[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

has anything been predicted for the essex area or will we miss it all?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

9 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

The problem is is these deep areas of low pressure in the US unjecting energy into the jet stream and therefore pushing away a blocking high over Scandinavia which was originally going to be building by the middle of this week but because of that storm from the US it has complicated things a lot!

 

Im sure we can find a way to blame trump for it!.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

The ECM 46 day model isn’t showing HLB until the week of the 28th of January.

To be fair i thought the main chances of wintery weather was going to start early feb and anything before then was a bonus.

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

Not quite sure what to do with myself as I wait for the next UKMO run... Nervous times ahead 

you wait.. the ecm will switch back to the colder outlook while the ukmo switchs to less cold again.

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i think as Steve posted earlier, the 12zs will be fascinating viewing..

Such a shame the EC did a u-turn after viewing the 12z UKMO/GFS yesterday..

It might u-turn again this evening..

Day 10 mean still looks cold with the euro low in place to our SE..

I think it will be sunday morning it will turn around... just a hunch.

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

I've seen this drama happen a few times with the models flip flopping just before a cold spell and usually over a weekend.  This drama wont stop until late sunday and i bet things will be much better for coldies then... Try not to panic!

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Yes unfortunately the Ecm op and its ensemble suite has mixed out the Arctic high joining the high pressure Azores that lobe pulling Sw stopping a pressure join ...jet flattening the pattern to some degree...Seeing Ecm is the highest verification model according to the stats nerves will be creeping in. However I'm still confident of heavy snow events from battleground scenarios....I want snow!

I'd be more worried if the ukmo changes.  ive noticed in the past that on the run up to a good cold spell the models flip and change right upto the last minute... for some reason it was at the start of and during weekend when it happens the most... just my opinion.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

better than 'that' EC', I reckon on 5 Dec '12

Now you've done it!! you had to mention " That ECM" .. you've damned this entire cold spell!

 

 

[Model banter returns]

i really don't understand what we have done wrong thats made it extremely difficult to get a good wintery outbreak... we have a really good ssw event yet somehow a poxy HP to the southwest of us just wants to hang around and spoil the fun so places like Turkey can get a pasting.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Cheer up folks as we all know this is a rapidly evolving situation and the models will playout all the possible outcomes and some runs will be better for cold than others.  it doesn't mean the last runs are going to happen and the next set will show a different outcome.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

4 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Just look at the total length of, do I say block.

That's the dogs danglies of a chart.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Blimey you'd think winter was over going by some posts this morning.  Remember folks until the models get a grip of this potential SSW event then take all outputs with a large bucket of salt.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Anyone know where Mr murr is? I enjoy reading his take on things and he's been very quiet recently.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

that is forecast to hit us in Essex ;-)

I can't see anywhere that shows it :-(

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

7 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

The updated fax show quite well by 1800 the front covering a wider area spreading east towards I strongly think this is gonna be an historic event with many places including parts of London seeing 20cm + time will tell but I expect the forecasts to change as day goes.

Please please drift more NE and hit us in Essex!

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

Well I've woken up to exactly... nothing as I thought and by the sounds of a post above then I'll be getting nothing this Friday either.

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

You can't make it up..  some how missed both showers. 

 

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

well no point doing a night lamp post watch in braintree.  Perhaps theres a chance at the end of the week.

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

6 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Norwich based forecasters Weatherquest are providing some really good charts and explanations during this cold spell. Here's another explaining why places nearer the coast are doing better for snow this evening....

Link https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/968218129049489408

Well that pretty much means I'll be getting nothing tonight.

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

nothing here in braintree but the occasional flake in the wind.. getting a little disappointed.

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

1 minute ago, Andy H said:

We are back! How am I meant to know what’s going on outside without NW??

Well you could just pop outside for a moment to see ?

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

Anybody got a break down of what we can roughly expect for us living in the essex/Suffolk area next week.  Just need some info for work.

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

1 minute ago, cold snap said:

So GFS 18z wants to put us into a truly severe cold period with many feet of snow for some.

This is not a over hype .this is what it's shows.

Craziest cold run I've ever seen but most probably a outlier.

Yes and hopefully a mild outlier! 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

well it hasn't downgraded like normal and if anything it's upgraded.  The last time this happened with the models was 2010.  I just hope we get more of the white stuff this time round.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

So can we start getting more excited yet or should we wait until tomorrow night!