AWD

Positives there including a very southerly tracking Jet Stream and thus lack of mild temps.Negatives, lack of colder upper air and pressure dominance at favourable northern latitudes. Like you say, messy and therefore probably unlikely to verify like that.

If you can make it up to Bodmin Moor then there is a chance. Watch this space!

Don't fret, if the Scandi high fails to deliver next week then there is always a 2nd chance in February; ;)

Personally I think Monday & Tuesday is too soon, I'm thinking more Weds - Sat, but hey ho, what do I know.Obviously, as Ian said earlier, there is a surprise risk for some of us on Monday.

It's too early to forecast snow with any certainty yet, even for the pro's/Met Office. Look at today's rainfall event for example, not as bad as originally forecast for many of us. Turning colder next week now looks likely, but further detail to that is subject to "Shannon entropy", lol. I've got a good feeling that some of us will get something next week. The most marginal can often be the most rewarding for this part of the world. I'll wait until the weekend before putting my thoughts across though, need to see if the theme is maintained for a couple more runs yet. I wouldn't mind a colder but drier feed anyway. Trying to work around Whiteball/Fairwater with half land and half water is getting kinda tiresome now. Don't forget Sunday in amongst the hype either, that's the main "event" as things stand for our region currently.

Old Fergie was mentioning the risk of M4 snowfall on Monday in the MOD thread so it does seem a little potential for something wintry is therefor a lucky few in our region.As ever though, only time will tell. Got to get through the weekend first. Recent tweet from Ian; "W COUNTRY After Sunday's rain, Monday ushers-in coldest spell of winter thus-far, with snow/ice possible across parts of the region by then"

Would depend how you define wintry.Looking at the GEFS for SW England, temps look like remaining a smidgen below average during the medium term. Some models have been hinting at deep low pressure systems drifting over the north of the UK. These therefore introducing a notable rPm flow after. It's in this cold north westerly flow that wintry showers of hail, sleet and wet snow could be seen over SW England, along with many other places in western England with the aid of evaporative cooling and nocturnal timing. All speculative at this stage of course, but a similar pattern brought wintry showers to lowland Cornwall of all places in December. I agree SW England is unlikely to see widespread settling snow, if any settling snow. But wintry weather isn't just about settling snow. An rPm airflow as described above can be just as wintry and as exciting for SW England at times.

GEFS 06z scream cold rPm/pm airflows to me in the medium range. Interesting for the north and not just to the highest ground if you don't mind it being temporary/repetitive; Bit more iffy the further south you are, although dependant on your expectations and desire, not without interest here either;

That's what I though too but the current GFS modelling shows minimal, if any snow during next week down here, so it must be based on something else?But what???

Those looking for winter, well..... You could always hope the MetCheck in house model is on to something;

Unless I'm otherwise mistaken, the high res NAE model has finally been put to sleep. RIP NAE.

Forgetting about snowfall for a minute, as it's looking rather iffy to say the least for our region still, the EURO4 model is now in full range for Friday's projected rainfall; Near 12 hours of varying intensity rainfall for a lot of us, only clearing east by Friday afternoon. Totals on their own aren't too alarming, but of course, with current ground conditions, the impact will be all the more noticeable. Accumulative rainfall by tomorrow evening; And then we have.............. Eeerk, Sunday!!!!!

The BBC1 forecast just shown thunder snow for Scotland tomorrow. Lucky buggers!

WBFL at circa 500m+ for the majority of England still at that time;Thickness values for your part of the world touch and go too at that time still;

Forecast for Saudi Arabia instead.

What isn't clear on the photo is the track is actually approx a foot above the water level currently as it is on a raised shelf. So as things stand, the water level shouldn't affect the train running.However, it all depends on what Mother Nature throws at us in the coming days ahead.

Current situation on the Somerset Levels, between Bridgwater & Taunton; I don't think I've ever seen it as bad as that. There is almost a tide there. With more rainfall forecast over the next 10 days or so too, it's looking rather ambiguous to say the least.

I prefer to use high-res modelling where possible rather than GFS Operational charts and the high res stuff only goes out to 48hrs currently, hence why I didn't go no further than 06:00.You're right in that the GFS Op is a little more bullish in bringing some wintriness more widely across the UK, but it's not something I would put much confidence in re snowfall personally. Let's hope future high res output upgrade the potential though.

Looks primarily for areas around 500m+ Perhaps slightly lower down in Northern Ireland where some modest 850hpa temps and thickness values are felt from the northern Atlantic;

I don't think a 06z GFS FI snowfall chart is going to quite cut it in here mate.

To be fair, that tweet was before the 12z output was out (ie 12z GFS) therefore is a bit misleading now.

Latest UKMO RAW falling into line with 0z FAX and EC output now with limited scope re colder air fluctuating east coast;

Is it Spring today? Feels like it.

Being picky and not that it matters at 200+ hrs out but the pattern seems to be nudging east too me, with the UK already on the western extent of the cold evolution with days and days to go yet. Like I said, not that it matters too much at this stage, but a push or two westwards of the longwave pattern currently modelled in FI would allow us some much needed "breathing space" to play with.

The GFS Op & EC Op really aren't a million miles away from each other at day 10; Both have the Canadian vortex separating from the Scandi vortex which is the main plus. Detail with ref to our little island be it cold/mild irrelevant at this stage. Coincidence? We will soon find out.