AWD

Timing wise, the EC Det is more inline with the 0z EC ens that clustered for the Scandi high this morning. Much more plausible timing wise than the progressive 0z EC Det. 13th - 16th Dec IF we are to get something. Still a mega mighty IF though. EC ens will be interesting later.

Personally i think the signal for pressure to build to the E/NE of the UK is relatively notable this morning across all model suites. As others have said, the low res GFS Op is givinh reptative hints of this scenario lately along with the EC Op. The likelihood is however, that the 0z EC Op was too progressive with the pattern, therefore a slower progression is likely. Don't be suprised then if future EC Ops dont bring this forward for a while or indeed, variates with the pattern in FI. The EC ens, as posted above, show a split, with approx 50% going for blocking to our NE vice a W/SW source. However again, less progressive than the Op, with the key timeframe being 13th - 16th Dec. The GEFS/GEM/NAEFS also all hint at some sort of build of pressure to our E/NE in the longer term. (Image courtesy of Matt Hugo); So interesting potential in the longer term, something to keep us all talking if nothing else. Whilst the signal for a pressure build over Scandi is relatively notable, the degree of advection of cold, if any is worthless at such a range. The build of pressure is just the foundation of getting any easterly into the UK. Getting cold from it is another matter.

Latest from Ian; "W COUNTRY Max temps by Fri prob only 3-6C with significant wind chill for many. Snow poss Exmoor Fri-Sat, but all other areas likely clear."

CFSv2 mean 2m max temps for week ending 11th Jan; If only!

Just found out Bristol has won something!! Bristol was the sunniest place in the UK yesterday with 7.1 hours of sunshine. Woooooo!

The UKMO has gone from being excellent to bad rather quickly??

-1.8c here currently with a thick layer of ice to now scrape off the car. Feeling very cold out.

From Ian; "Squally cold front moving S giving wintry mix in places. Later afternoon, some wet snow poss, esp. Cotswolds, upland B&NES/Wilts"

Remember when we have high pressure in situ at this time of year the 850hpa temps become much less active when trying to determine temperature forecasts. Inversions/surface cold can often mitigate the 850hpa modelling and thus what may appear to be a less cold airmass or even milder airmass may appear less so at the surface. We do live at the surface and not 1500ft in the sky remember! That's not necessarily specific to any forecast modelling tonight, just a general observation!

Snow showers over the moors of Devon & Cornwall, otherwise it's a crisp cold day for many of us!

Trust the GFS to give us false hope;

One for smithyweather;

Just a few coastal flurries on the NAE 12z 48hr chart; Should have looked at Monday night too! Oops! Northern Ireland could be a sweet spot Monday night; Along with northern Scotland as you'd expect; Nothing too substantial though anywhere! England & Wales mostly dry?

Did you go into the sea yourself to find that out then? ;)

Latest MetO output and forecast reduces snow threat on Wednesday!

Might just be me mate seeing things. Been a long day. lol.120 FAX is a good'un for our region, 528DAM back SW and trough cut through ridge. Could get some back end snowfall off that!

That's Tuesdays FAX mate, here's the 96 hour FAX for Wednesday; Wrong side of marginal for a lot of our region although very close. One too watch as you say! EDIT: Your chart automatically updated so you have the right chart now.

The first forecast for snow for Bristol from the Met Office this season; It will be gone soon so make the most of it. However likely/unlikely it is to verify, it sure brought a smile to my face!

Ahh right, never seen that chart before, that's all. Thanks.

NAEFS looking very Scandi-high-esq this evening; Longer range NAEFS outlook suggests heights continuing NE from Scandi-Russia and lowering heights to our NW;

Interesting trough in the flow on Tuesday; Whole of the region well within sub 528DAM air!

Latest Met Office forecast for SW England for early next week; "Outbreaks of rain clearing southwards during Monday. Becoming colder thereafter with sunshine and wintry showers, and snow over the Moors. Wet on Wednesday with further snow possible on high ground." That should please Mullender & the Beast at the vey least!

Why does that chart return us to double figure temps at the end of November GTLTW?

Even urban Bristol is colder than that;http://www.martynhicks.co.uk/weather/data.php

Risen to 5.9c now. Very cloudy, misty and murky though!