AWD

Latest from Ian; "W COUNTRY UPDATE 2200GMT Latest in a few mins on @bbcpointswest with improved (of sorts) prognosis: lesser gusts generally; mostly 40-60mph. So gale to severe gale strength generally; locally storm force; impact very variable across region. Amber warning remains. Winds will first pick-up Lyme Bay / #Dorset / S #Somerset very quickly later tonight. Later these ease; by 5am stronger in N."

Horrific scenes across Southern Britian as the worse storm in over 10 years hits earlier than expected; (Caveat: Post intended as a joke and not to be taken seriously. Not representative of my thoughts.)

More train delays for those who may be commuting by First Great Western tomorrow morning; http://www.firstgreatwestern.co.uk/TravelInfo/Severe-Weather-Warning-27-28-October

I'm not too sure because the track of the low Netweather show on that image and the position of the low currently on satellite imagery already differ a little to me.As you say though, only time will tell.

Latest from Netweather;

Right, my amatuer thoughts of tonight's events. Got to say, it's a difficult one to call really, so I'm not overly confident in any forecast as things stand. The Met Office, the 12z Model Output, Media forecasts and Live progression are all differing slightly. Whilst these differences are minuscule in the overall picture of things, they could have large alterations in inter regional detail. That is the best I can produce right now. The area in red which includes catchments such as; - Brighton, Bognor Regis, Littlehampton, Portsmouth, Hastings, Eastbourne, IOW, Southampton, Bournemouth, Poole, Brockenhurst, Wareham, Lyme Regis and Fareham. This area could see gusts approaching 80mph during the storms peak. More typical gusts are likely to range from 65mph - 75mph. Some damage and distribution is likely in this area. The Orange area, which includes catchments such as; - Plymouth, Paignton, Newton Abbott, Exeter, Newton Poppleford, Weymouth, Sidmouth, Barnstaple, North Exmoor, Bude, Padstow, Minehead, Burnham, Weston Super Mare, Lundy Island, Portishead, West Bristol, Thornbury, Bridgwater, Taunton, Winchester, Basingstoke, Reading, Guildford and Horsham. This area could see gusts approaching 70mph. More typically, a short spell of gusts between 55mph - 65mph is likely quite widely. The green area, who's catchments include; - Bodmin, Liskeard, Warminster, Trowbridge, Frome, Yeovil, Salisbury, Swindon, Bath, Gloucester, Stroud, Cheltenham, Dursley, Tewkesbury, Worcester, Evesham, Newbury, Pewsey, Oxford, Didcot, Banbury, Moreton, Kingham, Chipping Norton, Devizes and Thatcham. This area should see gusts no higher than 60mph. More likely and widely, the more common gusts should be 45mph - 55mph though. Off course, tropographic impacts come into play when forecasting windspeeds, so places like the Mendips and Chilterns might see higher windspeeds than advertised above, but these are likely to be locally limited to prone locations. Unfortunetly, I don't have the geographical knowledge of all our thread area to include this into my forecast, hence why I've listed all urban and semi urban catchments my colour specific areas include, to make it clear my forecast has a urban bias to it rather than an elevation or coastal bias. All we can do now is watch and see how things evolve anyway. Model watching has finished, it's now down to Satelitte imagery and looking out our windows. We saw how modest 40mph - 60mph gusts blew over trees today around the region, so I have little doubt that further damage and tree deaths will occur overnight tonight. Stay safe peeps, it is going to be nervy for some of us tonight. Don't wind board in Lyme Bay, don't abseil down the Severn Bridge, don't go snorkelling off Lundy Island, don't go sailing to the Sicily Isles and don't attempt a channel swim! Stay safe and don't be stupid and most of us should be fine.

12z EC Det also trying to develop something secondary in association with the main trough to our west/northwest; Certainly something to watch over the coming days!

I'm in east Bristol and I can confirm we have light rain here.

Ian's forecast just now showed 2 stages; - Heavy rain soon until around midnightish. Some very bright colours on his graphics. - Strong winds from 03:00 - 05:00 approx, with upto 80mph gusts in prone locations. Typically 60mph + widely.

Basically, and this is a broad brush amatuer reply as I'm not 100% sure either, the global models are designed more toward the longwave, synoptic pattern for the UK and northern hemisphere as a whole.We then have high res short term modelling such as NAE, NMM, UKV, ARPEGE, EURO4, MOGREPS etc for more inter-regional detailed analysis, which should include local environmental and tropographic nuances the GM's might not pick up on.Hence why there might be higher gusts quoted from professionals etc than what's displayed on public website/Apps etc. This is because your local tropographic nuances and other environmental conditions have been taken into account.Perhaps a tweet/e mail to the Met Office might be an idea as I can't guarantee I'm right of course.

Ian's answered your query above mate plus maybe see if it updates after all 12z data is released later ?

A post from Ian Fergusson in the SW regional thread; http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78026-south-west-central-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-031013-15z/?p=2818363 Pretty much what I was trying to allude to earlier.

Latest from the Met Office;

GEM 12z also has another notable low next weekend;

I have to go to work at 04:00 in the morning. Got to go from Stoke Gifford - Westbury and then later in the morning from Westbury - Eastleigh.Could be an interesting shift.

Is that on the Meto website/App?If it is then it might be a case that it hasn't been updated with the 12z data yet?

The 0z EC Det, although not quite like that, also had a potent little secondary low crossing the country next weekend. A lot going on weather wise at the moment it seems!

80mph wind gusts WILL cause damage, especially in urban areas like Bristol, no matter how brief it may last.

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

Remember the GFS is a global model and isn't designed for short term, inter regional detail. I may be wrong but I doubt the GFS takes into account tropographic and local environmental nuances when calculating windspeeds to a specific, small scale region. Much better sticking to high res modelling now such as the NAE and NMM and also flirting for information from UKV, EURO4 and ARPEGE etc. Even better of course is to watch satellite imagery and see how things develop live.

Reports that both Southern Trains and South West Trains won't be operating any services until at least 08:00 tomorrow morning, possibly longer. Good luck to those of you who commute down that part of the world. http://www.southernrailway.com/southern/news/monday-28-october/ http://www.southwesttrains.co.uk/alerts.aspx

Currently S/SW of Ireland at 992mb and progressively deepening; With heavy rain not too far away from Cornwall now;

12z NAE shows the worst of the winds to be around 03:00 Monday morning for our area, with gusts in excess of 80mph in exposed locations; Should clear away by the time most of you wake up though, at 06:00;

This is what the current winds are doing around the West Country so far. This one is in Bristol; And this is on the A30 just outside Yeovil; And the winds are only going to worsen in these parts over the next 18 hours. Shows that even a modest wind gust can bring down trees in the south.

Southsea seafront restricted from 15:00 this afternoon; http://www.portsmouth.gov.uk/HomePage/news-and-communications_30986.html Trees also starting to go here in Bristol. This one from the Soundwell area of Bristol; Reports also of a power cut in Pangbourne, Berkshire where a tree has fallen onto power lines. No available link for this yet though. This from just outside Yeovil on the A30; Shows how even a modest gust can bring down trees in our area. No doubt there will be a lot more trees down over the next 24 hours.