AWD

Plenty of rain instead though;http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=3&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&PANEL=0&LOOP=1&INFO=0

Not often you see FAX charts like these for our part of the world; IF they verify, there will certainly be some damage around.

Not the calmest of FAX charts;

Mine do. We've already has a tyrell message go out to all our depots to lock machinery away and tie goods/aggregates down etc. RHTT has also been scheduled to run Sunday evening.Maybe timing and STP alterations if things worsen even more tomorrow.

AJ has an interesting post in the Storm thread using the high res 12z NMM. Worth a read, showing some noticeable wind gusts for a lot of the region.

Likely to be the track currently forecast now;All models similiar in this track, just timing issues to straighten out now.

I bet come Tuesday, if all verifies as forecast, the Daily Express and co will be gloating big time about this. Sadly, many members of the public will be taken in by the paper too!

This might be a useful guide as to what can do what over the coming days;

^^ Cor, might buy the Mirror solely for that picture of Miranda!!

GFS is exactly half way between the UKMO & ECM with regards to the placement of the low by Monday Lunchtime. It's not really closer to either one from the other.

Ruddy hell! The 12z EC Det would be a little too much even or me. Would have to work outside in that, with my area right in the firing line there.

12z high res WRF-NMM model showing the worst of the winds along southernmost counties during Monday morning. At midnight; At 02:00 Monday morning; 04:00 Monday morning; 06:00 Monday morning; 08:00 Monday morning; 10:00 Monday morning; Bear in mind the above show MEAN (moyen) windspeeds and are not there to show max gusts, which are likely to be much higher in prone places.

Unless like me, you'll be up for work and enroute to Westbury at 04:00!

The 48 hour FAX for Sunday looks windy enough and the storm hasn't even arrived here yet!!!!

I wouldn't say it's calm as such on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Obviously nothing like what could happen Monday, but both Tuesday & Wednesday look decidedly breezy in a westerly wind too. With the possible winds on Monday weakening tree structures and weak man made structures, the strong breeze on Tuesday might not help problems either. Worth noting, Sunday afternoon and evening also look moderately windy for some areas too.

Bear in mind the strongest winds are being modelled on the southern/south western flank of the low. Even if the eye of the low does travel through Cheshire, which is distinctly possible, the strongest winds would be in South Wales and Southern England. The eye of the low would be where a lot of the heavy rain would be, rather than strong winds.To get the severe winds up in Cheshire and surrounding areas, you would need the eye of the low to travel roughly through Cumbria/Scottish borders, which on current modelling, is less likely. Models and forecasts don't have it this far north currently.It's a developing and volition situation though, so things can still change a lot.

You lot in Essex have your very own messiah to follow;

Err......... The Met Office Sir?

Latest forecast route from the Met Office for Monday's storm;

Latest forecast route with regards to the storm from the Met Office;

Every single one of us, from Penzance to Worcester, from Barnstaple to Reading, from Oxford to Portsmouth, are in an Amber warning zone from the Met Office now; We're all big boy's now. We're allowed to stay up until whatever time we please. But yes, the severest winds, if it verifies as currently forecast, will be during the early hours of Monday morning.

Marginally, but the above FAX is for midnight Monday. This is the FAX chart for midday Monday;The forecast track by the Met Office therefore is SW/NE, bringing the worst of the winds to our region between 01:00 & 07:00 if that verifies.

Who wants to go Windsurfing off the Jurrasic coastline on Monday then?

Moving away from the potential storm on Monday and looking further ahead into November. Current modelling suggests some sort of heights building to our South/South West later next week, moving east into Europe; Before continuing east towards Russia/Far East territory; This would suggest a milder air source later next week after a brief cooler period associated with Mondays low. Temperatures likely to return to slightly above average values by the end of next week as heights build over Europe. Further out into week 2 and as heights continue east, shown below by 2 ensemble suites for East Europe territory; This may allow lower heights to dig further south towards the UK/Europe, tilting the Jet Stream on a more NW/SE axis allowing a cooler pm/rPm flow over the UK at times, as shown by the EC Det FI; With the latest MJO forecast settling around phase 1 territory; This would also support the idea of troughing digging south over the UK around the week 2 timeframe; A brief window mid next week for southern England to see something less unsettled as heights move west-east close to southernmost counties, otherwise the pattern looks more unsettled than settled to me still for the foreseeable future. Mostly mild rather than cold too (with the possible exception of Tues/Weds next week briefly). Something cooler/more average possible in week 2 maybe.

NAE totals by tomorrow morning;GFS totals;Bit busy to go looking deeper using NW extra etc sorry.