R.P. McMurphy
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Posts posted by R.P. McMurphy
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Thats Lovely. That big pool of PPN looks like Lake Effect from Warm North Sea...
Sexual Chocolate !
Come to papa!
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I'm guessing the temp contrast over Lake Michigan aided the convection there. Unsurprisingly, SSTs over the North Sea are higher than average at the moment:
So if we can get an Easterly flow, that should help, one would think.
(BTW, nobody is allowed to tell their family/colleagues/pets about this possible cold outbreak. Understood?
)Yes, a good point to pick up, could be a decent Lake Effect ...
Credit to Weatherquestions.
Just to show what a LE can actually produce given the correct fine details:
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/huge-lake-effect-snow-expected-20140106
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From a IMBY point of view, I have a concern that we'll see the models pick-up on the dreaded short-wave in the Southern North Sea (due to the energy still available there), probably in the next 24 hours. This will initially (at least) probably restrict the deeper cold to more Northern areas, in which case we'll need the blocking to be sustained for a couple of days, before those in the South get to join in the fun (assuming the broad pattern is correct).
Yes, I agree with this sentiment. Any precipitation would probably fall as rain at first, then perhaps sleep/snow later on. North would be a different story, but heights always help. I still feel this is the first bite of the cherry though, and the real cold / snow is coming towards the end of the month.
Edit: Just to add it's mere speculation as trying to pinpoint falling snow is hard enough at T24 let alone now. Just basing on latest runs.
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Finally the hunt for cold and snow begins.
Certinaly not going to do a victory dance yet , but after enduring 6 weeks of mush and muck it's a joy to finally have a carrott dangling in front of us.
It is looking like a cold snap though as opposed to a cold spell, maybe 3-5 days before a return to Westerly's.
But i'd take that given what we have had up until now.
Hopefully th ensembles and 12z runs will continue the trend towards cold and potentially snowy.
Yep, agree with that.
A short cold snap with potential snow should wet the appetitie of some members here.
Atlantic to return, albeit IMO looking at the setups from the charts will be shortlived before more substantial blocking takes place and we get an actual decent cold SPELL running into February.
The stage is set, the signals are there... Enjoy coldies, it's been a long time coming.
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Very good support from the EPS members this morning at day 5 for a negatively tilted disrupted trough and a nicely orientated High to the NE for UK cold air advection thereafter. There are just a handful of members that positively tilt the trough and send energy NE, but this is quite some impressive turnaround of support for a cold spell to appear this quickly
As one who has suggested right up to last night that this Scandinavian High building attempt would likely be more successful another time round later in the month, coming against the background of such strong polar westerlies breaking down for the first time this season, I am surprised and of course delighted to be seeing this round of output this morning.
I will be much happier still however, to see this mornings lovely output consolidated in consecutive further outputs as a way of checking that the models haven't gone from what has been a rampant westerly regime - to overestimating the effectiveness of recent wave activity on the vortex. Hopefully it will be steady eddy all the way
Hi Tamara,
While it certainly looks interesting for next week, I still think you are correct in first estimations, re second bite of the cold further into the month.
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Excellent charts this morning for cold developing widely in the medium time frame, particularly for Southern England, where we expect snow and a developing cold pool to become a feature later next week. However, this will be firmed up in the shorter time frame. Will speak to our portal service experts later with updates regarding snowfall prediction and synoptic developments.
c
Thanks for the update Carinthian, it appears your models have been quite the ever so reliant over the past couple of week, especially picking out the cold blast, kudos to you and your team.
The snow for Southern England, are you talking about the feature to cross the channel next week (rain to snow event)... But with more potential upgrades, who knows, they could get snowed in !
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This will give you tingles first thing in the morning !
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actually glenn, it isnt much different than the op for us. and then it goes all less cold post day 10 and eventually settled under an mlb.
Yep thats true ba... But it's well into the future and all it takes is a little tweaking and who knows what will crop up. Certainly the first time of real interest to be viewing the models non the less.
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Ignoring the OP, the Control is lovely.
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Lol BA...
But to V's point, it's pretty darn annoying in the media...
I keep hearing it's a "one off phenomenom".... The Media... Sigh.
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Cold getting nudged back east a bit, slightly milder uppers over UK
Yep, very marginal for the UK - good for HIGH HIGH ground... Lots of twists and turns to come... Can the block hold out, or will the Atlantic smash through and break it? Fun times ahead.. It's probably time to Ensemble watch from here...
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Heavy rain and strong winds apart from briefly on high ground in Scotland at +168? A classic? Seems the same old picture, a block trying to develop to the NE but overwhelmed by the Atlantic
With a few corrections your looking at battleground heavy snow UK wide. You are correct though, at the moment Scotland and far North of England will be happy.
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Holy Sheeshkebab if this came off:
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Wow blizzards at 168hrs as the cold air undercuts the precip! now you need to see that low quickly disrupt allowing the high to ridge west over the top.
Just noticed that, very nice indeed. Although it looks extremely marginal for the south on that, but North would see snow.
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The battle for Middle Earth, begins...
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In the words of Sharon Osbourne...
Faaaaabulous...
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Some members = stellar.
Pick of the bunch for me..
It's funny, some will remember Frosty, myself and a few select others looking for trends re the GFS at least a week ago or maybe two... And by that point it was showing similar developments with cold flooding from the East... Albeit it reverted to more Zonal, but as we get nearer the time frame it was predicting, it's looking very much the same.
If Pert 12 came off this place would finally meltdown.
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id like to add this I noticed them charts by summer sun im a little confused when the models are showing this
but summer charts show this
One is the 850's and the second is the 2m surface.
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Nice to see... 35-45% building towards Scandinavia.
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The main reason I don't buy a stonking Easterly in the next 2 weeks though is the background signals, strat to me suggests its been put back even further, I still believe we will get a potent cold spell but looking like feb now - night all!
Yep - nothing set in stone yet. Signals are for cold. Signals are for Easterly/NE. Strat is warming = good sign.
Atlantic = Powerful .
My OP - Brief cold spell with snow showers, before Atlantic powers through again... More blocking in early feb = prolonged cold this time with snow.
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NAE picks up the feature more:
Note: a lot of rain for NW Scotland...
Another feature for Wednesday:
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http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html
Just to highlight the recent GFS performance - now in forth behind the GEM which is TOP!S
No doubt about it Steve, coupled with your outrageously good post above, that chart speaks for itself, the GFS lately has fallen off the cliffe and cannot be trusted at all. Lets hope the revamp of it this year will also aid us in forecasting the future !
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back to the models...
As above.. Some places might see some snow from this chart, but height will help greatly. It's a long way off, but most of the models appear to be latching onto something colder during the second half of January. The only problem is, it's not too long before the Atlantic starts to fire up again.
We really need the cold to dig in to our East and push, push, push, or I fear it's going to be over rather quickly.
Time will tell, but very interesting developments, and finally a good time to be looking at the models !
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LolI know it got down to -16.5C on my thermometer on the 8th January 2010 but there are no official records for Irlam.
Yep, I remember that one alright, pretty darn cold... Not to mention the snow... Best year I can remember that.
I'm just trying to see various setups needed for snow in this area of the UK... You know how low we are and that never helps !
)
Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Good run already.
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Stronger heights to our North. Stronger block: