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essexweather

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Everything posted by essexweather

  1. essexweather
    Getting lots of tweets from North Essex that it's snowing.. there is hope yet for tonight
  2. essexweather
    Good spot there! Nothing showing up on latest NAE but something to look forward to nearer the time
  3. essexweather
    Plenty to be happy about on the new Met Office forecasts: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ee/ee_forecast_weather.html
  4. essexweather
    Gosh, the new text forecasts from the Met Office are poor for the SE: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london#?tab=regionalForecast&locId=se
  5. essexweather
    Finally some snowfall showing up on NAE for Essex and Kent tomorrow night - 2cm :o Still 2 runs until T+0 so maybe further upgrades
  6. essexweather
    The modified NAE looks fine Monday night into Tuesday, The marginal period is 15Z - 21Z from what I can see.
  7. essexweather
    NAE looks fine, snow inland across all parts of the South-East. Never had much interest in GFS precip output.
  8. essexweather
    Would need to be over 250m for snow on this run. Time for change (I hope)!
  9. essexweather
    18Z NAE is rather depressing, 0-1cm from 0000 till 1200 on Monday. There are a couple of 2/3 cm South of London though. Looking like the first band of snow dies before it reaches us tbh. Dew-points are sub-zero north of Wattisham, around zero in and around London then above freezing West of Swindon and Basingstoke.
  10. essexweather
    Next update is scheduled for around 1030 Sunday morning. This will be for days 2,3,4. Amber upgrade is under consideration for parts of England and Wales on Monday if criteria is met.
  11. essexweather
    A few comments on the 12Z ECM ensembles for London... Monday likely to be the coldest day with temperatures struggling to reach 1 degree, from then onwards its a very gradual increase each day until the mean reaches around 4.5 degrees on the following Monday (22nd Jan) - then it starts to drop again back to 3 degrees at the end of the run (26th Jan) Apart from a few dry days at the end of the next week, there is some agreement of precipitation each day. Overall, temperatures remaining below average throughout the run. A large split develops around the 19th, then its a fair 50/50 chance of a continuation of the cold or milder weather returning. Apologies if you're further afield then London, but I only pay for the local set of ECM data and ensembles
  12. essexweather
    Evening :-) Awaiting the new NAE, doubt the situation will be any clearer for Monday morning/afternoon. Even this time tomorrow there will still be changes I feel. All part of the fun of model watching. Temporary warm-up next weekend becoming evident on the global models and even the MOGREPS a tad higher on the 12Z. Beyond that a sharp track downwards again. Thankfully, all of us here in the SE retain the coldest air longest and also have a fair chance of snow in the form of showers mid and late week. Interesting times!
  13. essexweather
    Up to T+120 on the UKMO and showing a keen North-Easterly across the UK with high pressure over Scandi - Atlantic looks close though.
  14. essexweather
    If verified, that would be on comparison with the December 2010 snowfield temperatures :o
  15. essexweather
    Much better at T+144 - and thats as far as I'm looking on this run http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png Now lets see what UKMO says at the same time
  16. essexweather
    Widespread snow event on Monday, colder air a little further South and West compared to earlier runs http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn601.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn604.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn661.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn664.png
  17. essexweather
    No changes on the NAE midnight run, if anything patchy rain, sleet or snow today (Saturday) will be South of the Thames. Looking good at T+48 with all the snow ganging up North and West moving towards us New Met regional forecast: Outlook for Monday to Wednesday: More general snow developing Monday, then rather brighter Tuesday and Wednesday with sunny intervals and snow showers, mainly in the east, perhaps locally heavy. Very cold with hard overnight frosts.
  18. essexweather
    GFS up to T+36: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn362.png Colder air a little further West, but no major changes (which is to be expected so early in the run)
  19. essexweather
    Welcome Mayroad snowdrifts and gillskill Half hour to the latest GFS and a large cup of coffee from the vending machine to keep me awake Expecting a few surprises this run (hopefully) with the longevity of the cold late next week and who knows how long the low will linger in the SE on Tuesday morning!
  20. essexweather
    Morning :-) Keep looking at the charts, Monday looks brilliant for widespread snow across this area. Only three more sleeps
  21. essexweather
    Just to clarify a few things as I see my name mentioned several times here this evening regarding MOGREPS and ECM data... I am a director of a weather company and I have a commercial licence for all the major model data. Secondly, as part of emergency management and planning, I engage in occasional conference calls which discuss internal models and 'forecaster thoughts'. Finally, my tweets are aimed at Essex.. so the ensembles/mogreps/assessments may look good/bad for here, but differ somewhat for other parts of the country :-)
  22. essexweather
    T+120 fax is out: http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVO89.TIF That answers a few questions :-)
  23. essexweather
    New T+96 fax chart: http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVM89.TIF Monday could be interesting
  24. essexweather
    To be fair there were 8 members (40%) that had this scenario on the 18Z (including the control) - It's no big surprise and no doubt the next run will show us a colder scenario.
  25. essexweather
    UKMO 00Z ends with low pressure in the North Sea with outbreaks of snow down the East coast at T+144 (Tuesday) Uppers around -6c, and surface temps just above freezing.
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