AWD

Another beefy hail shower passed over again. Nice dusting of hail for a few minutes.

Indeed.The NW NMM model is also much more detailed. When using charts like the above, I forget the printed figures as they are too vague for regional forecasts, and instead concentrate on the colour-scale bias.

The winds might be negotiable but the rainfall projections over the next 48 hours look startling to say the least. High res EURO4 model showing some places exceeding 100mm over the next 48 hours; I'll do a full forecast after the 12z output tonight, but I would be prepared for some flooding around the region on the run up to Christmas.

Nice hefty hail shower just passed through here. That's the closest I'm going to get to a white Christmas this year anyway. Very turbulent atmosphere though.

Could be an interesting evening for many of us. Snow, sleet, hail, rain, thunder & lightning all possible for a lucky few of us around the region. It does seen to be splitting/weakening as it continues into the West Country though.

EURO4 accumulative chart agrees; Zilch aside from a speck on Dartmoor.

Latest EURO4 output tones down snow signal for tomorrow now, limiting it chiefly to Mendips & Wiltshire plateau area; NAE somewhat differs entirely though, giving Wales the main bulk of wintriness; I'm not too sure how much we can forecast an event like this though when taking into account how borderline and detailed it is. Marginal local nuances & environmental conditions along with PPN intensity and evaporative cooling could ultimately swing it one way or another.

Half way out now. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=18&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

That's the 0z mate!

Yup, as anticipated, a squall like feature is starting to develop and move E within the mass of PPN.

Latest from Ian; "W COUNTRY Mostly rain/hail showers Thurs PM. Chance of snow very knife-edge for complex reasons but most likely Glos uplands later afternoon. Most of region (if not all) should be ok tomoro & miss snow. Glos northwards into Midlands/Pennines, plus S & E Wales, higher risk. So, we currently run with notion of snow possible Exmoor, Mendips & more especially FoD/Cotswolds later Thurs. Less likely lower.."

Also worth noting the intensity of the rainfall forecast later this afternoon, some right old heavy rain possible, with no doubt, an embedded squall somewhere amongst the mix; And 24 hours later we have this; Bring it on, some active weather at last, even if not all IMBY!

We can't see the freezing level associated with the EURO4 and NAE models but if we look at the GFS, the WBFL never falls below circa 400m, so anything to lower ground looks rather unlikely at this stage, perhaps rather reliant on evaporative cooling etc;

The NAE is still available and running alongside the EURO4 model as of now. Until it gets withdrawn then we have 2 high res models to assess short term forecasting conundrums with. Although I agree, the NAE isn't the best, it will be interesting to see whether the EURO4 model is better.

EURO4 model shows small accumulative snowfall projections for Exmoor, Dartmoor & The Mendips by Fri AM;

I've heard there is a slither of an opportunity for some white stuff tomorrow night for a few of us. Best start getting more involved then now the stalemate Euro high is finally slipping away. EURO4 model gives the moors of SW England a period of rather heavy snowfall tomorrow night; Compared to the NAE, with any snowfall concentrated further north towards the Cotswolds; Now we have access to the EURO4 model, it will be interesting to see how it performs against the NAE for short term forecasting.

Worth noting the EURO4 model differs from the raw NAE, with snowfall forecast further SW, over the moors of Devon & Cornwall especially; Interesting times ahead though, a respectful possibility of some white stuff for some lucky southerners!

A new model to play with soon; "Hot news from http://Weatheronline.co.uk The new UK Met Office 4km model is going to be available from weatheronline today or tomorrow :)"

Agreed:

That be on Thursday, way in FI.

I presume you mean the ECM, and it doesn't look that bad at all on Wednesday??

Another, less popularised winter phenomenon I love is a really foggy & dark morning, which is exactly what I have now. Thick dense fog blurring any artificial light it encounters and giving that eerie still vibe you get.

From Ian; "W COUNTRY Once into the weekend, high pressure will dominate thereafter for at least 14 days ahead based on latest assessment. Dry, settled."

Good luck getting into Cabot Circus at the weekend, I don't envy you. Last weekend was choca down there. Queues everywhere. Bath Christmas market, although very busy still, is well worth a visit though. Hopefully something brighter than this cloudy, drizzly scenario will entail us by then.

12z NAEFS showing strong hints of a block to our E/NE but perhaps not far enough north for the golden gem. South Easterly rather than easterly? Nevertheless, the trend continues though.