smith25
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Posts posted by smith25
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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
ECM gets the cold to us 2 days later than every other model -
Wasn't that what the post from the guy in regional forums said where some model will show it 2 days earlier than others and there' a chance either setups could happen
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1 minute ago, danm said:
GFS at 144hrs has -12c 850's flooding into southern England:
isn' the -16 air touching Kent?
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1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:
The amount of people who ignored the warnings from @CreweCold and @The Eagle about the energy in the jets northern arm just because it was a possible more negative outcome is unbelievable. Yes, it hadn’t happened yet, but it is now a real possibility! The blinkers on some here is unbelievable!
It hasn' happened yet and it's no more likely than any of the other solutions. It may even change by tonight.
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still snowing in braintree.
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snowing and settling in braintree essex
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moderate to heavy snow in witham essex and starting to settle on cars etc
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I'm not going to pretend I'm an expert but I have been a member for well over 10 years and have seen plenty of model drama at times. The last few times I've seen output this confusing was when what I would class as special cold events was occurring. Don't panic over any perceived down grades this morning as its just the models trying to get to grips with the difficult synoptics and will play out various scenarios until they agree on a result. I would recommend sticking to the fax charts and now casting until after the weekend!.
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3 minutes ago, bobbydog said:
here's a thought- we could be looking at the first countrywide extended snowy cold spell for 5 years, now being introduced to us by charts like this-
but this hasn't come about from an SSW, it may be due to the vortex being battered by minor warmings such as this-
we have read forecasts which have been geared towards an SSW happening towards the end of january. Glacier Points 'Torpedo' forecast regarding the MJO is not due to materialise for a couple of weeks yet. suddenly, and it is sudden, as i've been watching the strat charts, this pops up-
could it possibly be that this potentially 'epic' cold spell we have just within reach could actually be just the start of something even bigger and better?
maybe.... we'll see.....
I was thinking about the same thing... If it pans out then we could be looking at a true classic cold spell. Imagine the charts that could crop up if this was only the start. Kind of scary actually!
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Just had some sleet where I am. Might be a promising sign.
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November started off exceptionally mild
Then it got wet and stormy
That was 1946 I was referring to.
Just saying... <fingers crossed>
That's more like it! A good old winter ramp.
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What's going on thus year????... We have a cold shot in about 3 more days but hardly anyone's talking about it. Where is everybody!.
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And teits,we can't forget teits lol
Yep mustn't forget teits!
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Well its getting to the best time of the year folks!. Has the Murr man woken from the summer hibernation yet?. All I need now is extra supplies of coffee for the late nights and the "happy pills" ready for the last minute model wobbles.
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Just had a light snow shower here which gave a brief dusting. So gutted were not getting a meaningful easterly as we haven't had a decent covering in years.
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Just wondering if ian f has posted recently in the model thread??? We could do with his insight.
Our bloody lamposts go out at midnight
Yes its a bloody nuisance and really unsafe.
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Snowing in Braintree Essex.
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I'm jelous.. Nothing showing for my area.
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Brief heavyish snow shower in Braintree essex.
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Im smelling a round of major downgrades on the models tonight.....Samaritans might need extra staff tonight.
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t72 fax shows how things can change in 12 hours when fast forming depressions are involved
Whats changed????
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What is it with the model forum. You just have to laugh sometimes, they are now suggesting a weather bomb down the east coast and cause a massive storm surge. Come on guys be real, it won't happen., otherwise you will get Nathan Reo on the case. Maybe they are so dishearted that there is now sign of snow they need something else to discuss.
Thats because that storm signals the start of the cold weather. Theres a few whiffs of the 62 big freeze about this. Ramp over.
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Precisely PM people must not underestimate the potential of the ECM run.Rarely will all the output sing off the same hymn sheet this far out.
Exactly I'd more concerned about the details on monday rather than this far out. It could also improve.
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I hope the ECM tones down those two lows nearer the time, whilst it might look fun for those north of the centre on the southern flank theres some pretty vile winds. Who needs all that drama at Christmas!
Of course at that range these lows might well disappear by this evening or be much weaker, overall though we're still not seeing a clean transition to cold with alot going on by way of shortwaves in the Atlantic especially on the ECM.
The pattern is also just a bit too far west, the GFS P with a western based negative NAO, regardless of any eye candy that might appear past T240hrs its pretty underwhelming, the ECM at least holds the troughing over eastern Canada which would hopefully keep the pattern from going further west although its still too close for comfort.
Overall nothings agreed on today in terms of whether Christmas is white or green, and certainly the ECM needs to get more festiive, yes deliver some snow but really whats with the wind?!
Its because of the vast quantities of sprouts consumed during xmas day.
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Can i blow the dust off my ramp yet??
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
just for once I wish the op run was from the bottom end of that chart!