essexweather

Unlike last time we spoke on here, we live in the same town! If only we could get that NE'ly or E'ly that I've read about in books that always delivers the snow here :o

Evening all, glad to be back posting after two winter's of discontent! So not the snowy outlook that we all want, but we are exactly half-way through the meteorological winter and all the play for in the second half. Not liking the TV forecasts for the weekend that show a big 7C over London, nearer average rather than cold!

New fax charts: T+96: http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVM89.TIF T+120: http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVO89.TIF

The problem is people are over analyzing each model run. With two (in some cases four) model runs a day and members interpreting things differently, no wonder this place is in confusion this evening. This morning, 00Z MOGREPS had 60/65% support for the cold to hang on until next weekend - hence the public output from Exeter of the cold persisting into the medium range period. Now, based on the 12Z run of the same model+ensembles, we are around 45/50%. There are sig. differences in each of the models ensemble suites from T+72hr, so that is where we should be looking up to on the global models for now. Until Alex has undergone extratropical transition, the models will continue to bounce around with different ideas. Let's see what the midnight runs bring :-)

Here are the extended 15-day ECM ensembles from the 12Z. Can't really argue with the trend, definitely going mild next week:

12Z ECM ensembles are out: http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim Still the majority favour a warm-up at the surface in a weeks time.

Very usual, but Subtropical Storm Alex has formed today. The model track from the National Hurricane Center shows our block making its presence felt:

Haven't seen these posted in a while. Quite rare to have extensive blue down the spine of the country.

Today's 12Z ECM ensemble for London. Massive outlier, the cold is going to put up a strong fight next week! Keep the faith

Some more information starting to come out now in the media, whether it's true or not: Met Office 'lost BBC contract over dumbing down rows and weather app' I've also spoken to a few people today and can confirm some good news about the chance of some presenters hanging on: http://essexweather.weebly.com/blog/met-office-lose-bbc-contract

Morning! Should be a interesting night ahead, lets get temperatures as high as possible today to help break some of the cap. Here are the latest thoughts from this end for Essex / SE etc: http://essexweather.weebly.com/blog/-possible-thunderstorms-overnight

I think this is going to be the problem for Essex and Kent... no CAPE currently: Certainty some welcome rainfall for these parts

Rain has arrived here, garden needs a good soaking after recent weeks of dryish weather

Size of the snowflakes are staggering, massive clumps and accumulating fast

You are on the South-Western tip of the precip band so unless you get any heavier outbreaks is likely to fall as rain.

Everything going white here in Chelmsford, temperature falling away slowly. Good couple of hour snow here looking at the latest radar loop

Heavy snow here now in mid-Essex.

Current scene in Harlow, Essex:

Well things have progressed more or less than expected. Slightly concerned for those in the SW of our region with higher temps and dew points in the mix, but anyone on the Northern and Eastern edge of the low should do well. Looking good for Northern parts of Essex and into Suffolk from the first cluster of snow now arriving

Agree on the timing, but feel the low could drift further South taking any snowfall risk to Kent and Sussex. As Paul has just said in regards to intensity, this could be another disappointment or a major event locally. Huge model variation remains in the T+9 to T+15 timeframe and will have to keep an eye on surface observations and radar overnight.

Good evening Firstly, the Met Office are calling it a 'polar low type feature' on latest guidance statement. The 12Z ECM run is most favoured track with the exit point close to Brighton at 975mb (06Z) on Friday. The expectation is the heaviest of the precip (mostly snow) will be on the Northern edge... so Kent, Surrey and the Southern parts of East Anglia. There is a error margin of around 50-70 miles and amounts of snowfall are progged to be 1-2CM. Current weather warnings issued at 1043Z are sufficient for the time being, with a reassessment around 9.30pm tonight when the new models runs and guidance are available. A nowcasting event for sure and a late night if you are wanting to see this one through

Rather windy this evening, recent gust of 41mph. Horribly mild as well at 10.3C

Some flakes now visible in the wind. As above, radar is of interest for SE

It's a very weak line of precip and the one behind looks like it is fading. Glad you got some flakes in the end.

Stansted Airport now reporting rain and snow. John, might we worth looking outside in Waltham Abbey for some flakes?