R.P. McMurphy
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Posts posted by R.P. McMurphy
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Says it all really, albeit this is pretty much where the centre will be, Faroe.
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Uh Oh....Faroe...
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Although it is further north, I can't work out what the center of that is showing?
It's showing -655 - Were Doomed.
In all seriousness... It looks around 905-915..
I'm just glad Knightrider didn't throw in the Nun joke !
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There's your 925 record breaker. Severe.
Thats unreal.
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Interesting, thanks for explaining that, so if this happens what will it mean? Higher wind speeds I'm guessing, but who'd have the worse of it? North or South?
North,
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Got any forecasts for 5th Jan '98? was my most unexpected snow ever, was Xceptionally heavy
Actually posted by Kevin himself !
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Thanks Cloud for these updates, it's quite interesting to compare each day - keep it up !
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Sounds like "cold zonality"
At least it won't be Mild.
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Those charts are often innacurate Glenn,
If I cannot base it on charts or data, how does one predict the weather?
Is it the old lick of the finger and place it in the air trick?
Ahhh Yes, Cold & Snow....
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There is still nothing in the current short, medium or long term modelling to suggest it will be cold Glenn. Temps look set to be near average across the northern half of the UK and still on the mild side generally for the southern half, though it will of course often feel cold in the wind and rain.
The current & medium term certainly looks to be on the Chilly side, unless you can show me otherwise? I woke up to a Frost yesterday, and it was bitter this morning, with potential snow predicted during the storm, i'd call that not average.
You are correct in assumption, some days will "feel" a little warmer, but I suppose that depends where you are, certainly not even close to mild weather.
Chilly & thats MAX.
Chilly, and thats MAX.
Chilly, and thats MAX.
Chilly, and thats MAX.
Towards the end of the run... Cold...
Not sure what else to show to prove the way we are heading?
Debilt & Ens again, just got fun.
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DeBilt also firming up for much colder weather.
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Agree re some colder scatter options, but not sure you can say 'nothing remotely mild appearing'...some of those runs maintain temperature level close to where they are presently.
Which going by recent temps and feel, its cold !
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Lots of colder scatter options showing now on the Ens, nothing remotely mild appearing.
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No wet and windy according to the Mod thread.
Southerners...
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Oh if only...
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White Christmas Anyone?
Obviously will change before then, but still nice to dream !
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i.e.: don't get so irate / combative etc about it all based on model output! Early coronary job. Not worth the stress! If it's a mild winter, then it's a mild one. Nothing can change that. Ditto if the converse is true. The joys of our insular land and it's weather vagaries... :-)
Weather God is not amused.
P.S - Can I have a copy of your mind dictionary !
"The joys of our insular land and it's weather vagaries" - No idea what it means, but i'm using that tomorrow if anyone stresses me out.
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Youve focussed too much on the GFS only that model has downgraded the storm, of course it could be correct but i would back a ECMWF, NAE combo.
Possibly, but with so much uncertainty on the positioning anything can happen... We will see.. Either way, batten down the hatches NI and NW Scotty.
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Exactly, anything over 74mph sustained is a hurricane and some predictions suggest that on exposed Irish and NW Scottish coasts sustained winds of 70mph+ are possible meaning gusts may well be approaching 100mph
Yes, certainly a strong storm, but not the worst we have seen, the past day it's been downgraded and downgraded, and the models still can't agree on the location of the low's final position.
Although I will point out, it's Hurricane Force, not an actual Hurricane.
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GFS 12Z downgrades any snow.
Annoying.
More runs to come though.,
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For such a dire set up I awoke to a dusting of snow this morning. Far too much negative spin put on the the model output, sure if you live in the South it's not so good but for a lot of others the outlook has a wintry look to it.
I think this is where the problems / negative comments about the models are coming from. The mountains here had a dusting too, which wasnt expected.
I woke to a harsh frost too.
It's mainly a North/South divide thing, as in for the South it's looking quite poor, but for the North we have things to shout about.
Just check out Metcheck forecast for Buxton, or take a look at the charts = lots of snow.
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GFS is rolling out and it looks stronger!
Yep, looking stronger already.
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Immense and powerful as it might well turn out to be it won't live up to 1987 and I'm sure people in the Phillippines would even consider that nothing more then a fresh breeze lol :-P
MetO might have warned well about the last Scottish storm but there wasn't as much mention of it in the papers as say St'Jude for example which got hyped to be the biggest storm in living memory and in the end turned out to be a storm being born rather then 1 at it's peak (just ask the people in Denmark that experienced her full power less then 24 hours later)! Here she turned out to be rather anti-climatic to say the least.
As I said earlier Isle of Man is going to get battered lmao
I don't think anyone compared it to 1987 to be honest, and i'm not sure why we are talking about people in the Phillippines?
People lost their lives in the last storm, along with property and belongings. The storm on Wednesday night & Thursday is going to be bad by UK standards, and it's not something to be ignored to be fair.
I also don't think it's any laughing matter that the "Isle of Man is going to get battered". Some folk just don't realise how deadly, and how dangerous bad weather can actually be...
Just ask the family members of poor souls who have lost their lives.
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Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Well, little to offer tonight with the charts...
Christmas day looking very unsettled, strong wind, wet, feeling cold, with the potential for something wintry, especially on higher ground Northern England/Scotland.
It's not long before the next LP system moves in... Wet & Windy, not as cold, especially in the SE...
New years eve see's potential for some milder weather, perhaps double figures in a SW flow...
New years day shows potential for something wintry across high ground and NW England...
The start of the new year shows something which may be of interest: