coldwinter
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Posts posted by coldwinter
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Just now, mb018538 said:
Just need to be wary of the 00z ecm. Looks like an outlier at present but would be a real spoiler if it came off.
I wouldnt mind it to be honest, some rain in between the warmth is perfect for growing plants!
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Cracking outlook! Lots of warmth and sunshine on the way next week, hopefully the end of the desperate snow chasing for the season! High pressure looks close by for the bulk of April. Enjoy sensibly all and stay safe
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45 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
GEM is probably best case scenario. :
Another typical highly over amplified chart from the GEM. Probably see some Polar Maritime in the mix to end the month, capping off an absolutely woeful winter. All eyes on how the final warming will develop!
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Morning all! Things going as expected really! Was never any real support for a bitter Northerly. High pressure in charge until the 24th, the a north westerly flow at times taking us into February. Good for hills in the North but little signal to suggest widely snow conducive air.
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Morning all. I think a broad North westerly flow is likely for the last 5 days or so of the month, with just a chance that we can squeeze some cold enough air to give some wintryness away from hills. Best case would be a good toppler, little sign of any high lat blocking
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Excellent 6z with high pressure firmly in charge! Builds in from the 18th and should last a week
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A crushing morning for cold fans. Northerly has collapsed like a Jenga tower in an earthquake. High pressure close by is the favoured outcome, with hopefully some clear skies so frost/fog are on offer
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11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
Not sure it is as simple as that, ECM and GEM at T240, ECM first
Both amplified, but by this point various mechanisms have shoved the trop PV to Siberia on GEM, ECM less successfully. But these are just two outcomes of uncertainty that occurs much earlier in the runs, people need to understand uncertainty!
It is that simple though. People do need to be realistic, the amount of hype on here at times has been laughable! Sure we could end up with a very cold northerly, but little point in getting excited until it is much closer in, our experience tells us the majority of times a big northerly is modelled it is less amplified and further east in reality, fingers are very much crossed for something but at the moment it is a lower likelihood
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ECM flatter and further east, hence nothing of note. No surprise, this happens 99 times out of 100, of course, could still change back, but people need to be realistic
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2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:
I can't help but notice how as soon has we get the first glimmer of a cold shot, it's quickly shot down in its chances by some. The fact its showing at all must at least give us some hope, let's face it, even day 9 and 10 cold charts have been lacking anything wintry this year so far... Lovely day 9/10 ECM chart... Let's build on it hopefully!! Oh and big welcome to Retron, a very good poster from two.... Somethings a brewing when he turns up..
Experience tells us that the ECM evolution happens 1 time out of a hundred, this is the reality. Currently a potent northerly is a low likelihood, let's see in the coming days if we can strengthen the signal or whether it will wain which is what happens the vast majority of times. I don't think I've posted since early December as there has been no signal for anything cold since the polar maritime around the 12th, this is the reality! Let's watch and wait
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Who would of thought it? Lol. As a result of being better upstream we get to this, trough needs to trickle east to allow the floodgates to open
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Slightly flatter in the Atlantic early doors, but more amplified through the states into the Arctic, so should be a slightly better ridge
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Not much point looking further when the differences are so early, if the GFS has got it right at day 5 then we are pretty game on, can it trump the UKMO at that range? I would be surprised if it is as flat as the UKMO though, there should be some amplification. Onto ECM!
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06z ICON flatter and in line now with the other models
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Very poor GFS, Still time for things to go back the other way and give us at least a shot of some 'proper' cold, but squeaky bum time is fast approaching, fingers crossed!
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11 minutes ago, shaky said:
Changes early on low deeper across the uk which is what we dont want cos it just drags in milder air with it and also less amplification around eastern states!!but like steve says its the 06z so expect it!
It's still better than the UKMO, or has that now been binned as it doesnt show what we want?
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And you see what those differences early doors make. We need to go back the other way to get a decent cold spell, certainly, any further the other way and this will amount to little
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Not as sharp as the 00z, a touch sharper than the 12z GFS
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ECM 144 close to GFS, certainly a closer run thing with the phasing issue as the earlier GFS flagged up
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Big differences by day 6 so little point looking beyond then, 12z GFS has the Atlantic low further east thus a bigger wedge between them, better than the 6z run, might be just enough to get the Greenie high but a close run thing
Yep its there, this evolution is better for getting the proper cold in IMO, but very tight margins, those lows CANNOT phase. UKMO very different
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UKMO is OKAY but its not amazing as you arent building a nice Greenland high ala this mornings ECM, but at least it sint as bad as the GFS
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As said above, the EPS demonstrate it well by day 9, you can see the support for the lows phasing in the poor biggest cluster,while the other 2 smaller clusters are very good, as ever, fine margins for the UK, and as we have seen far too many times, we are on the wrong side of that margin, certainly caution required
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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
GFS Mean at day 6 fairly similar to the det ECM
Very noticable from day 6/7 onwards on the GEFS that Iberian heights are growing in strength rapidly, should we not grab this early oppourinty it could be a painful few weeks with that in situ, potentially drier than recent weeks though which is positive.
The change on the GFS and the GEFS is the low pressure south of Greenland, it is deeper and it doesnt move east and there isnt enough of a ridge in between it and the low coming out of Newfoundland, if those two lows phase then the Greenland high wont happen. It is a perfectly feasible solution for them to phase, coldies will want them not to, very tight margins as ever for the UK
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Very poor GEFS. Pretty much only one goes with the 00z run, let's hope they are too fast with that low, the 6z can be too fast, let's see what the 12'z do!
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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
The CFS has a very strong negative zonal wind bias, and November SSW's are as rare as hens teeth. Honestly not worth looking at IMO