Walsall Wood Snow

A thought I've had recently is how often on average do very cold December's occur. Although my knowledge in this area is limited (I don't know the CET figures etc) my guess is somewhere in the region of about once every 15 years give or take. Although we had 2 in a row with 2009 and 2010 (though the former didn't really get going until fairly far into the month) the last before then was probably 1995 (though saying that 2000 had a pretty intense cold spell in the Christmas to New Year period). Before then there was 1981 which was 14 years prior. I'm not so sure before then but 15 years before then would have been in the mid 60s, so 1965 possibly? Though we know 1962 was cold though again the most brutal cold didn't come until quite late in the month. Anyway based on this idea, though it might not be the case maybe our next very cold December shouldn't be expected to at or around 2025. This is only an idea of course so it would be interesting to hear if anybody thinks there's anything in this or not.

Back then people probably didn't think that until it was actually over. People who also don't follow weather forums probably feel the same. I've sometimes thought to myself it might be better for my peace of mind to stop bothering, but I can't help myself and day after day during late Autumn to early Spring I'm on here looking for signs of hope. The last 3 Winters and this one thus far have been especially bad with glimmers of hope constantly extinguishing. None though have been more of an anti climax though than what this December initially seemed to suggest only for it to fail. Not since the LRFs for Winter 2005/06 has so much promise dissipated, though even that Winter was sort of cold at times, if practically snowless here. Even January now doesn't look too promising, at least the first half. Maybe this Winter can be saved after then. We are long overdue a very cold February after all, the last been 1996 with 1991 been the last one by any great measure. Or maybe the unthinkable is the case and we're destined for a fourth mild Winter in succession. Who knows, but nothing good is in plain sight at present at least, maybe something will pop up though.

It always seems to even out though. As after that period of mild Winters there was more or less a decade's worth run of colder and snowier Winters from 1976/77 to 1986/87. I was hoping that this Winter would be better though based on other past periods when 3 mild Winters came in succession with colder ones on either side such as happened in the late 80s with the Winters from 1987/88 to 1989/90 which was followed by the classic of 1990/91. Also those from 1997/98 to 1999/2000, which were followed by the colder one of 2000/01. Though of course this Winter could turn out for the better with more than 2 months still to go. However if it doesn't perhaps it will all even out eventually with a more sustained run of colder Winters in the future such as happened in the late 70s to mid 80s. I think the 90s and 00s, though often defined as having milder Winters were actually a bit mixed with colder shots occurring most years, so maybe a period of much milder Winters such as those we've had since 2013 could hopefully give us a better period in the future. Besides from all that though who knows what the weather may bring before Spring arrives for certain. We could get lucky yet.

I was in New York back in September. I should have gone now instead (though it seems in the city itself it gets cleaned up pretty quick into piles though I imagine it looks good in Central Park). Thing is I'm reluctant to go on holiday in the Winter months, even to somewhere I'm more likely to see snow just in case I miss something good here. After all you can't beat the feeling from snow at home (when it's good at least). It was actually really warm and sunny when I was there 3 months back (except for the first day when it rained), and it's hard to imagine how different it is now. It makes me a little jealous. They've been having a few good cold spells in parts of the USA in recent years, surely it's our turn to see some action.

I was going to question who 'said in 1981' but then I realised this article was published in 2011 and wasn't a contemporary piece and that the 3 Winters they were referring to would have been those from 2008/09 to 2010/11, rather than the 3 before then. Of course that run of cold Winters started roughly with that of 1976/77 with the last being that of 1986/87. So about a decade. There was quite a run of mild Winters though before that period starting with probably 1971/72 with 1974/75 for example being especially so. We obviously had a shorter run of cold Winters from that of 2008/09 to 2012/13 (2011/12 being an exception for the most part). It does go to show though that the theme of Winter temperatures often cluster one way or the other over a number of years from time to time. Let's just hope the mild theme of Winters from 2013/14 was ended with last Winter and that this Winter eventually proves to be different.

In that case the event I'm referring to when I was at work could very well have been January. But I'm sure the London trip was in February and I know we had some snow shortly beforehand because I remember on the way (when we were still round here) my Mum saying 'I wonder if we'll get any more snow'. So maybe I'm getting these events confused (it was nearly 13 years ago now I suppose). Anyway based on that Winter 2003/04 wasn't necessarily a too bad Winter, if nothing too special. Thanks again .

The event I referred to could have been then. I don't remember exactly when except I know it was 2004. Actually another thing I just remembered about this event was that shortly after I went to London for the weekend with my family and I remember it snowing there then, though it didn't settle. It was a cold weekend though and when I got back I remember having a bonfire in my back garden with my Dad. There was no snow left here by that point but it felt bitter, but I think this cold spell ended quickly after. Come to think of it, it must have been then rather than January as I initially thought. Thanks for clearing that up MP-R. Perhaps Atlantic 252 will also remember something better from then than that January chart he posted.

It wasn't especially deep round here either I think, but it did look good especially come evening and was certainly better than any event we've had round here since March 13. Though it didn't happen here I think there were reports of thundersnow in some parts.

Yes I think the Dec 01 event was a bit isolated. Everywhere I went there was snow about but I would have only been in the local area at the time, though I remember going to Star City near Birmingham with my family one evening and there was snow round there. On the other hand a friend of mine at the time who lived in Willenhall said there was none round his way, and he decided to stay with his grandparents who lived up the road in Brownhills just to be around the snow. Dec 00 though as you say was much more widespread around the country and therefore is better remembered by more people, as well as been deeper and colder. Though that was something of a cold Winter overall, if not remarkably so, except for that spell I forgot about Feb 03, I was at college then and I remember having snowball fights at break time there. But what I was referring to was definitely 04 as it was my first Winter in my current job (I started in Oct 03) and I think now happened sometime in late January. I remember on the news there was traffic jams in Birmingham due to black ice and it felt bitter that night. It didn't last long though and may have started thawing as soon as the next day.

Another thing to consider is that even in mild Winters, isolated snow events aren't out of the question. In this location though the last 3 have been very poor in this regard. I've seen snowfall in all 3 (even the especially dire 2013/14, but that was just a brief shower that didn't settle, though the flakes were big) but the best i've got in that time was a thin slushy covering, both on Boxing Day evening 2014 and sometime last January. This has made those Winters especially bad, whereas even a day or two of heavy snow with a deepish cover may have redeemed them somewhat. We've had mild Winters before though which have given us at least some decent snow. I actually fondly remember the snow in late December 2001. It came down on the evening of the 29th and left a fair covering. It was followed by a few days of very cold weather, especially at night with freezing fog and hoar frost and the canal near here was frozen solid. It was still around on New Year's Eve as well and probably lasted to the 2nd of January. Yet it was a mild Winter overall. Other examples were late January or early February 2004 when we had a bit of a blizzard followed by very cold temperatures that night. Don't forget also Christmas Day evening 2004 with a cover still throughout Boxing Day. Also early February 2007 when we had a couple of days of snow with a fair covering that was enough for sledging and snowman building and such. Interesting note about that event was that the previous Winter of 2005/06 was actually colder but delivered much less snow wise here (though it did snow constantly one day but refused to settle). So it just goes to show that even mild Winters (and Winter 2006/07 was very mild) can still deliver, if not for very long. There's got to be young kids round here who can't remember March 2013 and therefore have no memory of what a decent covering of snow looks like except for films and pictures and stuff. Very sad. We've just got to hope that even if this Winter does end up mild (and I'm not saying it will) that we can get at least a short spell of decent snow at some point this time.

It's a shame that many of the LRFs for this Winter (or at least December) look like going bust. Just goes to show how much they have to be taken with a pinch of salt and that they do fail from time to time. Though no doubt we'll all be looking at next year's LRFs in November and be expecting them to verify (myself included). It's a shame really though because they raised expectations that we would get a very different December to what's actually verified. If they had gone for mild, but it actually turned out cold and snowy, we would have been disappointed at the time of release, but when the real time weather occurred we would have been pleasantly relieved. It never seems to happen like that though does it. Not that I'm giving up hope for the whole of Winter mind, but it looks like it's going to be post New Year before anything cold and snow wise could happen. One thought I've had though is because the forecasts suggested a front loaded Winter with a milder end, you've got to wonder whether even that could be wrong and whether it could turn out the polar opposite of that, with the later part of Winter i.e. the second half of January and February been where the action may ultimately lie. As Weather History has pointed out before it's been many years since we've had a very cold February with both December and January and even November and March all containing very cold spells in relatively recent times. You'd think February's fortunes would have to change eventually. Thing is it's too far away to have any idea about and even January's prospects are still quite unforeseeable, especially after the first week. Anyway we've got to keep the faith for now and I'm still hopeful based at least solely on the admittedly unscientific 3 mild Winters sandwiched between 2 colder ones theory.

This looks lovely and festive. Maybe it'll get the actual weather to get Christmasy too . Though couldn't this have just been the default theme over the Christmas period, rather than been optional? Anyway I love it, thanks Paul and Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all .

A bit like now (though that period between Feb 91 and Nov 93 was more of a carp run for snow than cold in general). I don't think the current crap run will last too much longer and even this Winter might yet break us free from the cycle. Historically there does tend to be a trend for clusters when it comes to cold with snow and mild with little snow type Winters, with more mixed periods in between. We obviously had a more cold and snowy cluster of Winters from 2008 to 2013 with the current milder and pretty snowless period commencing since then. I am hoping that this Winter might break it, based on the idea that there has been periods in the past where 3 mild Winters were sandwiched between 2 colder ones. Such as the mild and indeed very mild Winters between those of 1986/87 and 1990/91. Also between those of 1996/97 and 2000/01. Though there was a longer 5 year cluster of mild Winters between 1970/71 and 1976/77. Also a 7 year cluster between 2000/01 and 2008/09. Though to be fair, though mild overall it was a bit more mixed than that, with 2005/06 being slightly on the cold side with even 2002/03 and 2003/04 having isolated cold spells. Whatever happens though I think this Winter won't be as bad as 2013/14 and 2015/16. Or at least I hope not.

Exactly. The vegetation cycle tells a different story, as well as the annual changes in daylight hours. Plus the weather and temperatures still fluctuate throughout the year. It's just the lack of extremes on either end of the spectrum which gives some people this impression. Though I still get times in Summer when I have to open the window to keep cool and there are still times in Winter when it's uncomfortably chilly enough to put the central heating on. The seasons are still distinct. We just haven't been having much in the way of long lasting heatwave or freezes. But that's the British climate for you and at this point we don't have to look back too many years to find examples of such, even if it might feel like it sometimes.

Actually I think northern England and Scotland are both more likely to see a white Christmas and Easter than southern England. Remember snow isn't too uncommon northern Britain late March well into April, which is when Easter falls. It's much less common in southern Britain by that time. Though whether this translates as northern Britain having more chance of a white Christmas than Easter I'm unsure. It also depends on elevation and proximity to the coast. Also because Easter unlike Christmas doesn't have a set date, there's more room for manoeuvre in terms of likelihood. Therefore the earlier the Easter the more chance of snow. Though because Easter isn't any earlier than late March the north has snow more often this late than the south so the chances there are greater. And because Christmas is well and truly in Winter I believe the south still has a greater chance of seeing snow then than it does by Easter. In fact I think it's probably a bit of a myth for Britain as a whole that white Easter's are more probable than white Christmas's.

I for one am going to remain optimistic for this Winter season as a whole unless things don't improve by mid January at least. The thing with the meteorological definitions of our seasons, also the skewed impression left by the relatively recent Winters of 2009/10 & 2010/11, which started remarkably early for our part of the world (the later of which though amazing for late November and December alone, as a whole was a Winter of contrasts with a very cold start, a less cold middle and a mild end), is the fact that usually the first month of any season, whether that be March, June, September or December, is that these months seldom fit aesthetically into the seasons they're regarded as being part of and very often are merely continuations of the previous season, with the middle month i.e April, July, October and January being more likely to be the months when said seasons kick start properly. I know this isn't always so, with January having a tendency these days to not be especially wintry (but it is still the month most of us still get some snow at some point even if insubstantial and short lived) and we've even had some quite warm March's like 2012 for example (though a year later in 2013 we had such a wintry March it would put many official Winter months, including this December, thus far to shame). But statistically the seasons seldom show their full potential until the middle month. So based on that fact alone and being only 10 days into this Winter, with another 80 to go, there is still a massive amount of time for some proper Winter weather. And we all know many of us are bound to see some snow before this season's out, as we do nearly every year, and indeed some people have already in November. Keep the faith.

That was in 2004.

Thanks Slaphead. Just to clarify when you say the March 87 event was localised to Staffordshire and the north Midlands, I presume you mean the north West Midlands county and that the Walsall borough area was affected? Anyway thanks again for the info. It's good to hear about what these events were like back then by somebody like yourself who would have been living so close by to me, and who is old enough to remember, to give me a pretty accurate picture of what these events would have been like in my own back yard. Cheers .

Indeed CS, which is no bad thing. In fact I remember a few December's growing up in the 90s like this one looks like turning out. Not much in the way of snow (though occasionally it happened but never at Christmas itself and was often short lived), but plenty of cold clear days with plenty of night frosts interspersed with milder, cloudier and wetter periods. As I said above though we can't rule out snow popping up in the forecasts at short notice, and with Christmas more than 18 days away yet, there's a big enough window still for the possibility of snow that day. I'm still pretty optimistic though that we could get deep and long lasting cold with snow towards the end of the month going into January.

I know it's a long shot but we can't write off a White Christmas yet really. We all know that things can pop up very short notice. Think back to Christmas 2004, that wasn't forseen until a few days before (maybe only a couple or so) Also as recently as late December 2014 there was some wet snow on Boxing Day evening (ok here at least it was very wet and only left a thin and slushy covering) but that was also only picked up on briefly before it happened. Truth is we won't have any true idea until the week leading up to it, so for now at least we can all continue to keep dreaming of a White Christmas .

Oh ok, I was unsure what he meant by selling. I thought that could either mean he would discard it or he thought it was of enough value to sell himself. I now see he meant the former, which is good news to me as a cold and snow fanatic, but as Ian said it is what GloSea is predicting. But as GP himself said he does lean towards the first week of Jan being unstable (and that doesn't necessarily mean mild and we know what that could mean) and Frosty pointed out as well that zonality doesn't have to mean of a mild nature. As ever though time will tell. But at least there are signs of positivity for us cold and snow fans to cling to now after an awful few days in this thread.

Thanks GP

Do you mean by this, has of things stand, you're expecting January to be mild and unsettled?

Hi slaphead. I remember now it was you who explained these Winters to me when I posted a topic about them a few years back. Feb 85 sounds amazing, but that would have been a few weeks before I was born (end of March). What about Nov 85 and also late Dec 85/early Jan 86 (as I've heard there was a short lived snowy spell then) do you recollect what it was like then? Also Mar 87 if you don't mind as though the Jan beforehand is better remembered I have heard that March was also cold with snow. I've tried asking my Mum before now about snow during these times but she doesn't really remember as such. I believe there was also some snow in Nov 88, which would have been when my sister was born and my my Mum recalls me looking out the window at it coming down in the Manor hospital when visiting her. Though I don't remember any despite remembering seeing my sister for the first time. She remembers Feb 91 quite clearly though as unfortunately her brother died at the time. I do too as I was 5 going on 6 by then but only very vaguely, but for me it was one of my earliest recollections of snow, though I could be remembering Dec 90 earlier that same Winter and what I remember could be a mix of both events, as I have no recollection of my Uncle dying (though I do remember him a bit) and all I remember is playing in the snow in my back garden. In fact I've got three photos of me standing next to a snowman I made from one of those events (impossible to tell which) and the snow looks amazing. I also remember helping to decorate the Christmas tree and I recollect seeing snowflakes drifting past the living room window when I must have got heavy handed which caused the tree to topple over on top of me and that undoubtedly would have been in Dec 90. I also recall sitting in the back of my Dad's car with him struggling to get it off the drive, with the wheels spinning and such (we lived in Goscote back then). Another memory of that Winter I have is visiting my Grandad and there being this big drift in the corner of his yard (I live in that house now actually which as you can see from my location is in Walsall Wood, but there hasn't been a drift like that here since, though March 2013 provided some more modest drifts on another side of it). Anyway thanks again slaphead and I hope to hear from you soon to hopefully provide some details if you'd be so kind about the events (Nov 85, Dec 85/Jan 86 and Mar 87) if you could please.

Just noticed that it's very foggy out there tonight. Last night there was a good frost. Not the worst start to Winter really despite the mild weather soon to commence. Let's just hope it's short lived and with any luck we'll have snow to report on in the next few weeks and not just our Peak District and higher altitude located Midlands members.