AWD

Mean 850hpa temps now hit -5c next week. Control run must be good viewing.

Could there be light at the end of the tunnel? A change in the hemispheric longwave pattern? Could we soon be swapping the Wellies for the scarves?

It's called discussion.Keeps the thread ticking over.

My original post wasn't querying or suggesting we would get the freeze parts of the U.S.A. are getting. Obviously the Atlantic Ocean amongst other factors would tamper the airmass if it were to advect west. My original post was more questioning the weather in the US repeating itself in the UK be it a week, month or year down the line and in what way the weather in the US dictates our weather patterns. The UK and US are interlinked with the Jet Stream so there is obviously the consequences at each end there, but the bone of it all is why is there a misconception (if indeed it is a misconception) that a lot of non weather enthusiasts are under the impression that we will get what America gets? Be it rain/wind/snow/heat etc. Why has this rumour arisen and is there any truth to it? Be it hot/cold/wet/dry etc.

I've heard numerous sayings, especially but not exclusively, from non weather enthusiasts, that we get the same weather that America gets further down the line. Just watching the BBC news now and a report on the current freezing conditons in the U.S. came on. This caused lots if comments and reaction from my work colleagues, suggestive that we will experience such a weather type further down the line now because, and I quote, "America sends us their weather". Like I said above though, it isn't exclusive to non weather enthusiasts though. I've heard such sayings on Netweather, other weather related forums and on professional weather forecasters social media feeds. Is there any truth in this? Does the weather in America dictate the European weather patterns? Will the current freezing conditions in the USA make it to Europe in one way or another further down the line?

After this clump of heavy downpours over Glous, Bristol & Somerset as cleared through eastwards it looks a little drier on the radar. A decline in shower activity as the day progresses is likely today.

European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts.http://www.ecmwf.int

12z EURO4 output suggestive of "lines" of showers and possible storms forming overnight and into early tomorrow morning across the region; Meaning some places could see frequent and/or prolonged downpours streaming SW/NE whilst places a few miles either side of these "lines" may see little or nothing at all. Something like this: Worth noting, the signal remains for a noticeable line of storms/downpours during early tomorrow morning roughly running down from London - Hampshire - SE Dorset.

Bristol had an impressive fall of snow in Feb 2009. 15cm - 20cm widely then. Biggest fall since the turn of the century that was for Bristol.

Looking at the Meto invent radar, there could be some mega squall features & storms stretching down NE/SW in line throughout the rest of the day and through the night into tomorrow morning. Looks very interesting due example in the early morning tomorrow for a liken roughly London heading SW towards Dorset. Will post more later as on the train at the moment. Here's a snapshot at 06:00 tomorrow morning for example;

Great!The one weekend I'm away (up in Liverpool) and there is a thunderstruck over my house.Always the way!

I'm still using just as much gas/heating to dry my clothes/work uniform etc because it hasn't stopped p**sing down for the last 2 weeks. All couped up indoors, heating on even though it's relatively mild and the local environment around my area severely damaged by recent winds & rainfall causing mayhem on the regions railways (my working environment) and destroying some peoples homes etc. I'm not a major coldie, just partial to a wintry snap or two, but even I wouldn't mind scraping the car window for 5mins or paying an extra £20 quid to the gas man for a few months just so the ruddy rainfall could stop flooding land/homes/infrastructure down here in the South West. A small price to pay for what some people down here are experiencing and I'm sure many of my fellow south westerners would agree with me here too.

Not the best of mornings so far. Strong gusts of winds with heavy bursts of rain. Very strong gusts I might add.

That squall feature I was talking about earlier is showing up on the radar now. Not far off hitting Cornwall.

Sorry, no can do Mulls;

A little bit of interest approaching for Saturday;

It's raining here again!

Is it me or am I the only one modestly happy with tonight's charts from a cold perspective? I'm not expecting any cold weather on our shores within the next 10/14 days or so, so the fact some operational and even ensemble products aren't showing such a scenario doesn't really bother me for now. It's the fact we have action up above in both the stratosphere and possibly into the troposphere that interests me more at this stage. We can see this starting to affect the PV towards mid month, hence the array of outcomes we currently see within the NWP. Whether or not a particular model brings cold to our shores or not is irrelevant at this stage. It's the fact they all show a closer route to cold compared to our current pattern that pleases me a little. No facts or figures for this, but Arctic highs aren't the easiest thing to model for the NWP so trying to pin down detail on a scenario that has such fine margins of error at a timeframe such as this is pointless IMO. It's looking likely that it's going to be a 2nd half or possibly final 3rd jobbie this winter but hey ho, rather that than nothing at all. I'm seeing an increasingly likelihood (albeit slow process) of a southerly tracking Jet and a weaker but not shredded PV in the longer term, and for now, along with the current long range Met Office forecast, will do me just fine.

Further to my post above, this is what caught my eye; Something similiar also similiar on the NMM too. Severe flood warnings for the Cornish coast; http://ow.ly/scUXB Take action level, eeek!

Looking at a few high res models quickly, there could be a localised band of thunderstorms during the early hours for Southernmost counties. After this evenings rainband has passed through, look out for any squall like features, if your awake of course.

Clear downward trend in the EC ens towards mid month; GFS not really supported within EC ens;

Be interesting to see if there are any changes on the 12z data later though.

So we got the London GEFS, the De Bilt EC ens, but not the London EC ens as asked for? Not updated on my usual source.

Just looked at the 5 day Meto forecast for our area too.There is a whole load more of the wet stuff at various times through the next 5 days too.

It's raining.