AWD

Latest forecast wave heights around the SW are worrying to say the least; Off the scale nearly! ;0

And to top it all off, us Bristolians have got to be extra vigilant as we have a crocodile roaming around our city! ;)

Hate to inform you mate but that stretch of track will be OOU for a long period of time now.A section of the sea wall has been destroyed with the resulting ballast and fishplates being washed away leaving the track balancing in the air;This means effectively starting from scratch and building a whole new wall and frame along with replacing the track itself. With the current inclement weather here to stay for the foreseeable future, it may be a number of days before work can even start.I would be prepared to alter your commute for the best part of the month now.

Railway line between Exeter & Newton Abbott has been destroyed around the Dawlish area by a ferocious sea. Looking likely that South Devon & Cornwall will be disconnected from the rest of the rail network for the week ahead.

Tomorrow's (daytime) forecast wind gusts from the GFS;

Heavy and persistent rain here. Raindrops are of the large variety. Going to swim to school to get the kid now.

Here you go Mulls;

5.5c please

Want snow? Head to parts of errr............ SPAIN

The GFS Operationals continue with the FI split teases, the latest from the 12z; EC, within it's 10 day timeframe forecasting a notable wave 2 increase; Whether - A). This verifies B ). Has any positive impacts upon the polar patterns remains to be seen.

Cold and wet here. Frequent heavy showers blowing through, some containing hail. Off to build a boat now!

Nothing of any note here yet. A decent cluster has developed over the Bristol channel heading for the Mendips though.

Current reported snowfall; Good little source - http://uksnowmap.com - if you want to find out the latest on where the snow is falling.

I got to agree with you here. The latest EURO4 output overnight tonight highlights the "dry gap" you reference above;With the wintry showers for the Mendips southwards, swinging north east towards the Chilterns though.Dartmoor towards Salisbury plain continuing to be the sweet spot.However, we all know how difficult it is to forecast shower distribution on a microscale basis though, so nowhere can be eliminated for sure.Those who do see something, make sure you get some photos. The way this winter is playing out, it may be your lot! lol.

Reports of heavy snow in Gloucestershire (Forest of Dean) area. Anyone confirm this? With pictures too?

A wintry shower mix of soft hail/sleet/rain here now. Not too heavy though.

Plenty of showers over Devon & Cornwall now with more further to our west.

As posted earlier, most likely districts (but not exclusively) for snow showers narrowing down to the Mendips, Dorset hills, Salisbury plain and up towards the Chilterns. Some elsewhere but much less likely to settle at lower levels for long. WBFL values rising throughout Monday morning so where snowfall does settle, it looks like a struggle to make it past midday tomorrow. On the positive side though, the first snowflakes of the winter for some of us are upon us now. A much more wintry pattern than derby weeks. Also, with such an unstable atmosphere and volatile airmasses, I wouldn't rule out thunder sleet and thunder snow for some of us either. Watch that radar, things are going to become rather lively through the next 12hrs or so with further similiar potential throughout the coming working week.

Latest EURO4 output not as bullish on snow prospects for the region; Whilst the wintry theme is still evident, PPN looks more sporadic and lighter along with less bullish WBFL values. Nowcast situation now anyway.

The spread on the EC ens post T144 highlight the uncertainty well with ref to Atlantic v block; This also highlighted in graphical format for both a northeastern location, Newcastle; And a southwestern location, Bristol; Plenty of interest for both locations there still, obviously greater the further north east you go.

Latest EURO4 output continues highlight a cold westerly flow digging in behind the current rainband later today. Showers turning wintry across Exmoor, Dartmoor and across into the Dorset hills and Salisbury plain; As for next week, we seem to be struggling still for any kind of model consensus. Having said that, we do seem to be slipping the wrong side of marginal in our region, so as things stand I would currently lean towards further outbreaks of rainfall rather than snowfall for most of us, however, the GEFS below highlight how close it is; It certainly isn't outside the realms of possibility to see something more wintry.

Yup, could be. Although with the lack of nocturnal aiding and an increase in WBFL values, I would expect the wintriness in the showers to fade away after dawn Monday morning;Oh, and as for next week. Wouldn't get overly concerned of any particular outcome YET. Too much model volatility to have any confidence in next weeks shinnanigands. EC and to a lesser degree the GFS are within 500miles of producing a snowfest for the W/Country for example. 500 miles on NWP output 4/5/6/7 days away is nothing.Not saying we will become a whiteout, FWIW there is a strong worry of further flooding issues in the medium range equally, just saying that further model concensus is required before settling on any particular outcome.

EURO4 model highlights the chance of a flow of wintry showers well tomorrow night in the areas you mentioned;However, I would be extremely dubious about any lying snow, certainly away from the highest hills and probably there too really.Ground temps are currently above average courtesy of the lack of frost in recent weeks along with the fact most fields are like lakes rather than fields around here. With such a short "window" of opportunity and any wintriness likely to be wet and temporary, the chances of lying snowfall are minimal as things stand.Still, myself included, many of us would enjoy just the sight of something wintry falling from the sky with the way this winter is conducting itself, I'm sure.

Latest EURO4 model indeed highlighting some wintriness over the hills and moors;Exmoor, Dartmoor and the Mendips perhaps seeing a smuttering of the white stuff.Turning our attention to tomorrow, it's looking like a washout to say the least;With unwanted, notable accumulative PPN for a lot of us;As for snowfall next week, I wouldn't get too hung up on that sort of detail yet. With the differences between the NWP output stark over the broader pattern (EC v UKMO for example), refined detail like snowfall over our region is an utter futile task.The potential is there, but equally it's not.

Yeah, bloody wet!