R.P. McMurphy
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Posts posted by R.P. McMurphy
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What was the coldest temperate ever recorded in England?
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Good chart from the JMA...
Are we finally heading towards cold and snow? Come of GFS... Get with it !
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New addition to the ECM maps on meteociel is this
Good chart Gavin.
Seems someone will see frontal snow from this, we just need it to push more west.
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God GEM, pleasssssssse!!
Mind you it gives interest as soon as middle of this week
MetO have their eye on this too....it could be a troublesome for the south. And this is worthwhile watching.....
BFTP
Yes, a great GEM chart tonight, and a good post by Bluearmy highlighting the GEM is in fact most models rolled into 1... But at T240 - would rather draw my own than any chance of it verifying, but, a step in the right direction... Lets hope it continues.
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Ecmwf???
What about it?
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Nice chart from the GEM if it's snow you want...
EDIT:The Eagle beat me too it.
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the difference between FI and F1 is, with FI you wait 2 hours to see an outcome which will most likely never happen. with F1, you wait 5 minutes to see the most likely outcome after 2 hours.....
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Ah Frosty your
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Any model that shows cold and snow is good enough for me, be it the
boom..bom,jam..jmaI remain positive for a cold further outlook with an end to this stormy autumnal weather arriving soon.
Yep.
Looking at the models I can see cold developing middle of January and this will last well into April i would think,... With snow for the majority of places. the CFS clearly shows this, as does the GFS with support from every other model. I would think many ice days to come with the Atlantic completely shut down.
Fun times ahead. 1987 looks a certaintly.
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In an attempt to discuss the models
this is what will hold our high in situ for longer- The energy & subsequent small shortwave at 120 aiming into the high on the Euro heads directly into the block in a NE direction.
where as the JMA has it going directly North- this is what we want!
Look at that acute angle-
S
You and Nick should be nominated for Paint awards...
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Wow what a Winter some people are having
, sea ice in the med too Gaz, reporting from the Bar....
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Think he meant the far NW or England... Lakes etc.
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With any luck, the warm seas will cause a snow bonanza...I wonder what the pub run will show?
Good point, convection !
It's not a Pub Run Mr Tattum !!!
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Hmmmm.....that finger of uppers near Scandinavia.
Today's earlier 12z
Good shout. Almost identical there.
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Residents have been told to evacuate homes in Aberystwyth and Portland, Dorest ASAP....
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I'd have thrown up... Great pictures.
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Changing my words a bit there, I said it is most likely to do that. Typically January is the best bet for a wintry spell, and as the reliable outlook remains mild, as far as I see it unless things change soon then it is unlikely. We haven't been close so far this winter and we are locked into a zonal pattern, does anyone have any charts in the reliable time frame that suggest this will change otherwise....?
Hi robthefool, I can help you here...
Great Arctic High from the JMA
Cold run with snow around some favoured spots
Something great around the corner from the JMA..
ECM Easterly incoming...
Arghghg, incoming...
Good model agreement from the ECM and UKMO... Great signs for coldies... Coupled with the Ian F update/Met Office...
P.S - Won't be able to respond to any questions you may have after this, so apologies in advance.
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Beat news today IMO is from Ian when he said (before the ECM) that the models we see haven't yet picked up the cold signal for latter in the month. Hopefully the ECM was just the start of them coming onboard
Hi Tim,
Yes, good news for coldies in that respect. The GFS to be fair has been flirting with this idea for quite a few days now, but obviously it goes further out. Great ECM signals tonight too, and I expect them to keep upgrading the cold after the middle of the month. Fun times ahead one thinks.
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It is a very poor run indeed very different from the 6z but I believe the 12z is more realistic about our chances and if I were a betting man I would put money on the 12z as being nearer the truth
Can you back this up with some charts as to why it's a Very poor run please? Or at least explain why? And also why the 12Z is more realistic?
Cheers,
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Hi Nick,
The post you just made, can you clarify what impact this will have on the UK weather (If any), and also what the "Upstream" part refers to or does please as I don't understand these charts at all let alone see what country it's over, but presume it's the good ol' US of A?
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Sorry, should have added images:
Lusty Glaze
Crantock:
Perranporth:
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Which model has the best MJO forecast? Any verifications available?
ECMWF has the highest skill of all the models for MJO.
, sea ice in the med too 
Late January-early February 1954 freeze
in Historic Weather
Posted
Blimey, that is cold...
Sorry, little off topic from your original post...What is the coldest for Irlam and also the hottest? And maybe most snowiest?