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Brum Watcher

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Everything posted by Brum Watcher

  1. Brum Watcher
    it has pumped up on the last two model runs, further north low pressure and pulling temps down quicker aswell. reports coming in now from south of the region.... 22.40 now, so good signs of things to come for some parts of midlands at least.
  2. Brum Watcher
    At 00z....(GFS model) Dew points 0c, Temps 1c, 850's -4. Thats GFS though. Putting it almost the right side of marginal.
  3. Brum Watcher
    As you can see where the low is now and where it should be according to GFS at 12z. I cant see it being there in time of GFS
  4. Brum Watcher
    its actually much slower if u look at the gfs for the time. just more prec as it has moved slightly further north
  5. Brum Watcher
    NAE makes the East Mids smile and it is looking like the least chanced area is going to benefit the most. low is slower moving according to GFS it would have to be over southampton by 12z but the eye is over cornwall at the moment. The precipitation is ahead of time? i dont know why?
  6. Brum Watcher
    NAE much better midlands on the 18z........
  7. Brum Watcher
    the comes onto screen, it does however look slightly more north than the GFS at this time. http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/pression.php
  8. Brum Watcher
    Metoffice update today is interseting viewing with the track of the low in the channel they are still saying maybe upto humberside.......hummmm http://www.metoffice...try-end-to-week and last updated today as you can see the track of the low he is explaining.
  9. Brum Watcher
    bbc mids 5pm showed more whiter graphics compared to the rest of the day for the mids, is this because of GFS trending north on the last three runs???
  10. Brum Watcher
    The last three GFS runs have been pushing the low north by 20 - 30 miles....00z, 06z, 12z....if the trend continues onto the 18z then majority of the midlands will see what was being shown yesterday.
  11. Brum Watcher
    12z nae and gfs will be the last string north midlands is holding onto, then the (hope) radar after 9pm.
  12. Brum Watcher
    seems the bbc/meto are on the side of NAE precipitation charts since yesterday, what time does NAE update?
  13. Brum Watcher
    to be honest midlanders, it is all over. heavy snow reduced to only maybe sleet, warnings gone off, low moving south, precipitation intensity dropping, all pointing towards a negative pattern, end hopes now, as expectations will only fail.
  14. Brum Watcher
    where can i see this NMM chart, any link please.
  15. Brum Watcher
    why had no one commented on the latest 06z, it is showing the low further north by around 50ish miles compared to the 18z and 00z, possible trend in the next few runs aswell. sat imagery shows the low to be developing as the GFS pointed out 2 days ago...snow risk increases on the GFS chart significantly aswell.
  16. Brum Watcher
    3-5 inches of snow for the whole of the midlands, blizzard conditions, school closures.....or is this a ramp rather than a prediction....
  17. Brum Watcher
    I reckon the 12z will be the most important one today for all of us, humm including the media forecasters, they seem a bit lost today. you gotta feel for them for the next upto 24 hours or so...
  18. Brum Watcher
    lol, first begging GFS to jump onto the NAE boat, now the NAE boat sinks, seems like NAE is struggling now and behind a run compared to other models. oh yeh just sseen the GFS track on the 06z and it has tracked further north now, a trend hopefully for the next few runs...and also the satellite imagery supports this, as it seems like the low is building further north as originally shoen by GFS two days ago.....oooofff model watching....
  19. Brum Watcher
    GFS, NAE and METO/FAX all on the same output more or less now... certainty begins..and to be honest couldve been worse considering how the models had been behaving...
  20. Brum Watcher
    see above your original post!! 14 mm in snow equals how many cm's??
  21. Brum Watcher
    someone advise me with the fax charts that just come out, it shows the low tracking south coast, and enclosed with a front to the north say central mids....someone advise please!!! all i see is the same as bbc and meto scenario 1 from 24 hours ago and the gfs has fallen into line with meto and nae... so changes of gfs according to meto plot.
  22. Brum Watcher
    can someone tell me the height of birmingham on average?
  23. Brum Watcher
    13.30 Beeb forecast, slap, bang and wallop for the midlands, a dartboarder for the Midlands....considering how poor the models haves been this is the best possible scenario for the Mids so far. ( fingers crossed )
  24. Brum Watcher
    AMAZING NAE AT +48hrs http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201112140600&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
  25. Brum Watcher
    NAE purrfect for the Snow STARVED Midlands!!!! Unbelievable really!! have doubts if it will happen though!!! http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201112140600&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
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