Adi F

I think i need to clarify I am not saying there will be no thunder storms before Sunday, there is a good chance of thunderstorms tomorrow and Saturday but I am focusing more on the tornado potential. I may be wrong but I don't think there is enough heat for anything today but i may be wrong.

Me too mate. Partly why I have focused on the start of nextweek and the possibility of widespread storms and potential for some tornado’s.I know it is a long way out and the charts may well change but the risk inconstantly being highlighted in consecutive runs. Yes the minutia of the datais all over the place at the moment but the trend has not changed that much andwhen we are looking that far out it’s the trend that counts. We might all be wrong, the snow may return tomorrow and not stop for 6 months!

No offence here mate, I know How heated some of these storm discussions can get and that everyones personal opinions are only that, Personal. The only thing that winds me up is when people don't look at the available charts and flame people that have looked. Informed opinions are all useful for the learning proses. The charts has a great way of showing everything is in place and still nothing happens or the charts say no way and the atmosphere says other wise.

Harry I don't mind if you take the P**s or not. I may not have been on here for ages but I think I have a proven track record for storm prediction from my past efforts. The atmosphere is ripe for some amazing storms which can be seen by looking at the TT, humidity, relative vorticity but the jet aint perfect and the Cape is not great. Temp is just not going to get high enough. Forecasting is about looking at the conditions, today is not ideal yet if something can force the atmosphere then it is ripe for some amazing storms i just cant see anything that will force it. As for Rep, who gives a damn about it?

If the right conditions can be reached then there is a chance that there could be some big very active storms But there is just not enough temperature so I can't see it happening. If the temp was there I would say today would have been epic.

I don't think there is much potential for storms today. There is a slight risk for Ireland and North Wales into Merseyside but its only slight. Edited to say: if storms do kick of in the areas mentioned they will be big active storms

I personally don't take much notice of convergence when I am forecasting for tornado's.

The charts are not showing a Spanish Plume. A Spanish plume is made up of very warm moist lower level air and the upper air is warm but much dryer. The charts show warm moist air through out the airmass. So I am with Sprites on this.

I don't see any significant convergence on the charts to be honest with you.

If there are any tornado's tomorrow I would expect them to be in the form of water spouts to the west of Ireland and Scotland and out to sea. Just my take on the charts. The jet aint that great unlike what the charts are suggesting for the start of next week. I will say I would agree with their lightning prediction though.

I am not so sure about tornado activity for tomorrow. The charts show it as marginal. Its close though.

Although the areas i suggested yesterday have changed the charts are still suggesting there is potential for some tornado activity for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday!

I think that is one to watch on the webcam.

Agree Nick especially when it turned cars over.

That was a good bit of footage. http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/tornado-hits-auckland-shopping-mall--one-dead-20110503-1e626.html http://media.smh.com.au/news/world-news/raw-vision-tornado-strikes-auckland-2340743.html

I think CAPE is one of the free charts available in the NW Datacentre which can be found under Weather on the menu at the top of the site. Well done Jane, you beat me to it.

I get my CAPE charts from NW Extra as does Nick I think I am not sure about the others. For my post re Monday and Tuesday I have not limited my observation to CAPE, my tornado comment was partly based on the TT Index amongst others.

It is a bit early to really have any confidence but one to watch for sure. The evening of Monday the 9th and the morning of Tuesday the 10th of May the charts are showing some signs of wide spread thunder storms with possibly some tornadic activity for the area of Cornwall, Anglesey, Irish Sea, East Coast of the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, Argyll and Bute and surrounding areas. Also including North-west Counties, Central Wales and Berkshire and Oxfordshire. As usual this is still a long way out and the models are bound to change but one worth watching.

We will have to wait and see and looking at your selective charts it does not tell the whole story, take a look at the amount of CIN. That will put it into perspective. Secondly are you able to find some software that you can use to crop your images. I can recommend irfanview http://www.irfanview.com/

Wellington Littlemissy? Wellington Somerset by any chance. Did you ever hang out around the swimming pool in the early 80s? lol Yeah thats a good one data from the meto

Yeah we need the rain. The weather across IoW and Somerset is the trough and the weather in Cornwall looks as if it is the occluded front so I don't think there will be any activity.

Chimet and Cambermet have both shown a slight increase in winds in the last hour. Probably a good call Pinball, cheers for looking.

LOL ok mate.

Hi Pinball cheers for the update. I was just wondering if there might be some upper level activity. I see you are still sporting that Pompey badge! lol

SM do you think they will electrify once over land? I am in Chi so can be on Hayling very quickly.