essexweather

Much improved UKMO and GFS for Sunday... a decent NE'ly flow bringing snow showers well inland. Saturday still a bit of a question mark - looks too mild up above for snow

UKMO T+108 and T+120 shows a strong North-Easterly flow (-9/10c 850s) with snow showers piling into EA and SE on Sunday (Can't post intranet link sorry) For now, possibility of wet snow for places on Saturday, but snow showers seem very possible in favoured spots for Sunday and into Monday morning.

Both 2m and 850 temperatures milder on Saturday this run - would fit in with the new text forecasts issued by the Met Office in the last hour saying an all rain event. By T+102 whole UK within the -5c uppers thankfully.

Ah, I'm one of the lucky ones who gets paid for looking at weather models Minor changes out to T+60, Saturday's low a little further West.

00Z rolling :-) Just occurred to me, this time tomorrow we can see the snow appearing on the short range models (NAE etc)

Very happy with the T+120 FAX chart from Exeter... 528 DAM is not that important in a Easterly flow, but for the whole of the UK to be inside that's a bonus. Complete cross-model confidence tonight for the period 96-120 hours. Happy Days!

New fax chart for Saturday at midday: http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVM89.TIF A lot of snow for some :o

Worth noting on the 00Z GFS that there is a 2-5C difference in 2m temperatures across parts of England and Wales at the end of next week compared to the 18Z from yesterday. Maybe signs that the block will hold on a bit longer

Nice UKMO run. 850s of -5c to -7c across England and Wales, a unstable North-Easterly flow wrapped up with thickness of around 527! Vastly improved GFS run as well. Now we await what the ECM has in store :o

Pleased to see firm agreement on the GFS ensembles of below average temperatures from late next week. ECM shows plenty of opportunity for snow showers from T+156 to the end of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png - Couldn't ask for more this early in the season!

With gusts of 73 miles per hour already reported on the South coast, this could well be a sting jet as some have mentioned.

Two thunderstorms passing through earlier this afternoon. Total rainfall today 7.8mm/

Evening, Good to see the rain band intensifying off the SE and EA coast, but really is struggling to make landfall at the moment. As reported by others, it's common that the rainfall on the leading edge (as seen over Suffolk) is not actually reaching the ground. This is not a 'non-event' yet as nothing was meant to happen until after midnight

Both Writtle College and Andrewsfield near Braintree (Official MO and WMO stations) are below -10C now. A chilly -9C here in the Essex hills currently

Neil, that's a bit harsh

I work for a private forecasting company and in charge of gritting for a number of councils so lucky enough to be kept in the loop when it comes with data and discussions. Personally, I wouldn't put all my confidence on one model and one set of ensembles - but the MO havn't put a foot wrong yet this winter.

Yes, on the earlier conference call they totally dismissed the American model (GFS) and stuck with their own model out to T+120 and then used the ECM out to day 10 with some confidence. It was noted that the colder air hangs on longest in the SE with a increased snow risk around days 5 and 6.

Quick post before leaving the office, and not good news. The Met Office are relying heavily on their 'MOGREPS' and own ensemble data for this weekend's breakdown. Looking at the most recent postage-stamps there is VERY high confidence of a quick breakdown with more than 70% showing the cold leaving the East coast by Sunday. 20% keep a anti-cyclonic Easterly and the other 10% mixed. The MOGREPS has performed very well in these situations since inception in 2006 and can see why Exeter are happy with tonights FAX charts and new 7-15 day text outlook. We will most likely see further downgrades tomorrow in the new issue around 11.30Z. Anything can happen beyond T+120 and we will most likely see the continental feed return in 10-15 days time. However, time is running out for this winter. Keep positive, it could be all change when the 00Z runs and ensembles arrive.

Snowing slightly here in the Essex hills

Dry with clear skies. -3.1 deg. C

http://www.weatherlab.co.uk/devon_historical_weather_data.html Plenty of stations round Devon. Simply complete the request form and data is sent within hours

Still sub-zero here with freezing fog :o Radar indicates rain not far away - could be interesting in a few hours

From 1st January: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2010/12/13/co-operative-signs-itv-weather-sponsorship-deal-115875-22779931/