AWD

Only 5.3c here. Not often I'm colder than you Mullender!

This is a good representation for Tuesday at this stage I think; Wednesday is looking more tricky to call currently!

Let's just wait and see mate. 850hpa temps can't be taken solely when forecasting snowfall. It doesn't matter if the 850hpa temp is -8c if other factors are less favourable for snowfall. Other factors have to fit in too. You are definetly at risk of snowfall but equally you could get a wintry mix, a la your Meto forecast.Best lamp post watch come Tuesday. That's the most exciting and reliable way of observing snowfall anyway. Good Luck!

You know that GFS chart is for midday Tuesday yeah?It's for the reasons I've just described above!You'll probably find you could get something more wintry than the Meto forecast you posted above suggests!However, maybe not as wintry as what your expecting/hoping for?

Remember, 850hpa temps aren't a sole decider on forecasting snowfall.Don't take these charts too literally as they are from the 06z GFS Op, but it does give a broad idea of a "milder upper sector" mixing out the colder air aloft through to the surface. This could easily be caused by the above average SST anomalies around the UK currently.A look at the 850hpa temps on Tuesday show -8c values as you say;However, a look at the freezing level for the same time shows the threat of the colder air aloft mixing out at surface level, with it forecast by the GFS Op to be around 100m;Therefore, suggestive of an elevated requirement for snowfall. A wintry mix once you get towards sea level. The Dewpoints only just on the right side of marginal too;A look at Tuesday evening suggest a "pacier" mix out of the colder 850hpa temps. -5/6c still often considered good for snowfall;But look how the WBFL increases;This definetly suggestive of a less cold sector mixing out the colder air aloft. Some notable elevation required for snowfall in NI on Tuesday night. Dewpoints also representive of this;Not saying the Meto are 100% right, as NI is definetly at risk of frequent and heavy sleet/snow showers Monday night into Tuesday morning. The risk does lessen as Tuesday progresses though as surface temps begin to impact the cold air, mixing it out at the surface and therefore giving the need for elevation as Tuesday progresses!

Which is a very sensible, realistic and favourable comment at this stage!

These are the forecast 850hpa temps for Cardiff (ie a western settlement): Nothing, for mid-late November, that I would call mild there. Snowfall for Central and Southern England was always unlikely (away from the most elevated of areas) so the lack of white stuff is to be expected. Realistically it's a little too early in the season for meaningful snowfall for England & Wales. There will be plenty of opportunities for frosty, foggy weather though with crisp, cold days. I don't see double figure temperatures for most of us for a long time now. Therefore nothing mild, cold then relaxing to chilly with plenty of wintry weather outside of snowfall.

Latest FAX chart backs up the possibility;This is likely to change still, but as a guide, the snowline looks like getting down to just 100masl at times;So all fine for you. In the heavier showers it could get pushed down further (evaporative cooling etc) so a wintry, slushy mix possible anywhere really.

NE rather than NW?

I think it's the same tweet from yesterday mate, as I can't see any recent activity from Chris Fawkes.Courtesy of Matt Hugo, at least the EC32 day scenario isn't without support from other models;Always nice to see some collective support!

From Ian; "Many areas in S seeing little (or no) snow nxt week, albeit nowhere immune. However, any at lower levels will readily melt = overnight ice."

You need to get yourself one of these then BB;

And again on the 18z GFS Op, some midweek wintriness is possible; That's all 4 GFS Op runs today that have shown some sort of disturbance over out region providing something of interest mid next week. Interesting to observe if nothing else!

An interesting 12z NAEFS run, keeping positive anomalies to our NW right out to 300+ hours; Of course, what airmass we get is unclear at such a range, but the London suite suggest nothing warmer than chilly at best for the foreseeable; To add, pretty good agreement here;

Head up to the Brecons/Valleys mate. Could be some picturesque scenes up there next week!

Anyone been into the MOD thread this evening? Ruddy hell, silly season has well and truly started. It's like reading pages upon pages of the Daily Star in there!

The NAVGEM at 144 hours looks pretty decent; Respectable push north there of the high!

Hints of something wintry amongst a disturbance again visible on the 12z GFS Op across the South West; It's been hinted at on a few GFS Op runs now!

12z GFS Op still interested in giving something wintry to our region next week; Elevation could be the key next week I think!

Didn't think it would take you long!

Isn't there a media thread for all these media reports?

Taken from the below source; "The unsettled theme is likely to continue, bringing the threat of snow as it turns colder. "The snow looks mainly confined to the hills, with a covering possible as far south as Dartmoor and Exmoor, but potentially to lower levels in the north." http://news.sky.com/story/1168636/snow-threat-with-cold-snap-around-the-corner

I know mate, I was only messing! Bodmin Moor is quite a hotspot during a colder spell. Often catch a shower or two there with a covering quickly established.

Does Cornwall know what snow is? lol.

Thought I would highlight this snippet from the latest Met Office forecast for week 2; "There is a risk these showers could merge into longer spells of rain, sleet or snow, especially in the west, and later the south. Cold, with more widespread overnight frosts likely, although becoming less cold later." Suggestive of a wintry mix, a la GFS Op, later next week, perhaps providing our members who live half way up in the sky a point of interest!