[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

And only 8 days away..what could possibly go wrong gawd just for once could the ecm verify instead of leading us up the garden path all the time.

 

Yup, it's very hard to trust anything past 84 hours or so at the moment - we even had quite a good agreement with the ECM last time... Next day... We all know what happened.

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14]

Rain...

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14]

2C here, and dew point is 0.6C - so should be crappy rain as usual.

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14]

I think we have had 2 frosts this year? Shocking!

Heading up to Teggs Nose today, it's about 360M ASL, so potential for some snow while I'm walking the dog.

Was going to go somewhere else in the peaks, it's 630M ASL so a guarantee snow, but with the missus 9 months pregnant I can't risk being out so far !

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

Look at this chart, looks like a big bladder under those twin lows to discharge its content over the British Isles. Gives a whole new meaning to peeing it down.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

That's the best terminology I have heard lol !Forget all your Shannon Entropy etc words....It's, The Bladder Low.

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14]

Temp 32.5C - Having a nice BBQ, tan lines already.

 

GTFO WInter 2013/14.

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14]

http://www.derbyshireheritage.co.uk/Menu/webcams/camlist.php

 

Snowing in Chesterfield. Leek, Matlock Bath & the A537 (Cat & Fiddle)

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

... and having just chatted to an Exeter colleague asking if I'd seen the EC ENS for later next week/weekend, the talk is of absolutely the opposite re 'disappointment' for coldies. Enough said.

 

I think I just weed.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

This is the problem and until the MO come on board with this caution will remain the watchword imo.

 

I'm sure someone will come up with an example, but I'm strugging to remember a time when they we badly wrong with their 6-15 day forecasts across any season. I guess it's more than a tad ironic that whilst this is very much the case, the short term forecast they issued for today after last nights 10pm BBC News was badly innaccurate in timing, extent and intensity of rainfall....you couldn't make it up really!

 

Yes, that forecast went all wrong really - But was this due to underestimating the strength of the block out East? Maybe so if you look at how the low has quickly in the wrong direction they were saying...

 

It's not often the Met Office are wrong to be honest, but with pretty much 85% agreement of a cold and potentially snowy spell next week, they don't mention anything, and until they do, I usher caution. Lets not forget, they do have access to a much broader scale of charts than we do... And they are Professionals.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

 

I'd LOVE it to snow next week, god oinly knows I love snow as muxch as everybody else, but I'm not going to allow myself to be lead up the garden path by charts that are close, but not close enough IMBY and I've learn't the hard way not to get excited about a North Westerly epecially if the cold air isn't already in place before it arrives !!!

 

 

I think we are all well aware that charts in advance and never a guarantee, but I think many of times the Mods & Paul has stated, if you have a post along the lines of "I dont think it will do this" Just Because you have that gut feeling, or it's happened before, then that should be in the Banter thread, as it's clearly not reflecting what all of the models are showing.

 

Your OP of the Atlantic will power through etc - is completely false, as no where does it show this on the charts, so why post it if it's a gut feeling, it confuses other members who don't kinow how to read the charts or are struggling to read the charts.

 

I understand what you are saying, we have ALL been burnt many of times by charts showing very snowy periods and cold, because they are notoriously difficult to predict, so I am in full agreement with you there, we should not get excited until maybe T~48, even though I have seen it go belly up at T~24 before...

 

But please, please, please think before posting what your "Gut Feeling" is, because it's of no use to anyone.

 

Also this:

 

 

I've learn't the hard way not to get excited about a North Westerly epecially if the cold air isn't already in place before it arrives !!!

 

I'll have you know it snowed here yesterday at 20M ASL ! And that was from a super brief WNW flow.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Let's try to remember there is room for all views in here and certainly no need for name calling....agree re it being something that I'm coming on board, but I still have one foot on the harbour wall for now too..

 

Come on Shed, admit it, you have one foot and two toes on the harbour (snow) wall... And you're pleasantly enjoying yourself...

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

the ECM paints a very dull picture this morning with the cold air flooding out of Eastern Europe in the later stages.

 

This mornings GFS run paints a broadly similar picture, it's clear to me that the Atlantic is going to win this round and I think the battle too.

 

I'll get shot down for saying this, but for me we're in injury time, 2 - 0  down witrh 5 minutes of added time to be played.

 

next week looks cool, but I think a North West feed is pants for the vast majority, dew points unlikely to be condusive of snowfall for most except those in elevators.

 

I don't mean to come across as pessamistic, just realistic.

 

But just to balance things out .....

 

 

 

 

 

 

This mornings GFS run paints a broadly similar picture, it's clear to me that the Atlantic is going to win this round and I think the battle too.

 

What kind of statement is that to make then post the above images?

 

The GFS is fantastic for cold and snow towards the end of the month and into February.

 

 

Also regarding the ECM:

 

 

the ECM paints a very dull picture this morning

 

 

 

 

The whole country is under -5C 850's - and you come out with that statement.

 

I can't help but feel you are rather on a massive Wum, or simply don't know how to read the charts properly.

 

Even Shedhead's coming on board and that's saying something.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Whilst I don't want to pee on anyones fire I would point out how quickly the models flipped to this output from a largely westerly dominated set up yesterday.  Also the fact that the Meto and models were completely wrong with Fridays forecast as recently as yesterday.  I guess what I'm saying is there are a lot posters saying "nailed on cold" which can make us all look like fools if the models flip again.  I guess that's life if you live on the margins like we do in the UK.

 

Agree with some of this - A cold spell/snap is never nailed on in the UK - So we shouldn't get too hung up about it. The UKMO and ECM has been showing potential for cold to arrive next week for quite a few days now, and we do have quite a lot of X-Model agreement... So while nothing is nailed on, it's around 85% chance of it happening next week, and maybe even Sunday will throw up a few surprises.

 

I have been surprised today regarding the rain and how quickly / less intense it was shunted SSE, shows how strong that block is.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

tweet from Ian:

 

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather 7 mins

W COUNTRY After Sunday's rain, Monday ushers-in coldest spell of winter thus-far, with snow/ice possible across parts of the region by then

 

Yep, appears Met coming more on board as the models showing the block being a lot stronger that before. Looks like I was right to question this yesterday when Shedhead advised I was arguing his point...

 

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Tonights ECM 12Z has strengthened the blocking over the arctic considerably for day 5 when compared with yesterday,which results in everything backing west.

 

yesterday..ECH1-144.gif  today..ECH1-120.gif

 

Yup, back on topic that is a great chart - we almost have the Arctic-Scandi link up... Is Winter starting to finally wake up.... ?

 

If the models continue that pattern there's only one way it's going to turn out, and thats a cold Easterly flow.

 

I think Ian F mentioned something regarding the temperatures across Germany the other day?

 

 

Quite so, but the drop in WBFL to 400m by early hrs Mon is striking. More striking still, as the UKMO Dep Chief includes in his briefing, is the temperature contrast he highlights across former E Germany, noting this is important "...should the winds turn easterly next week...".

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

I don't think anyones arguing Shed, of course everyone appreciates Ians input. That's not the issue at all, just I think perhaps theres more uncertainty than the modelling suggests. And again our terminology in here might be a bit different to the UKMO, zonal in here normally means strong Azores high limpet PV to the north and  west/sw flow for the majority of the time, and that's not what I see from the modelling. So I think the term zonal used probably means the proximity of low pressure rather than the normal terror term that most people associate with that word zonal.

 

Yep thanks for this Nick, didn't see shed's post - due to a neat feature on NW... But to add my stance I wasn't hell bent on anything, just merely asking for clarification, & I have liked Ian's post due to his response, it clears it up well.

 

Ian's posting on here is invaluable, and I do hope he feels like people are not hell bent on disagreeing with him. I'm certainly a fan... Maybe a quick autograph Ian ?

 

Next week is still up in the air, as we all know a week's worth of Model Output does not have the best verification stats, and it's nice to hear 10% of members still going for an Easterly next week, so it;s all still to play for, albeit 90% go for some form of "Zonal" - maybe Ian can clear up what they refer to as Zonal ?

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14]

That was a real nice surprise that. Coming down the M60 I spotted that huge streamer and seen how intense it looked...

BOOM thunder followed by Lightening as I approached....

Still not under the streamer yet.... I glanced at the temperature gauge... 8C....

500 yards more down the M60...huge hail storm, I'm now under the streamer... Temp gauge, 8C...7C....6C....5C....4C....3C.... Snow starts falling, sleet, hail... More snow...

The Great British Weather ! You have to love it.

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14]

Wow look at that streamer. First snow of the winter

It's well heavy. It was 7C and when I got under that cloud it went to 3C lightning and heavy snow/hail

Thundersnow

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Correct - and I've just come of a conference with UKMO who remain confident on that ultimate outcome (and they aren't expecting any issues re lowland snow across southern England next week, as everything currently sits model-wise, but I think we'd all gathered that from the models ourselves). The rain issues, on the other hand, are top of the agenda. Tomorrow offers e.g. 10-15mm 30%PROB 20mm Somerset Levels; same area Sunday 15-25mm with to 35mm possible locally. EA have raised to Amber there too.

 

Hmmm.. How does one have high confidence circa 10 days in advance to a return of Zonal & no issues regards lowland snow, but a 30% probability of 10-15mm of rain for the next day?

 

I would take it with a pinch of salt re snow issues next week, especially amounts/quantities. I can count a lot of times the forecast has been "Little snow" and turned out to be quite a lot.

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14]

Yup, wet & horrible... But Winters coming if UKMO comes off we will all be rolling in white stuff.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Not quite the whole picture, it is more a cold zonal theme, and on hills especially at least some of that precipitation is more likely to be of a white nature rather than a wet one.

 

Yep, it wasn't really correct & wasn't the whole picture as you say. Just look where the 528 DAM is in that Cold flow. Would be wintry for quite a few places.

 

But none the less, it's FI and won't stay like that.

 

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14]

Hoping the peaks get some snow tomorrow and possibly weekend - would head up there with the dog !

 

Sunday is a worthy date.

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14]

Cecil

GFS0Z is pants,nothing more,nothing less.UKMO looks slightly more favourable but can't see the 850s so not sure if its cold rain on the menu,or snow.

 

WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU?

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14]

Good man, so it happens !

 

I remember the Thundersnow last year very well - infact I don't remember another event of it for IMBY - probably was one, but I don't remember.

 

Amazing though them, gives me memories.

[North West Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14]

I have been reading on the model thread and two members who say they are from the NW on their avatar seem to be missing something or am I?It's not the perfect set up but there is a chance of something wintry for our region if those cold WNW flows do occur.

 

I don't understand it either. There is a chance no doubt, and pretty much the first one this winter - ina  WNW flow it's not the most ideal, but it can snow.

 

Any historical WNW flow charts Kev ?