AWD

Nice looking 06z Mean chart from twitter; Looks like we can say goodbye to SWesterly winds for a while at least anyway.

12z NAEFS suite showing an increasingly prominent Mid Atlantic ridge scenario in the 8-10 day timeframe, seemingly backing up tonight's Operational output; Still hints that the pattern could become west based in the longer timeframe, although as we would expect at that range, much more deviation and thus low confidence by then!

"I never knew Jeremy Clarkson was that bald"?

And so it begins;

A nice little tweet from John Hammond via the BBC; "Long way off but there are some hints of notably wintry weather developing through next week. John H"

First person to spot the S word..............

Just made a post in the MOD thread! lol. Wouldn't get to hung up on snow at the moment yet mate, it would have to fall into place inch perfectly for any wintriness down our part of the world. Not saying it's not possible though, especially over elevated areas like yourself.I think frost and fog are a more favourable outcome for us. Could be some nice cold nights with cool days.Don't see anything lengthy for us either though. Being so early in the season, SST's and surface inversions should soon mix out what cold 850hpa pM air we do see.Nonetheless, an early brief taste of Wintery feeling weather does look likely in week 2 and with an emerging amplified Atlantic pattern (even if it does end up WB/NAO), it gives us interest and hope as we enter winter proper at least.

Looking forward to the potential upcoming settled spell. Hopeful of getting a few frosts recorded, which have been lacking IMBY so far this season.

I think in the longer term we could be looking at a west based -NAO pattern emerging, albeit slowly. We are obviously seeing support gain for a mid Atlantic ridge to become established during week 2, allowing some more seasonal pM air to influence the UK, with (if things go well) some brief shots of arctic air too. This all thanks to the emerging likelihood of a Mid Atlantic ridge; However, the ridge looks like it could continue it's journey west towards the Eastern Seaboard, albeit slowly, eventually putting the UK the wrong side of the amplified PFJ, and setting up a west based -NAO; The EC ens also show a moderation in temperatures after the initialisation of the mid Atlantic ridge in week 2, with temps possibly back up, fluctuating around the average mark to see out November; Obviously regional variation will become a factor here. A spell of colder weather looking likely in week 2 then, which could possibly provide the first frosts and morning ice for some of us. Doesn't appear to be anything too lengthy though, although with an amplified Atlantic pattern, it does provide reload possibilities as we enter winter proper, although of course, that's pure speculation at this stage.

The tops of the Brecon Beacons have had their first dusting of snow of the season;So I would be quite suprised if Snowdon hasn't had something by now.

You do realise that the 850hpa temperatures are only one small ingredient in predicting snowfall and should never be taken in isolation. Just because the 850hpa temperatures are modelled as -8c doesn't automatically preclude PPN falling as snow.We need to look at other factors too, including but not exclusively;- SST's around the UK. These could mix the 850hpa temps out a little and thus something less cold might be present at the surface, where we are!- Dewpoints. These ideally need to be below freezing too, especially if your looking for something away from slush that might provide a settling scenario- Wet Bulb Freezing Level. Essentially this is the level of height required where the change over from rain - snow (and vice versa) is present. - Elevation. As above, the higher up you are the less chance you have of seeing any colder 850hpa air getting mixed out.- Thickness Values. These are the values that are normally associated with lower pressure. These need to ideally be below 528DAM for snowfall to become a possibility.- Ground Tenperatures. If the ground is warm then any snow won't stay for long.This can obviously work the other way too, with snowfall possible under -2c/-3c 850hpa temps etc, showing how the 850hpa temperatures aren't the decisive factor alone when forecasting snowfall.

Now the word "Blizzards" often gets overused/easily used on here but there is no question that if those charts verified, some of us would experience a true blizzard! The downside, there is more chance of England winning the World Cup next year than those charts have of verifying!

So there is the chance of a northerly then? lol.

It will do in a few days. Some frosty nights and crisp mornings hopefully. Don't think you'll get one tonight, whether it was forecast or not. Probability increases later in the week though.

Close but not quite close enough. The whole Atlantic pattern needed a further push S/SE to add a Wintery threat this morning;Never mind, all still very early for our part of the world though. An increase in heights affecting us as next week progresses which should hopefully dry things up to some degree and dependant on a lot of factors that won't be established until nearer the time, some frosty and foggy autumnal mornings a possibility.

So often recently have we seen showers stream of the Bristol Channel. Plenty of activity out there now hitting the usual areas prone to Channel showers.

Worth noting the spread for the area though;EC mean, although definetly showing an amplified pattern, prefers a less progressively blocked pattern compared to the Op;Support is gathering for higher pressure to drift up from our SW, at first towards the UK turning things less unsettled the further south you are. This is in the medium timeframe and is supported well amongst most NWP suites;It's where the cell settles in the longer timeframe that will be critical to surface conditions for the UK into the second half of November. A multitude of options available, although a position somewhere to the west (be it W/NW/SW) is favoured more so currently. The Iceland GEFS show an increasing favouritism for a higher level of pressure there;As do the Iceland NAEFS suite;So support for the preferred NW route, but still one of many equally possible options. The NAEFS spread highlighting the greater than average uncertainty around the North Atlantic/Southern Greenland area;Although the anomaly guidance does, at least for now, show tentitive signs of a less active Atlantic pattern with something colder possibly evolving;The signs are definetly there for something a little more interesting for the cold lover, but it really is at a tentitive early stage currently. Looking at the 850hpa forecasts will be fruitless until we can get something a little more concrete regarding pressure distribution over the Atlantic region. I expect this won't be for a while though. In the more medium timeframe we do look like seeing something of a rise in pressure a little nearer to home, with something drier for the south inparticular in the offering.It's not uncommon for a settled spell to precede a colder spell. Could this be another example of this?

Yup, looking that way;A few of us might even get an air frost if your from a more prone, rural location.

I hope you didn't go to Uni to learn that! lol.

Someone just watched the BBC weather by Chris Fawkes!

You can see the shower clouds streaming in off the Bristol Channel here; http://neige.meteociel.fr/satellite/anim_ir.gif

Looks like I've just found the "Gottolovethisweather thread". I'm thinking that with the increased velocity aloft and strong sheer, there is the possibility that a few of this evenings and tonight's showers could be thundery for some. The 15kft layer is certainly looking unstable later today and at times, very unstable. Along with the strong winds, could we see a squall set up?

It's windy enough out there now. A blizzard of leaves are blowing off the surrounding trees and my wheelie bin is doing the Salsa. Lets hope things move through quicker than forecast and it improves to some degree tonight.

A good chance I might be going to Bridgwater carnival tonight too. My son definetly is anyway.Unfortunetly, the winds will worsen down that way this afternoon and look like peaking for Bridgwater some time in the evening. Expect gusts of 50mph in Bridgwater, with it quite likely to reach 60mph at times too. Along with frequent heavy and possibly thundery showers this evening coming off the Bristol Channel it really couldn't be much worse for the carnival.

Some modest gusts likely along Bristol Channel coasts tomorrow afternoon and evening; Bridgwater carnival is tomorrow night along with some firework displays in Burnham & Weston Super Mare so not ideal conditions for these events. Nothing noteable in itself, but with recent winds weakening tree and outdoor structures over the past week, along with an ever sudden ground with recent rains, it's enough to cause some further tree deaths and possible minor garden damage etc.