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Kentish Snowman in Yorks

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Posts posted by Kentish Snowman in Yorks

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, Jono E said:

    Dan Hutchings, Stateside, is ramping up an unprecedented extreme jet stream developing toward the tail end of next week. Due to extreme temperature gradients and other global anomalies. This is what the models are now factoring in and …I’m afraid it leads to a raging PV and a prolonged zonal setup. Looking to March now ! 

    And what if said raging jet passes to the South of the UK?  Possible multiple snow opportunities?

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    Some very strange goings on around day 4 in the ensembles. The cause of this appears to be a shortwave appearing on the core low heights over Scandinavia that passes fairly close to the east coast of Scotland, this appears to enhance the depth of cold sweeping down the eastern side of the country.

    Just posting one ensemble to show this;

    image.thumb.png.4c4fcb3cb3b46e398ba70621190d2780.png

    Note the kink east of Scotland on here.

    So lets see if any other models showed this;

    ECM

    image.thumb.png.51a7fb6476b608462afde1507cd9046e.png

    It is sort of there to the north of Scotland, but it gets more absorbed into the part low. It might be worth keeping an eye on because a shallow system with embedded frigid air appears and heading close to the UK could be the surprise we were hoping for.

    Surely potential for lows of the polar variety to form in a flow that cold?  🥶 

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    This pub run doesn't see positive uppers getting any further north than around a line from Manchester to Hull before diving South again.

    Better than the 12z and again highlights the risk of battleground snow.

    I still think the cold will stay much further South than what the GFS is showing regardless.  Interesting times ❄️ 

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, TillyS said:

    Assuming this verifies the last 10 days:

    ECM 9/10. Rock solid.

    UKMO 5/10. Has flip-flopped.

    GFS 2/10. Which is being generous.

     

    JMA, EC46, GEM etc. etc. best avoided for sanity

    p.s. there’s also a slight tendency to bash a model output when it doesn’t show our weather preference? 😉 

    I don't know which output you are referring to when talking about the ECM as the difference between last night's run and this morning's is night and day?

    Last night's run looked decent with a Greenland wedge if you're of a cold persuasion and this morning's is well....the less said the better!

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    This GFS run, whatever it shows in the end, seems unlikely with how it handles the low from just 48h, serenely making its way E/NE with absolutely no influence from the dense cold air to its E/NE.

    gfsnh-0-96.png?12

    Not sure how much that will affect the overall longwave outcome but a strange run anyway.

     

    LOL goodbye Ireland

    image.thumb.png.8b84ead29e4b9638f110f85ff448eaef.png

     

    I think the milder air now looks very likely to win out for a time, it is just a case of whether we can quickly re-establish some blocking toward mid Dec or whether we revert to zonal.

    That looks to be very much in the balance even if we can't keep the current cold and blocking.

    GEM with a decent effort.

    gemnh-0-168.png?12

    Agreed.  With the potential proper breakdown of cold still some 120 hours away I don't think we have seen the end of the drama yet. 

    ECM to pull out a corker the pub run follows up and then we will be bought back down to earth on the morning runs you watch!  😀 

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Derecho said:

    The problem with the output this morning is that an area of low pressure between Norway and Greenland changes the orientation of the high further NE.

    image.thumb.png.5b210613d16f50c34f14936ae359aafd.pngimage.thumb.png.0e4e017b5e8db23aff75099bf2dc9d56.png

    The intense cold doesn't reach Scandi and is more confined to western Russia.

    The mild air then has a free ticket to push through Scandi later in the run.

    Poor output sadly.

    Yeah but is it right?  The actual weather might have other ideas?  Intriguing output to keep us on the edge of our seats at least.

    Fully expecting another swing back to extended cold on this afternoons runs as I just cannot see that cold over Scandi being shifted so easily...

    • Like 2
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