AWD

Not just to high ground in the north. Even to lower levels, locally, some accumulative snowfall possible.Also highlighting the possibility of a wintry mix (rain/sleet/snow) further south and west too. Plenty of use of the S word there.For the timescale still involved, that to me, is a good sensible forecast for the cold admirer!

Don't worry, there is always Katie Price!!

These are the GEFS for Somerset; Often the wrong side of marginal in terms of 850hpa temps. Also, the bottom of the ensembles in blue, show the percentage chance of snowfall when all members are considered.

A more sensible GFS 06z spread chart for snow depth mid next week; Take with a pinch of salt though, ground temps still rather warm for settling snow!

But then we have;"@_chrisfawkes: not the same as 2010 so I think quite a short lived cold snap next week with Atlantic re exerting it's influence late Nov"from Chris Fawkes, so perhaps a large spread of uncertainty in the longer term for now?

It may well be updated in a couple of hours anyway!

Just for fun, this chart won't verify but according to the 06z GFS Op, the West Country is the place to be next week;

From Ian; "W COUNTRY Colder weather digs-in esp. after Tues; @metoffice suggest "nowhere immune" to some ice/sleet/snow, but f'cast detail is v tricky. Thereafter, a signal for colder conditions, in broad sense, is considered most likely outcome into next 10-15 days. Worth adding that such colder spells are not untypical for mid-late November, despite some ridiculous media hyperbole."

Without wanting to sound like a Scrooge, the downside to the GFS simplistic PPN charts/computerised forecasts etc is that it simply translates the -5c line into the snowline when we all know things are much more complicated than that when forecasting snowfall. The current above average SST's we have all around us will soon mix out the colder 850hpa air as it comes to the surface thus increasing the Wet Bulb values and therefore turning PPN to rain/hail/sleet etc rather then snow. Obviously the more elevated you are the less time this process has to happen and therefore the increasing likelihood that you could see a little of the white stuff. Also Dewpoints, from a northerly direction, tend ti take longer to receed compared to a more drier, continental flow. This and warm ground temperatures due to the limited coldness to date will make any snowfall we might get very hard to stick, even at elevated areas. The one positive though is that under evaporative cooling and higher intensity showers, we could have a right old mix of anything, including a lowering of the WB values. It is going to be a very unstable and fascinating flow!

I was just going to say that the NH charts are much easier to read than those little zoomed in European ones as we can dissect the Atlantic pattern then, which ultimately in scenarios like this, is crucial.The EC Det, no questions about it, sends much more energy W/NW off the Eastern Seaboard preventing the high from getting as far north as previous runs have shown;This then causes the high to topple over the UK rather than to the north of the UK if it had ridged further north. It's a perfectly plausible scenario, one that fits in with some previous forecasts of a colder spell, not lasting too long before returning to something more average. No expectant GH!!!However, before hysteria breaks out in here one should consider the following.- Why should the 0z be any more correct than the 12z?- Where does the Det sit amongst it's ensemble suite?- What do other NWP models suggest? Does it resemble other NWP output?- How high were your expectations anyway?- What does teleconnective data suggest? How likely is the EC Det outcome?Anyway, off to work now. The EC Det still suggests a cold spell next week as per. It just doesn't have the longer term aspirations that many here were hoping for!

It isn't going to snow, at least not for the foreseeable. Should become rather cold and dry firstly next week which should help lower ground temperatures. Every chance of a frost or two too, depending on cloudcover and winds.Snow for our region is still way out in FI and not worth worrying about yet. However, when/if it does come, then I have every faith you'll be the first to see it with your elevation and luck! :)

That high can't sink with the low heights to our south. You'll probably end up with a repeat scenario of the PV dropping to our east and the high ridging west/north west again. All speculative at this stage though of course.Doesn't matter about 850hpa temps 8/9/10 days away as these will vary a lot at that timeframe.

Judging by today's 0z & 12z EC output, your "gritter load of salt" will be in high demand.

Look what's coming down from the NE though Gav. That high can't sink because of the low heights digging right down into the Med. For the time of year and the fact it's very much tropospheric led, it really doesn't get much better than today's EC 0z & 12z output.

At this stage it's looking rather dry inland with a more "wishbone" scenario favoured.However, as you and I both know, looking for PPN activity at such a range as this is fruitless.

-9c 850hpa air in mid November; For our part of the world that really wouldn't be bad going so early in the season!

A couple of rather teasing 240hr charts; Certainly enough to keep me interested for the foreseeable!

Very little chance at this moment in time but watch this space!

As has been forecast many times from the more knowledgable on this thread, we are looking at a MLB scenario rather than a HLB one. The EC Det tonight is a perfectly reasonable solution for the next 10 days or so. (Not saying it will happen like that though). What it does provide all of us is a period of colder than average weather with (local detail pending) frosts and fog. It also provides northern areas (especially but not exclusively, elevated areas) with an opportunity of the first snows of the season. Bearing in mind it's only November and bearing in mind the current stratospheric conditons, it's a much better scenario than what we could have from a cold perspective. As expected, the EC Det "topples" the high in its later output, but that's not necessarily the end of the story. Heights remain low across Europe, the Atlantic pattern remains amplified and the PV remains disturbed. This will provide further FI eye candy to keep this thread ticking over for the foreseeable with the possibility of further ridging to our west/north west. The pattern is a million miles away from Bartlett territory. A negative NAO pattern becoming established across the NH, perhaps west based at times admittedly. Should easily be a good continuation to the Scottish Skiing Industry. Personally, compared to a week or so ago, I'm rather looking forward to the next 4 weeks or so of weather. It ain't going to be warm folks!

Latest NMM 12z highlighting many parts of our region to dip to freezing or slightly below tonight;

Good job winter is still in FI then!

A better chart highlighting the frost risk tonight; Typically rural areas, Mendips northwards!

It's not all about snow mate, especially this early in the season. I know, IMBY, I won't be seeing any of the white stuff for the foreseeable.However, it does look increasingly likely that I COULD get a series of air frosts and possibly some very foggy mornings turning into crisp, cold sunny days.Compared to the recent overcast, drizzly conditions with double digit minima I've had to endure, I will take that with open arms.Plus, the longer the pattern stays amplified with an unsettled PV, it increases the hope of something wintry as we progress through winter proper.

Indeed. Don't care how the chart has come to that conclusion, it's the signal away from anything mild/above average that I take from it.Cold, crisp frosty nights in late November would be very welcome from the recent double digit minima's & overcast drizzly days I've had. As I said in my original post, goodbye SWesterly winds and hello something more seasonal. Although I do think a west based -NAO pattern is still a realistic option in the long run but I'll leave that for now as I done a post about that yesterday and nothing much as changed reliably for the time being.

Away from urban catchments, it looks like inland areas of the South could catch a frost tonight; Could set us up for a nice crisp start to tomorrow morning.