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essexweather

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  1. essexweather
    Tonight will be a nowcast situation for sure, but the latest run of the UKV has pepped up the back edge of the snow-band across London, Kent and Essex. Heaviest looks likely between 21Z and 00Z with the last clearing the extreme east of Kent around 01Z. Thursday is complicated, too complicated to look into until a few more model runs are out! Good luck tonight if you're hoping for snow
  2. essexweather
    Some nice looking charts again this morning. Fits in nicely with the 15-30 day UKMO forecast from yesterday. ECM starting to roll...
  3. essexweather
    Only a trace here and there, South of London, Hertfordshire and 1-2CM over the Midlands. Timing is great with most of it during the early hours. Daytime temperatures from all of the models are not great, 3-4C for most. Charts are eye-candy for sure but at ground level it's hard to get excited just yet.
  4. essexweather
    Better UKMO run, some back-edge snow over Central Southern England Monday night/Tuesday first run to show this. Uppers down to -7C over East Anglia. After the craziness of the 18Z GFS, the latest GFS run is fine with snow for many middle of next week. All eyes on the ECM
  5. essexweather
    Increased confidence from the CF of some sleet and wet snow across parts of the region Friday night and early Saturday, mostly higher ground but to low levels in heavier bursts. No accumulations expected, but North Downs wouldn't be out the question for a dusting. A few of the London airport TAFs have sleet midnight to 07Z Saturday.
  6. essexweather
    Can't access from home Toggling the run through 120-132-144hr its obvious the high is edging further in from the Atlantic which is not good. If the ECM delivers shortly, you'd expect the 12Z UKMO to push everything further West. Baby steps!
  7. essexweather
    Big improvement from the UKMO this morning, decent snow event moving South-Eastwards out of Scotland late weekend. This was all rain on yesterdays 12Z over lower ground in the South. 850s are generally -5 to -7c across the East and Midlands this run in the latter stages
  8. essexweather
    Morning all Hopefully a day of stability and/or upgrades ahead starting with the 00Z runs. Fingers crossed the UKMO edges closer towards the Euro today, as that's the only model worrying me at present. GFS underway:
  9. essexweather
    Great output this morning from GFS, UKMO and ECM. This makes two runs in a row with decent cross-model agreement. One thing to remember, we are no longer at day 10 with the cold charts, they are in the short-range now! Will be exciting when we get to the weekend to start picking out the features that will bring the snow from the middle of next week
  10. essexweather
    Bit of a surprise how poor the output is for the medium term on the 00Z GFS and UKMO Potential for sleet and snow for some, but the slushy kind and gone by lunchtime sort. On to the ECM...
  11. essexweather
    Differences between UKMO and GFS significant once more on the 00Z runs. Hopefully the ECM doesn't start pulling towards GFS. Weds, Thurs, Fri should bring plenty of snow showers to low-levels across parts of the UK either way, so lots to look forward to and this is before the main event later in the month.
  12. essexweather
    Everything has been pushed back a week but the signals are still there, albeit weaker than before. Once the bank holiday is out the way, I'm sure the Met Office will start to emphasise (via their press office) that the SSW is no guarantee of severe cold and a multitude of outcomes remain on the table. There is now very high confidence that apart from a brief colder snap this coming week, nothing wintry for the large majority of UK is expected out to the 15th January. This is clear from tonights EC ensembles, a staggering 90% keep 2m temperatures at or above average (7-9C) during days 10-14. The last 15 days of January and the whole of February could still deliver the goods.
  13. essexweather
    Temperature fell to 0.7C around 10PM, now up to 4.9C. Avoiding the fog here tonight, but no doubt will return tomorrow night with lighter winds.
  14. essexweather
    8C at 3AM never good but still hopeful temperatures will trend down by Christmas. Really dislike mild Christmases
  15. essexweather
    Seen a few flashes way to my South over the past hour. Nothing heard though :o
  16. essexweather
    Just come back from the town square, surprised how much has accumulated so far. Looking like another 6-9 hours of light to moderate snow
  17. essexweather
    Very quiet this morning Both UKMO and GFS have the low further West on the 00Z runs. Slightly colder flow is maintained across much of the UK but for most of us we are stuck in no man's land. Could be worse, although not what most of us want to see. GFS: UKMO:
  18. essexweather
    There will still be a band of snow pushing North through our area but noting to the extent of previous output. You're talking 2-5CM if that instead now. If you've not seen the new 00Z UKMO and GFS, the low is further away than before. We do keep a colder flow with negative 850s but still too mild for my liking and temperatures back to 5C.
  19. essexweather
    Have just come off the phone with the chief in Exeter and new warnings will be issued within the hour regarding Thursday/Friday. It is not good news if you're looking for a major snow event here in East Anglia. They are going with a SW event mainly and indications are it won't get this far East now. Short-term. The change of wind direction (NE to ENE or E) will now occur early afternoon which sadly is when the showers will start to loose their kick. However, there will be widespread shower activity over much of Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk this morning. There is a strong signal for showers on Wednesday in Norfolk and Suffolk, less so in Essex. Cheif was happy with current warnings in place for London, South-East and East Anglia so no change expected here
  20. essexweather
    Have just come off the phone with the chief in Exeter and new warnings will be issued within the hour regarding Thursday/Friday. It is not good news if you're looking for a major snow event here in the South-East. They are going with a SW event mainly and indications are it won't get this far East now. Short-term. The change of wind direction (NE to ENE or E) will now occur early afternoon which sadly is when the showers will start to loose their kick. However, there will be widespread shower activity over the London this morning. Cheif was happy with current warnings in place for London, South-East and East Anglia so no change expected here.
  21. essexweather
    Time for bed, got to be up by 7.30am for a ton of media interviews Enjoy tonight those staying up, but tomorrow night is much more promising
  22. essexweather
    Few flakes spotted here
  23. essexweather
    The one outside my house says on, the only one in my road
  24. essexweather
    Title of this thread maybe wrong... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_counties very confusing
  25. essexweather
    Royal Blue according to my colleague
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