Brum Watcher

I agree. important next few runs. I am pretty sure we will get a bit more agreement. 12z is a bit more jet biased. so not expecting GFS to change much in favour of cold but possibly more milder interludes and the occ pm air. ECM VS GFS Friday the 13th special. A pub run SCARE maybe later...

sorry for setting in confusion on my part. the UKMO run shows at t120 more in favour of the GFS run at t120. The Meto update came to my knowledge after my comment. ECM ensembles do seem in favour of the OP. This is what makes it a solid output. GFS changes in the last week have been astonishing, not very reliable. (besides the last few runs) but UKMO t120 is a plus for GFS at this stage, and meto update is a plus for ECM. So which run fails, is the big question. no one can be sure, but in all I have witnessed ECM backtrack more than the GFS this winter, hence my bias is towards the GFS in this moment in time.

looking at the ECM ensembles, Plenty of support for the Op. all three, Control/OP/mean tightly joined together till the end. Ukmo have tilted towards the GFS. im stuck in thinking here... looks like a second backtrack for the ECM this winter maybe...a winter to forget maybe..

GFS possibly trending towards the ECM around 240 252. last few show the standard as u were. strong PV, HP to the SW. and I Quote. The first time this winter I have seen a -10 all through the heart of the Country to London. b4 u all start, i know fi and this and that. the trend and persistency is the main focus now. VERY IMP ECM TODAY aswell as ensembles.

somethings happening at t192 potentiallyyyy oooohhh god GFS trying to take the ECM TO THE CLEANERS. t252. in a positive way.

can someone post this ensembles link please...

so The ECM takes the first hit from NOGAPS.

amazing how every 6 hours later a run can be so far apart even at t96. so obviously what u see now u will not see on the 18z run. this is not a trend at all towards mild yet. yesterday Ecm backed by GFS today GFS backed by METO. and IF the Ecm backs up aswell, then maybe bye bye Jan....

12z drops back into the yellows. devastating run, but it is only just a run. once again important ens and ecm coming up. gfs seems to be an outlier here in respect to the 06z ensembles.

the block breaks at t138 here comes the hp from the SW.

GFS 00z changes, the most significant one for me was them height rises towards the NE at t150 onwards till the far reaches. potential easterly again. -5 uppers from the west and east interlinking. plenty of snow chances. Short term changes minor. final answer moat positivity again is in FI. so still no clear picture. ECM will be important today aswell as ensembles.

Gfs fi from 264 till the end, most of UK is under -5 uppers on a W N/W airflow. fi of course. thats as exciting it gets on the GFS, but as always expecting changes...

and the fairy tale comes to an end. GFS trended towards the ECM not even a sniff of an Easterly on the entire run now. that trigger low ends up towards scand instead of france. what a mega shift in output!! well done ECM and the eurpoean model wins over the Americans. 1-1 now for this winter so far and both against the coldies....

GFS the cold outlier i take it according to rest of the ensembles. more and more likely for it to revert on the 18z back to ECM setup...

all eyes on a massive ECM this evening....will it or wont it back up the GFS....tick tock tick tock

taking the last few weeks gfs model unreliability into consideration. i believe it will be a bad 12z output for coldies.

interesting anomaly chart by JB on his twitter. http://t.co/RUPfFviG

GFS 00z the most yellow run i have seen so far this winter, totally knocking the 18z ensembles on the head all the way till the end...whats happening???

well not many others supporting...

another failed GFS run in fi, but sure changes are due somewhere down the line..time to sit out the yellows for now!!

18z pushes a HP ridge towards western greenland and Towards NE canada. can it not form a blocking down the line?

in lala land FI the PV is at a strongest I have seen this winter so far above greenland. not very encouraging, but lala at the moment.

agree with above comment. looks as though a new HP is about to take over from the SW with the Jet in support, this is where it goes pear shaped!!! and thats what happens after a brief northerly. back to similar setup!!!

12z GFS t123 showing decent changes...Weaker PV and the low much further SE near NE America than previous runs, where is this run going?