass over Central Southern England can't be far off a MCS structure. Massive clump of storms!