New analysis frm UKMO Ch Forecaster keeps bias of main snow threat W Mids, E Wales into W Country, esp Glos, Wilts, Bristol, B&NES, N/NE Som
From Fergie on twitter
have the mods opened another thread yet. Significant snow risk etc. As does and is beginnning to look like some places will manage another 3 inches or so.
NAE has been an improving picture on every run for the Midlands as a whole rather than just the East. More intense prec and more accum. no doubt will become nowcadt soon. could be even better than that. fings xrossed.
NAE uogrades for the Mids. The band comes into wales 6 hours later than previously progged @ midday and leaves the Mids more or less with hardly any rain behind @ 6am. Snowcover sticks out. Interesting. a 6 hour diff is huge on HI RES models.
Edit: wales 6pm instead of midday as previously shown.
Excellent NAE for the west. a 50 mile ish shift west.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201202021800&VAR=prty&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
Interesting Tweet.
@fergieweather @liamdutton - 8KM model from Metra have Leeds to Birmingham & surrounding counties at greatest risk at the mo with >10cm poss
even then there is potential in the t240. thats too far to worry about. Ecm and UKMet same boat now. so realistically the GFS SHOULD start backtracking thru the sat runs. lets see what happens today?
GFS ENS improved. The OP is quite clearly one of the very few Mild outliers. interestingly a few extras near -5s and also the mean drops more than its 18z a forward trend from the GFS....
edit: london ensembles particularly
ECM http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=48&mode=1&map=0&archive=0
ECM NOW ROLLING, a very important one in years. a good day or bad. fingers and everything else xrossed!!!
dont worry im wid u today....a special mod watch day today if the ECM Persists. but as the UKMO has now 80% ish agreed to the ECM banter aswell as other lesser models, i cannot see the ECM backtracking now...probably an adjustment here and there and maybe watered down a bit more...
yes excellent looking UKMO. backing ECM. now then, the GFS 00z run has to be a mild outlier. No ens support in respect to earlier runs. so is that now ECM, NOGAPS, GEM, JMA, UKMO showing similar charts from the t144+ timeframe...
after reading the above posts it seems as though GEM, NOGAPS, JMA all trending tiwards the ECM. and even the GFS needle pickingly tried. ECM has only increased the potential throughout the run aswell. MEGA 18z on the cards me think. The Faxes later also.
My, with all the pressure from other models ECM said bring it on! what a stonker from 168 till then end.....and beyond potentially aswell. So after seeing this id expect GFS make some in roads on the 18z....pub run that can create a fiasco this evening....fingers crossed....
what is agreeable at the moment is that the ECM ens are totally against the GFS OP and the GFS ens are against the ECM OP. The other Mods are a mere watch and wait in this standoff. The mother of all battles in progress. as it stands this winter 1-0 to the GFS, can the ECM find an equaliser?
im not very good with understanding the FAX charts. is the t120 in favour of ECM OR GFS. lookong at it looks like support for the ECM to where that HP is, but the fax does show a LP west of ireland, which ECM or GFS dont show. can a knowledgeable one help in explaining the FAX?