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coldwinter

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    Autumn 2011

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by coldwinter

    Isn't west based bad for our cold winter prospects, i thought west based indicates a more positive AO, but i am not sure. And i expect that the CFS is overdoing the la nina as other sites suggest much weaker conditions

    Quote from paul hudsons blog, During periods of low solar activity (few or no sunspots) an easterly QBO causes a negative AO, but a westerly QBO causes a positive AO. But now we have quite a few sunspots, 97 infact would this change the effect?

    Thanks.

    Autumn 2011

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    It made me laugh how in his forecast he said the la nina strengthing the jet stream is a GOOD thing because he was expecting easterlies. Im no meteoroligist and im not saying his forecast is wrong but hasn't he issued that same forecast for years and only December was the exeptional month not the rest of winter.

    Autumn 2011

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    LOL LOL anyway back to the topic, didn't the CFS pick up on the blocking for november/december this time last year, but now the ECM is apparently predicting the winter will be all over by the new year again, but i've heard it didn't pick up the nov/dec cold spell very well at all, any thoughts?

    Thanks, Ryan.

    Autumn 2011

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by coldwinter

    I can see a mixed winter on the cards (05/06) is what I'm thinking with a wet warm autumn and cold jan/feb possible.

    Hello, i personally think the cold will come as early as last year, and at the moment it is looking at a dryer autumn and possibly very dry november, with strong blocking throughout winter.

    Ryan.

    Autumn 2011

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I have just started reading this thread today...Early August seems to be a more timely time :) to appraoch the subject of the coming winter.

    But in reply to this comment in particular..I would say the following, in relation to this summer..

    Can you have a BBQ this summer without some idiot making noise with his/her hedge triimer ruining it? No

    Can you have fun in the park or local woodland as often as you would like this Summer without being either bitten to death by midges or annoyed to death by teenagers? No

    Can you sit outside with a beer at hand this summer ? no because Beer warms up way to quickyl in the direct sunlight, making it undrinkable very quickly

    Nuff said !

    Personally I would MUCH preffer to do all of the above in winter, the beer stays colder for longer, the midges have all gone, and the teenagers are all scared of the cold and are at home on their XBoxes

    And besides ALL of that.....WHAT SUMMER ??...did we have one this year ??

    Getting back on topic though...in the hope this post isn't deleted...My thoughts are that the coming winter will start cold...but not quite as early as last years did.

    I predict a very similar winter to what we all saw in 2009/2010 in that from Mid Dec through until Early Feb we'll all be thrown into the freezer.

    The near neutral ENSO or whatever it's called, and continued lack of sunspot activity, the near dissapearance of the Gulf stream from Mexico up to these shores, the consistant Southerly path of the Jet Stream, the continued Blocking of wherever it is ?? (Greenland), the continued cooling of the Waters to our West in the Atlantic , all point to us having something rather epic in the way of cold this year.

    So despite the fact that I'll likely have to pay through the roof for my gas bill, despite the fact that the economy will likely suffer somewhat, I say bring it on...the more days I get get off work due to mother nature the better.

    Epic post!

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