essexweather

The latest run of the UKV is very uninspiring out until 9AM on Tuesday. Yes there are snow showers around but no streamers or banding going on. I think this is the first time I have seen the new 'powder snow' colouring being shown

While it's too early to say the cold is winning this battle... wait for the ensembles... no where in the UK ends up with postive 850s on the operational out to T+180 which is a big difference from the 18Z from yesterday evening. Going to be a interesting couple of days to see how this pans out. Something doesn't sit right with me when you flick between T+72hr and T+144hr - the cold pool just disappears which isn't normal in a Easterly scenario. Blocking normally puts up a bigger fight than this.

The low slightly further South and West on the 00Z at the T+144. Brighton for example has a air temperature 5C lower on this run than the previous for Friday evening at 6PM. Hopefully the ECM brings the low a touch further South - a trend which I believe will continue over the next few days keeping a large proportion of the UK in the colder uppers. EDIT: Great UKMO for the short range period, higher snowfall totals for the East and South-East.

No suprises with the 00Z ECM this morning. Backs up the last MOGREPS run with the cold affecting majority of NW Europe inc. UK through to second week of March. Solid support as per last half dozen runs. Any milder interlude in the South would only be temporary with the colder uppers quickly returning post-low.

Latest thoughts from us: https://essexweather.org.uk/severe-winter-weather/ Bit more on Friday... The 30% risk from the Met Office guidance statement (02Z) relates to the low moving far enough North to affect a significant part of England and Wales. There is obviously a slightly higher risk (currently) for Southern parts of England which of course includes Kent, London etc. The most likely scenario based on CF is the low to run either along Northern France or perhaps as far North as the English Channel. Remember, we are talking about a low which is nearly a week away! Monday Night, Tuesday and even Wednesday is looking fantastic for our region. Even the 00Z GFS has near continuous snow over South Essex and Kent during this time. UKMO-GM shows a streamer from Clacton to East London with spot totals of 11CM at Gravesend, 13CM Isle of Sheppy. Have a great weekend, and get the sledge ready for Tuesday

What the hell have they done to BBC Weather these days. Just dreadful. National forecast at 6.27pm said 'Wintry showers next week' and no mention of the weather warnings in place. Has the new provider told presenters to dumb down forecasts? No wonder why so many forecasters are jumping ship back to the Met Office.

Excellent output so far this morning. We are starting to see charts that show the 'very cold' locked in which is much like what the Met Office have been saying for the past week or so on 15-30 days forecast. All good signs and confidence increasing this not just a few days but weeks worth of prolonged cold. Lets see what the ECM has in 90 minutes

Good to see you here Darren Anyone waking up for a quick peek of the models, everything still on course for Sunday Night/Monday in terms of the real cold air. Positioning of the high will differ run to run until the weekend so there is no need to panic if it's too far North or South. No matter where you are in the UK, you are very likely to get snow at some point looking at the 00Z GFS. Fantastic UKMO, nice to finally see sub -10 uppers across the UK within the more reliable time-frame and the first of the snow showers heading towards Eastern coasts

Good evening Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently) MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout the week of a Easterly flow setting in, was a brief wobble over the last couple of days to a more South-Easterly flow but now back to a direct Easterly from around 22nd February (20-30% chance of a day or two earlier) ECM: Very high probability of much of Europe heading into the freezer next week (90% prob of this) but a couple of shortwaves keep developing from Denmark to Norway next week which either delays the cold further from reaching our shores or in some cases prevents the cold getting further than BeNeLux. Forecaster guideance of 17Z today was 70% chance of the Easterly progressing far enough to affect England. More than a few wobbles this week so there is still no guarantee we will get a bit of the cherry. The main story from Exeter is, that *if* we do get in on the action next week, this will be a prolonged event lasting well into March with significant impacts on this country. And just for us regional folk, here are todays 12Z ECM ensembles for Essex (but similar for anywhere in SE/EA to be honest) ----------- 2m temperaure 850 temperature Snow depth (not really worth taking notice of at this stage) ----------- Sunday will be another wobble day with the models but you will likely see cross-model agreement start from late Monday and into Tuesday. Have a great weekend and fingers crossed for next week. Europe really is on the verge of something very special.

Devastating news this morning that storm-chaser Joel Taylor has died at the age of 38. Many of us here and in the wider community knew of him either through meeting him during chase season or watching his hugely popular shows on Discovery Channel. https://heavy.com/news/2018/01/joel-taylor-dead-storm-chaser-cause-of-death-how-did-die/ RIP Joel

Early days, but starting to see temperatures drop across Essex after peaking around 06:15

18Z UKMO actually shows snow falling into North Kent. While overall totals are less on this run, more in our region should see snow falling at some point

Here is the latest from the high-res UKMO run... Modified CF consensus maybe 25-50 miles further South than shown where snow accumulates. A very short period of sleet/wet snow likely from North London to Clacton as well, mostly rain throughout to all areas South. Conference call ongoing, Monday discussions will be next

Upgrades, downgrades when will it end Certainly a shift in the right direction this morning from the GFS and UKMO, getting the colder air as far South and West is important. We worry about T+144 at a later date once (or if) the cold gets established. Awaiting the ECM

Evening guys, quick post as the girlfriend is dragging me food shopping Had a good look through the 12Z ECM and latest run of UKMO UKV for tonight and it does indeed show imports reaching the South-East of England from 22Z onwards. ECM (image below) shows a likely MCS arriving over the home counties around midnight whereas the UKMO shows the rain hitting us but the heaviest precip with thundery activity going up the Dover Straights. Going to be a long night if you're staying up. All eyes to the radar and lightning maps Edit: Plenty of cape around too according to ECM

Dutch radar is very interesting :o Temperatures have dropped back to 1C as a moderate snow shower just passed through.

Getting a bit breezy here now but nothing out the ordinary for the time of year. Don't understand why warnings are issued

I've had a good look through the midnight runs and my latest thoughts for today and tomorrow's snow events are here: http://essexweather.weebly.com/blog/severe-weather-and-coastal-flooding It seems the intensity of the snow is less on the past two runs, hence the Amber warning is yet to materialise from Exeter. The next assessment will be 10.30am and it will be at that point the existing warnings are updated. It's then or never for the Amber upgrade for parts of London / Home Counties. The risk of heavy (disruptive) snow remains 60% for higher ground, less so at lower levels according to the latest guidance statement from 3AM. The chance of an all rain event does remain - heartbreaking as it would be - but something we all have to remember in such a marginal situation. Going to be a busy day on this thread and I wish everyone the best of luck. It's been so many years since we've had such a decent opportunity for snow!

Morning all, it's been a while Interesting 36 hours ahead with many of us seeing at least something snow-wise!

Very warm tonight, still 19C @ 01:40 here :o

Luton Airport (160m) reporting rain on latest (20:50) METAR For those further East... the Met Office have included showers of rain and snow to TAFs as far East as Southend Airport now.

This should give a good representation of where we are around 02:00 Sunday, from latest UKV run. Expected error margin of Eastern extent is considered 15-20 miles.

20:00 update from Exeter suggests the extent of the precip from the weakening warm front will be Clacton. So, would expect anywhere South and West of there to see at least a few flakes. Remember, just because you are outside the Met Office warning, doesn't mean you won't see snow. The yellow warning area was highlighted by the chief forecasters for disruption. In regards to Monday, they don't expect any rain/sleet/snow to progress much further Eastwards then the Isle of Wight initially.

Last post before I head home, 18Z high-res from Exeter increases risk of some snow for Western parts of our region Sunday morning: There is still great uncertainty on the track of this area of sleet and snow with the possibility it may not even exist on subsequent runs.

With all the midday data and ensembles in now... we may miss out on the first band of snow next week (Monday/Tues) but likely catch a heavier band, which should reach East Anglia and the South East on Wednesday. MOGREPS: Only 30% of members take the first band of rain/sleet/snow EAST of the MERIDIAN by 00Z Tuesday (So most likely we stay dry and cold in this region) A higher percentage (65-70%) bring heavy, disruptive snowfalll eastwards on Wednesday and into Thursday - this then grinds to a halt over East Coast and moves back South-Westwards (yes, South-Westwards) and fizzles out. Then next weekend, another snowfest before the high gets pushed away into Eastern Europe I'll try and pop in again tomorrow night to give a update, but not on-duty so can't access all the models from home.