AWD

Amber warning from the Met Office for much of our region out for wind on Weds/Thurs now. Looking very stormy midweek.

Some very worrying FAX charts from the Met Office this morning with spells of gales/severe gales and heavy rain/showers on and off throughout the week. The 72 hour FAX below is especially stormy for some of us with a notable deep depression; At such a short range too, it's leaving it very late for last minute improvements there. Into the rest of the week and it's more of the same ; Further rainbands and troughs mixed within a very volatile atmosphere with pretty much everything thrown at us from rain, thunder, sleet, snow and gales again. With the volatile state of the environment in parts of the West Country and SW coastline currently, 50mph gusts and 20mm of rain (which on a normal day would be noting out of the ordinary) would have a higher than usual impact on the surface and cause major disruption and threat to people and structures. Let's hope the continued improvements being shown in week 2 continue to gain momentum and the clean up can slowly begin.

What has verified this winter has been very unusual, unusual this winter is. Therefore I wouldn't worry about how unusual something looks on the NWP, as with the way this winter is panning out, that means nothing right now.Agree with you re settling down beyond week 2. Long way to go but definitive signs of something much less wet on the distant horizon now.

You've had your fair share of snow this winter now!

This is the current situation at Fordgate, on the Somerset levels; http://www.britishrailways.tv/train-videos/2014-02/main-line-swamped-during-high-tide-at-bridgwater-8th-february-2014/ Bear in mind this is inland and no where near the sea, there is so much floodwater now there is a mini tide!!

And us down south start flying around!

Also, I had a job down in Eastleigh today meaning a journey from Westbury, across the Salisbury plain. Some of the flooding I saw was shocking. Nothing on the scale of what the Somerset levels are seeing, but still noteworthy and largely unknown away from the area. Around Wishford, on the Salisbury plain, houses and gardens were underwater. Football goals submerged and roads flooded. Romsey has a petrol a station underwater, and I witnessed people in waterproofs removing belongings from flooded properties into white vans. Kids were on makeshift rafts playing in floodwater like you do in the sea. The river Avon around Freshford is seriously overflowing. A torrent of water flooding fields and farmland. Sorry, no pics due to the loco we had being unsuitable but take my word for it, some eye opening scenes.

I swear around a hour ago there was some lightning in Bristol during a heavy shower. Can't be certain though. Anyone else in Bristol see anything?

Here you go Mullender; Drool away!

Have you been reading the express?! lol.In all seriousness, it's nowhere near the scale that 1987 was, but it will be a noticeably deep depression, made all the more worse with the current state of affairs around the SW.Just to clarify to, the low tonight is the same low that's going to be with us throughout the weekend.

And similiar from the UKMO at T96;

Yep, just one of a cluster of showers along the Jurrasic coastline.Main rainband is still out west around about Ireland area.

And here's what's coming later today and tomorrow; Not looking forward to my trips across the Salisbury plain to Eastleigh tomorrow.

The railway network in the SW is basically crippled. This is the reason why I've been working 12+ hour days, 6 days a week lately; http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26084245

Another very windy day to come on Saturday;

Goodbye Ireland;

Heavy, possibly thundery showers later rather than prolonged frontal rainfall.Some torrential downpours likely.

Yes. The EURO4 model last night highlighted such an escape.Let's hope it happens. Not ideal by a long way, but the less rain the better.

Looking at the radar, it's possible that the heaviest rain skirts NE along the channel coast and into SE England. This would mean lighter rainfall for the West Country etc. Let's see how it pans out anyway.

Sigh!!

Worth noting that the GEM has now picked up the potential for something similiar to last nights 12z EC Op (albeit with slight tracking differential which is negligible at this stage); UKMO looks like it could be going there too; But flattens it out to some degree by 144hrs; Definetly in the "one to watch" category though. Will be interesting to see if the 0z EC maintains it. All this after another storm at the weekend too.

Looking slightly further ahead, the weekend is again looking very disruptive on all levels; That will finish off anything that's half damaged through today's stormy weather.

That's the point. Some models, as Mapantz has posted above paint another wet story Thurs night, and some models as I've posted above, paint a less wet picture with lighter rainfall.It's therefore possible that Somerset and environs could escape with little rainfall tomorrow night if certain forecast models verify.Nothing dry though, which is what's really needed.

Latest EURO4 output has some better news for Somerset and environs tomorrow. 48hr accumulative rainfall chart (ie up until midday Friday, so well before the weekends shinnanigands), forecasting a notable "drier" slot over the Somerset, North Dorset, Mendips area, with minimal accumulative rainfall; Not such good news for Devon & Cornwall though with another dose of more noticeable rainfall likely.

I wonder if the picturesque Devonshire town of Dawlish will still be on the map next week;