Walsall Wood Snow

Being as this October appears to be shaping up to be on the cool side, I wonder whether we'll end up getting some early season snowfall, such as happened in 2008 and (for some areas though not here) 2012. Probably not of course but it does feel like it's heading more towards that direction than a lot of October's in recent years.

I also remember last year overhearing people talk about how we're supposedly expecting a very cold Winter (clearly believers in Daily Express tosh). In the end it couldn't have been more opposite. I also remember in December 2010 overhearing a colleague state that she was disappointed that her boyfriend was getting her a Winter coat for Chrismas and her complaining that this would be pointless as Winter would be over soon after then (clearly somebody who doesn't realise there's 2 months of Winter after Christmas). Though in fact for that particular Winter she wasn't really wrong as the harshness of that Winter ended on the 27th with the extreme cold behind us by then.

I think it was you WH who said we haven't had a very cold February since 1991. Though I think 2009 was reasonably cold as was 2010. I think it was also you a few years back who pointed out that in recent years we've had a very cold November and December (2010), a very cold January (also 2010 in the previous Winter) and even a very cold March (2013). February though is the one Winter month which has failed so far to obtain a very cold CET in the post 2008 era.

Don't get me wrong, I do believe Iapennell is a very knowledgeable forecaster. However he is one that is very pessimistic about cold weather in this day and age. This does of course drive his thoughts a lot when it comes to forecasting the Autumn and Winter seasons. He's by no means alone of course and indeed he has been right during the last 3 Winters as they did indeed lack cold weather. He does put forth ideas of course to possibly counter mild Winters. This type of thinking alone shows a lack of faith for cold Winters to occur naturally these days (despite such Winters been as recent as 4 years ago). This alone shows a forecasting bias when it comes to seasonal forecasts. And I therefore feel he's unlikely to produce a cold Winter forecast unless somehow it's glaringly likely ones about to occur. There are others of course who almost never forsee a mild dominated Winter and are prone to make sensationalist forecasts, which often don't verify. Of course I do admire his efforts and he's undoubtedly knowledgeable enough to give it a good go. I don't have anything near the skill to do it personally. For that matter I can't even independently interpret the short range models and have to rely on more knowledgeable posters in the MO thread to get a feel for what to expect. So my hat goes off to him in that regard.

It's his bullishness concerning lack of frosts many weeks into the future that gets me. I mean he could be right but he seems very sure of himself when he says such things. How can anyone really. I don't know though maybe he's one of very few people who's mastered the art of long range weather forecasting to be able to confidently make such statements.

Well Iapennell is going for a rather unspectacular Winter with his preliminary forecast. No surprise there really. Not that I'm saying he'll be wrong but he's certainly not expecting the early cold some long range forecasts are hinting. I'm not too sure how to take his forecasts as yet as he does seem to be a (it's going to be mild all the time) type of forecaster. Though of course he does mention possible short lived cold snaps, particularly for Scotland, but no beast from the east type scenarios. Plus he didn't join the forum until post Winter 2012/13 so it's hard to know whether his Winter forecasts have been close to correct by chance or whether he's that good he would indeed call a cold Winter if it's going to happen or he's some latest Ian Brown type character (I don't want this to come across as accusatory or offensive by the way). Whatever's the case there's no doubt he's meteorologically literate. I guess we'll see though.

Actually though it must be remembered that despite being equally famous those two Winters were a bit different. 1946/47 was more famous for being exceptionally snowy whereas 1962/63 was more famous for being exceptionally cold (though both were cold and snowy of course). But it must be remembered they were each unique in their own way. In fact 1946/47 didn't get to its most extreme thase until January, whereas 1962/63 got going in late December. As for this coming Winter I very much doubt we're going to get anything to rival those two. But then again any such Winter is unlikely to be realised until either it's happening or afterwards. Such is the rare nature of such Winters.

It is my also my experience that any forecasting organization has got a a very poor track record when it comes to long range forecasts. Especially official ones put out by the collective organisation. Some amateur individuals in fact seem to be closer to the mark. In fact the best I have ever come across was Glaciar Point. But unfortunately for us he doesn't post on here so much any more. I mean he wasn't always spot on (who is) but his long range outlooks were always fairly close. In fact he correctly called the breakdown and subsequent lack of cold weather after December 2010, when many were expecting more of the same at the time. On the other hand he did predict a major easterly event in December 2012, which failed in the end, but to be fair the major models were predicting as such right to the nail. It's a shame though we don't get his insight these days as he was a brilliant forecaster.

Talking about my location only, Winter 2005/06 was by no means fantastic. In fact we never got a good snow event here during that Winter. There was however a good frosty period if I remember rightly in late December 2005. However as I say very little in the way of snow, except again if I remember rightly we had a bit in late November 2005. But it didn't last long. I believe other parts of the country didn't do too badly. In fact again if I remember rightly I think that was the Winter that in February we had forecasts of heavy disruptive snow one day which in the end resulted in all day snowfall that refused to settle. I remember the depression and frustration that caused for me at the time. I guess for me and my location I would class it as something of a so close but no cigar type of Winter. Luckily the Winters of 2008/09 to 2012/13 (excluding 2011/12 really) more than made up for it.

I see there is speculation of an early start to Winter such as happened in 2010/11. I'm trying not to get my hopes up too much on that front in case it doesn't come off, but it's an exciting idea nonetheless. What a brilliant early Winter it was. For me December is Christmas month and for years I've been putting my Christmas decorations up on the 1st December. In 2010 I fondly remember doing so with snow outside, both on the ground and falling, with great long icicles hanging from the sheds outside. That year nature joined me with the festive ritual. Also watching Christmas films and cartoons and such that month with both snow on screen and actually outside the window too. And to top it off a deep lying layer of snow and sub zero temperatures on the big day itself. It was truly magical and a proper Christmas card scene environment. 2009 wasn't half bad either but it started later and unfortunately here we had a thaw on Christmas Eve, leaving nothing but a few little bits of residual stuff in the odd spot. The only disappointing aspect of Winter 2010/11 as an whole though was that its potency ended too early (27th December) leaving 2 months of Winter with nothing much except a bit of short lived thin lying snow in January and then a mild February. It was still a brilliant Winter though for late November and December alone and was great for the festive period. But if we had a similar one again I'd like it to last into January and February aswell. On the other hand I'd more than happily take a carbon copy rather than any of the most recent 3 Winters any day.

Well ok I guess the 6/7 cold Winter idea doesn't stand up much. Never mind. But I did admit it can't always work being as Winter 2006/07 was mild. Just another case of clutching at straws I guess .

As I said in an earlier post, this coming Winter will mark the 70th anniversary of Winter 1946/47. Weather History also made the point it will also mark the first centenary of the brutal Winter of 1916/17. There does seem to be quite a number of cold Winters that started in a year ending in 6 and ending in a year ending in 7. 1996/97 started off cold, though it went pear shaped in the end. 1986/87 had the famous January cold spell and I think 1976/77 was also the first cold Winter for a few years at the time. I'm not really sure about 1966/67 but the 60s were generally cold Winter dominated so I wouldn't be surprised if it was. Neither am I sure about 1956/57. 1946/47 of course goes without saying. Anything before that such as 1936/37 and 1926/27 is a mystery to me, but I have heard that Winters in the 20th century pre 1940s were generally average to mild. So even though 1916/17 was famously cold it was something of a anomaly and yet again 1906/07 I know nothing about. Of course bringing it back to the last Winter that started in a year ending in 6 and ending in a year ending in 7 we have Winter 2006/07 which didn't follow the rules and was quite mild. It did produce a good nationwide snow event though in late January and/or early February (in fact the best here at the time since late Jan/early Feb 2004 or maybe even late Dec 2001/early Jan 2002). All this is another factor giving me just a little hope that Winter 2016/17 will be better cold and snow wise than the previous 3.

Brilliant. Though to be honest such a Winter would go beyond even my wildest dreams. I mean every Winter month returning a sub zero CET figure. I can't even imagine.

When you say 'setting up Jan to a beck of a start' do you mean a cold spell? It's just that you say you're expecting an attack from the SW as we approach the New Year,which would suggest a mild and wet spell. Do you mean this will change to weather from a cold source at the start of January? Also being as you say you expect this attack from the SW approaching New Year, do you mean after Christmas Day, giving us a cold Christmas or potentially before it giving us a mild one? Then again I'm not sure this is actually meant as a forecast or just what you hope to happen?

Do you mean you're not expecting a decent Winter until 2019. I hope we don't have to wait that long. I mean I will want it to be cold when it comes but I hope Winter 2016/17 will be cold first. As well as Winter 2017/18 and then (maybe you mean) Winter 2018/19 or Winter 2019/20. Then every Winter from then on to also to be cold and snowy forever and ever till the end of time. I wish, lol .

I completely forgot about that one. Though that occurred during the First World War and added to the misery of those serving in the trenches over in France. It was probably the harshest Winter of the early 20th century as well and was something of an anomaly as well I believe with most Winters before the Second World War being on the average to mild side.

But I didn't exist during those two Winters (unless reincarnation is real and I lived in this country in another lifetime or lifetimes but either so I neither remember or know) so a similar Winter or Winters is something I'd like to experience myself. How I would feel about such a Winter during it is another matter. Whether I'd love it so much that any lesser Winter wouldn't cut the mustard anymore (though this is a complaint I've never heard anyone make) or whether I'd end up hating it after so long and converting me to a mild Winter lover, I don't know (though I imagine not). But I'll never know for sure unless it happens.

Just to note this coming Winter will mark the 70th anniversary of Winter 1946/47. It would be great to have another cold Winter to coincide with it. Winter 2012/13 was also the 50th anniversary of Winter 1962/63 and we had a cold Winter then. Though not as severe in Winter proper, March 2013 could probably be classed as a severely cold month for its time of year.

I think (based on nothing) we'll have a average Winter overall but perhaps leaning more to the cold side than the mild side. By this I mean we'll have cold spells interspersed with mild spells (though nothing exceptionally mild ala Dec 15) and I think we might even get a very cold and snowy nationwide event at some point or even more than one. I do think that there's also fair chance it'll be colder than the previous 3 though based on the 3 mild Winters sandwiched between 2 colder ones theory, such as happened between the Winters of 1986/87 and 1990/91, and also 1996/97 and 2000/01. Though admittedly that could have been mere coincidence rather than some sort of climatic probability, but we'll see. On the other hand I hope for a Winter to be up there with the greats of 1946/47 and 1962/63. But they're too rare to expect at any given time. Never say never though I suppose.

Well if Fergie's saying they look interesting at least that's a crumb of comfort for cold Winter fans, been as he's no sensationalist and always calls things as he sees them. (Note I know he hasn't called anything).

Just returned from a weeks holiday in New York city and it was still very much Summer there with crystal blue skies and warmth (except for last Monday when it rained all day and the one morning when it was cloudy and a bit cool). Coming back here was such a contrast and feels like Autumn has finally arrived with cool temperatures, slate grey skies and rain. To think that yesterday morning I was sitting in Central Park in what would here be considered a perfect Summer's day. Even the trees here are now starting to show more Autumnal colours than they were there, with everything there still been lush and green. I'd love to go there in the Winter but I'd be afraid that if I did that I'd end up there on one of the rare occasions that it was very mild there and here there would be an epic cold and snowy spell. So that's why I'll never go on holiday in Winter even to somewhere that's more likely to be snowy. Not that you can beat snow at home anyway.

In response to Matthew Wilson I suppose Winter 2014/15 is one of those Winters whereby people will have different opinions on it based on location. It was defiantly colder than the 2 Winters either side of it but there was defiantly a north/south split during that Winter with Scotland and northern England doing ok, but with here in the Midlands and especially southern England doing poorly. Here we had a few snow showers if I remember rightly but it always seemed to be a dusting and gone by midday at the latest. We had the snow on the evening of Boxing Day, but it was very wet and didn't stick about for long, though it was followed briefly for a day or 2 by anticyclonic conditions which produced a bit of frost (nothing potent though). Elevation was also key during that Winter as areas in the Peak District had alot more than here. I suppose it did lean towards average UK wide really but in the south of the UK it was probably leaning towards the milder side of average with some areas of the south getting nothing at all. Though if the 3 mild Winters between 2 colder ones theory doesn't produce a cold Winter this time, we can always blame it on Winter 2014/15 not been mild enough.

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