coldwinter
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Posts posted by coldwinter
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1 hour ago, Nick L said:
The EC seasonal has updated today. The GH500 anomalies throughout the winter are signalling fairly significant high-lat blocking. What I'm liking about this is that it's reasonably consistent with last month's run. Pinch of salt, definitely, but for coldies there is hope.
When does the high lat blocking start? Sometime in November?
Ryan
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1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:
According to some posters at american weather the lastest EC seasonal shows a negative AO and NAO (easterly variant) .
Although not certain how reliable this source is. We have to wait for Fergie.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48174-winter-20162017-because-its-never-too-early/?page=34
Isnt that talking about the update from September? I believe Fergie will update us for this months run later in the week
Ryan
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Sunset from last night
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A few old ones from me.....
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The GEFS mean get even better at 240hrs. Vast improvement on the 6z. Awaiting the ecm the see where that thinks we will head in the next 7 to 10 days.
Thats the control, but its still fanatstic. Here is the T240 mean, http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9285/gensnh-21-1-240_ddj1.png
Ryan.
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Out of interest, does anyone remember what phases the MJO was in for DEC 2010?
This is a great link, shows what phase the MJO has been in.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
Ryan.
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I was wondering if some members could help. I've had to reboot my laptop and lost virtually all of my bookmarks. Im missing the link to the ECM ensembles and I also remember a site that had the ECM precip charts.
Going to need all my bookmarks because its pretty clear something is brewing towards the end of the month.
Are these the ECM ones you wanted?
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html
Ryan.
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Could there be some intense thundery showers tommorow in the yorks/lincs area? Check the soundings as they are pretty outstanding: maybe up to >900 CAPE. Looks interesting anyway. http://rasp.inn.leedsmet.ac.uk/RASPtable.html
Ryan.
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ryan - note the mean position 552 dam thickness remains almost clear of the entire country through two weeks. that means the upper air remains cool and surface conditions are unlikely to be above average, temp wise, the odd day apart. beyond that, we wait to see how the picture is likely to settle.
Thanks, but its a step in the right direction for those looking for warmer weather.
Ryan.
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CPC 8-14 dayer looks the same as yesterdays, not overly warm but as step in the right direction for those looking for warmer weather.
Ryan.
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Not sure how warm that would be..you need the mean ridge to our west to alter its position somewhat.
GFS ensemble mean H5 and 850 T anomalies for days 6-10 and 11-15 suggest unsettled (very unsettled first week) and cool becoming average, the warmth to our east:
The dynamical processes in the atmosphere have rather stuck themselves in the current wavelength, and no signal for significant change in the forseeable timeframe from my perspective. Unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain, below average temperatures through day 10, thereafter something of a recovery to average or possibly a shade above but remaining unsettled with mean trough solution for the UK and -NAO / neutral - negative AO regime.
Yes, a continuation of the unsettled theme looks very likely in the forseeable but temperatures perhaps edging above average at times though, with troughing close to the UK, whether the trough can edge west and pressure can build over europe we don't know, but certainly a contination of the unsettled theme.
Ryan.
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Naefs certainly should be trending this way as that chart is generated automatically from naefs raw output at the weekend !!!!
Sorry my bad, but i bet it will look similar on Monday, i forget that it is generated from NAEFS at weekends.
Ryan.
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This is interesting, the trough moves to the west/south west of the UK, this, as mentioned by others could give a warm and potentially thundery spell, NAEFS also trending this way.
Ryan
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While it's true the models would be generating a lot more interest were we in Jan or Feb, there is something else that could still yet generate a lot of interest in them...
http://www.telegraph...was-bad....html
As we pass the second anniversary of the eruption of a big Icelandic volcano that caused air travel chaos in Europe, the possibility of another much bigger one erupting would see all eyes focused on the modelling of those northerly winds, not just for the threat to air travel but potentially health reasons as well.
Thanks for link, that definately has the potential for some devastating consequences, its very worrying and a very real threat, an eruption is overdue and i think all eyes would be fixed on the model output if it erupted. Reagarding this weekends northerly surely we would see some snow showers down to low levels, not just low levels in the north but further down the country?
Ryan.
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Well it looks as though next weekend could be quite wintry, with some snow showers coming in off a cold north to north easterly, very interesting and potent for April, can't believe theres not any more chat on this.
Ryan.
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Latest NAE shows a definate snow risk across lincolnshire, central regions and into wales. Yeah the CPC chart does look chilly with the possibility of wintry weather from a northerly quadrant. Certainly a different month to March.
Very interesting couple of days coming up.
Ryan.
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CPC 8-14 dayer looks chilly and unsettled. Parts of central england could see a lot of snow as the front stalls and precipitation is quite heavy.
Ryan.
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This should ease the drought, for once not high pressure!
Ryan.
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GFS looks to bring in the potential for some thunderstorms next weekend as warmer air is drawn up from Africa next weekend as the air is quite unstable. Temperatures could be upto 18 or 19C, the strength of the sun should begin to really show soon.
Ryan.
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Well it did turn cold at the start of february, 5 degrees below average, but yes i think it was showing blocking for pretty much the whole month not just that, but overall i think it is a very good long range tool and obviously has to be taken with a pinch of salt.
Ryan.
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Interesting ECM in the latter stages, could be picking up on a blocking signal as we near april, didn't some of the GFS ensembles show that in the extended range. Something to watch this.
Possible pattern change early april as MJO looks to enter phase 6/7. ECM 32 dayer signals a change to colder more unsettled conditions in april, with possibily north or north east winds.
Latest EC 32 continues the dry, settled and mild signal until the end of March, but with a sig pattern change early April......high pressure becomes a feature to the W of the UK and temps drop below avg, with rainfall near or above avg & potential N or NE'ly winds (Matt Hugo)
Winter to return anyone?
Bring it on.
Ryan.
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Possible pattern change early april as MJO looks to enter phase 6/7. ECM 32 dayer signals a change to colder more unsettled conditions in april, with possibily north or north east winds.
Latest EC 32 continues the dry, settled and mild signal until the end of March, but with a sig pattern change early April......high pressure becomes a feature to the W of the UK and temps drop below avg, with rainfall near or above avg & potential N or NE'ly winds
Winter to return anyone?
Bring it on.
Ryan.
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The ECM doesn't look that sunny, at least to start with, i just hope that we can get a sunny high instead of this dreary grey dribble.
Ryan.
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
This one?