[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Really annoys when all the people start coming out with the I told you posts. This cold spell hasn't even started yet. Just wait and see 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

What I find interesting with the MJO is that when it gets into so cold favourable cold sectors for us, that we just get a mid latitude block or brief cold spell like next week.

Yet, now that the MJO is moving into unfavourable sectors for cold the NAO goes rock solid positive for weeks.

The opposite never seems to occur.

It's 

 

4 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

“Don’t worry too much about snow chances. Small features will always pop up at short notice that the models won’t yet see”.

I must have read this comment a thousand times in some form over the last few days. 
 

So what has changed? I know people may be a bit grumpy that the models are firming up on an end to this cold spell. But there seems to have been a complete collapse in excitement for the next week. Are people simply overreacting to Wednesdays low no longer going in the desired direction. Or is there something else?

To be fair I understand folk in the South being disappointed. Only a couple of days ago they were promised a intense snowstorm, now they'll be lucky to see a few flakes.

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

25 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Met office latest thinking for Tuesday 

There's no mention of it in the mad thread but not surprising as it's not happening in the south!!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Nick123 said:

And it now looks like the very southerly track has become a lot more likely. Expect updates 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

10 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

??? The low will head back north in the next few days. The pros at the Met said there was only a low probability of the low staying in France.

The pros also gave 2 other options, they said unlikely, but all the same was on table. And it now looks like the southerly track has become a lot more likely. Expect updates 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Harveyslugger said:

Did 2010 do that?

I'm pretty sure it did. Mind there wasn't all this drama either so... just feels different this year 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

A block that keeps upgrading closer to the time... where have I seen that before? Hmmm

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

I've got a sneaky feeling this is merely the starter. I think we could be in for a very tasty late jan/Feb. Keeping the faith

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Can anyone give me a link for the lead up to 2010 on here? I'd be fascinated to see how that played out

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, GokouD said:

Wow, that would be genuinely heart-breaking IMBY... I'll just have to try and be happy for the Southerners haha.

Don't worry, it'll move again. I wouldn't be getting excited until a few days before if I was in the South. Its nice to look at but its a lottery at the minute, someone will hit the jackpot, but who? France or the South? 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Nick123 said:

Yes just nice to look at, couldn't have been drawn better for me If I'd done it myself lol

And thank you for taking the time to respond by the way

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Would probably be shown as a trough with those arrows on it 

very much a snow maker but not worth pinning your hopes at this range 

Yes just nice to look at, couldn't have been drawn better for me If I'd done it myself lol

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Looks like a convergence zone judging by the winds 

 

Is that where the winds meet to create a fun zone? Wish I was better at terminology lol

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Not sure but it sure looks a crazy chart ️

I think a lot of people would bank that!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

20 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Guess what was showing on the ECM 6z ️️️ That low was heading Into the U.K. into cold air - likely a big snow event again midlands south - this is T144 and it’s heading in 

And a streamer on steroids heading bang on straight for me?

Bank!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

There was a famous one, but it came from the east and literally shut SE London down for three days.

Oh I remember that. Feb 2nd 2009 I believe?

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Yes I'm not saying it will indefinitely be dry just that the models look dry with a lack of fronts / showers this morning. Not sure what is so bad about that?

Well that's how I'm reading it too unless my glasses are broken  

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Duane S. said:

Yes, it does make me laugh how once someone states it will be dry, they then have to go to great lengths to ‘prove it’.

Surely the irony of desperately trying to prove a point, based on something (that hasn’t yet even occurred) that will be missing all sorts of macro details at this far out stage, isn’t just lost on me? 

 

People are just sayin' what the models are saying problem is folk don't like it lol

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Gah headache central this morning. Unfortunately from what I can see ( amateur here but have been following weather and forum for years) have to agree with Kasim and tilly. I think the main opportunity from this spell was that low coming into play. Now we are in real danger (as its gone south) of getting a bog standard cold but no fun type event. Which I personally hate!!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

What a blooming roller-coaster this week has been. I've gone from saying I was having a haitus until the weekend to being absolutely glued to this forum and I can't take my eyes off it!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, snowbob said:

Depends how hungry you are I suppose

Wish there was a laugh reaction

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Bats32 said:

The south will be buried if that comeS off.

National emergency and army called In. Meanwhile us northerners will have to wear another layer and maybe some gloves

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Wonder if the metoffice will take note. Will have to change their 10 day if this continues tomorrow..

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Big Gally said:

Met4cast alluded to this earlier. 

Look at all the ppn coming out of scandy, NE wind and we could be in business?

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Not a fan of deep snow cover and severely cold temperatures?

@Nick123 I think models are converging on the pattern now - and it's a very good pattern given the activity to our South West. Obviously details and potential warm sectors very uncertain but the trend that is gathering pace is highly supportive of eventful and cold UK weather.

Thank you so much for replying.