Walsall Wood Snow

No problem Gael_Force. I agree (or at least lean towards) that things are not necessarily so clear cut in terms of what a warming Arctic means for our future Winters. Then again I don't wholeheartedly believe that Arctic warming is now perpetual and that it couldn't for some reason cool again (though I admit there is no sign of this currently but I don't believe it's an impossibility like some do as I am wary of absolute claims concerning an unseen future).

Hi Gael_Force. For some reason your quote from iappennel has appeared as a quote from me. I'm sure you know you have quoted him and not me though. Probably just because you quoted him from my post which had his post quoted in it (all a bit confusing I know), in which I asked whether he had any reason or not to have any faith in the September Glosea update, posted on here by CreweCold, which shows a blocked Winter pattern. He hasn't as yet answered, though I take it from his insistence that the odds are stacked against a cold Winter 2016/17 that he doesn't (not yet at least anyway). Though I do find the report you linked to interesting. There does seem to be contradictory speculation though on what a warmer Arctic means for our future Winter climate. Though as you say iappennell is basing his opinions on 13 year old research though, when other alternative opinions have since come forward. So who knows in all honestly. Though I do think the opinion of a warmer Arctic causing colder mid latitude Winters has come about mostly as an attempt to explain some of the colder Winters which have occurred in the populous regions of the mid latitudes since the late 00s, both here and in eastern North America. As for what I think may happen (which has no scientific basis, so to be taken with a pinch of salt) is that due to relatively recent periods in the past when we have had 3 mild to very mild Winters in the past following a cold one, we have ended up with another colder or quite cold Winter following them. This happened after the cold Winter of 1986/87, which was followed by 3 very mild Winters, which in turn were followed by the cold Winter of 1990/91. Again a decade later we had the coldish Winter of 1996/97 which again was followed by 3 consecutive mild Winters which were followed by the coldish Winter of 2000/01. And being as Winter 2012/13 was a cold one which was also immediately followed by a very cold Spring and the 3 Winters which have so far succeeded it have been mild to very mild, maybe just maybe we'll get another cold one now at last. Then again what happened back then was probably nothing more than a coincidence and we'll end up with a fourth or more mild Winter this time. Though it's something which is giving me just a little hope and comfort at least.

I take it you have little to no confidence of the September Glosea update being anywhere close to the mark then?

What's interesting from that list is that the max recorded temperature for a particular year has a habit of clustering sometimes at a particular site. The one that stood out for me was Camden square which recorded the annual max from 1926 to 1930 (5 years in a row). Though 1928 and 1929 were both shared with Newport (IOW) and 1929 was also shared with Margate. There are plenty of other examples though of particular sites recording the highest annual temperature 2 or 3 years in succession though, or skipping a year only to hold the record again 2 years later. In fact Camden Square held the record in 1922, 1923 and 1924 also. It missed out in 1925 to Hunstanton. But if it had gained the record that year it would have held it for an incredible 9 years in succession. But alas it wasn't to be.

Let's hope he doesn't I think you mean, lol

I feel quite sorry for you as a weather enthusiast living in Telford. It seems based from this forum that it's the most rubbish place in the world for interesting weather. Not that it's particularly brilliant here, but it seems whenever there's a anything of interest happening in the Midlands in general, Telford and pretty much anywhere in Shropshire seems to be missing out. If you can I'd just move somewhere else. Not that that's always practical mind. Even if you stay there though surely you've got to get a break someday.

Seems to be dying down now though as the rain is getting lighter, it's not as dark and any noise is getting more distant again. Good sharp storm while it lasted though.

Proper thunderstorm here with flashes, bangs and torrential rain. I heard a few distant rumbles earlier, but thought nothing much would come of it (as thunderstorms are pretty rare here these days), but how wrong I was. Didn't expect this at all, so is a nice surprise (from an extreme weather fans point of view of course).

Just thought I'd mention that despite earlier reports of some of my tadpoles completing metamorphosis, in all honestly with the exception of one which I mentioned had lost it's tail, for weeks, and only so often, most I've seen which have turned have only turned in body shape but have retained full tails. These I have only really seen during warm spells resting atop the duck weed (which has been all over the surface and thick for a long time now). They soon frantically hop about and dive for cover whenever you approach though. I have been worried about a failure of any of them (except the one I mentioned earlier) to transform to their tailess stage though and I haven't noticed any froglets outside the pond, until now that is. A few minutes ago I was up the garden and I noticed a tiny fully transformed froglet hopping about on the path. I can only suspect it originated from my pond as it was close by. So it was quite a relief to see it, as I was starting to worry that this year was another failure for tadpoles to frog change. However earlier I dunked my net in there to see what I could bring up and there are still tadpoles in there. Some had developed their back legs at least but others were still legless. Being as it's September now I can't see many or indeed any of these making it to the frog stage this year now. I've heard though that occasionally tadpoles over Winter and then emerge as froglets the following Spring. Perhaps that's what they'll do?

Getting back to aspects of this season rather than thinking what the next may have in store, I noticed a few mushrooms on my lawn today.

Don't forget also that in 1995 we had a very hot August followed by a cold December. Being as August is only the month before September and being as it's 4 months before December, there is the same time difference between now and January as there was then between a very hot month and a cold one. I'm not saying this means that January will be cold mind, I'm just highlighting how just because temperatures are above average now doesn't mean it's a given it will be then. In fact there's plenty of examples of above average and below average periods in close proximity. Iapennell mentioned the Winter of 1985/86. I don't remember it personally mind as it was my first Winter post womb, but I do know from the records that after the very cold November of 1985, December flipped to quite mild. This of course was followed by the sub zero CET month of February 1986. Coming back to more recent times we have the most recent sub zero CET month of December 2010 (the first since Feb 86 in fact) which was soon followed by the mild February of 2011. This just shows that no matter how extreme temperatures are in one direction doesn't negate the possibility of them flipping in the opposite direction in a matter of weeks even.

Got to say I'm finding this September's heat potential fascinating. Although it's considered a meteorological Autumn month in all honestly it's barely that really anyway. Though I would be disappointed if October was as above average temperature wise as that's when Autumn really gets going in this country really. I suppose this September is the early Autumn equivalent of March 2013 when Winter held on in early Spring and intensified. Bear in mind we actually had an ok Summer that year, so in that context maybe we'll have an ok Winter (cold wise) later. Here's hoping.

Thanks iapennell for your kind reply

Yeah thats what Autumn weather should be about, especially around Halloween and Bonfire night. Not gales, rain and above average temperatures, even though that weather type is associated with Autumn it can be like that any time of year and often is.

So you're saying there's still at least some hope for this coming Winter then despite how things stand at present? If so I'll take that as even if we do end up with a mild Winter I don't want to believe it's a full gone conclusion just yet as Autumn is the season when I start looking forward to and dreaming of Winter again and been as it's only 10 days old I don't want to think we've got nothing to play for this early.

Although the following Winter of 2001/02 was a mild Winter overall we had a similar spell in late December to the previous year here. It snowed then on the evening of the 29th followed by fine weather and 2 or 3 sub zero nights again with hoar frost and the canal froze over with ice thick enough to walk on (not ever recommended of course). This lasted to New Year's Day or the 2nd of January I think and again felt festive and magical. The rest of the Winter though was pants. Although at the time I was content with it and have since been spoiled by the Winters of 2008/09, 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2012/13. I remember in December 2002 hoping for a third year snowfall followed by a few days cold spell only to be disappointed.

A good point. Of course you get those that predict a cold Winter every year and they're best ignored. But it's somebody who can predict one who wouldn't normally when they're about to actually happen which is the real test of a good long range forecaster. But of course these situations are harder to spot and it must take alot of skill to do so. On the other hand I doubt there's anyone who can be right every time.

Interesting how you mention Autumn 2000. I can't say I remember it all that well, but I do somewhat remember Winter 2000/01. It was a fairly coolish Winter from what I remember and was certainly colder than the three Winters that preceded it. There was quite a cold and snowy period in late December with snowfall here on the evening of the 27th anyway which left the best snow cover here (at the time) since Nov 96 I think and produced some pretty cold minimas for two or three nights afterwards with hoar frost and despite being post Christmas Day felt very Christmasy with everybody still having their decorations up. Though most of the month before then had been quite mild and wet I think. March in 2001 was also quite cold with frosty nights and a snow day on the 21st. I'd take that Winter over the last three we've had any day.

In response to weirpig: Of course long range forecasts should be taken with a pinch of salt. However some are better at it than others. Also it has been said that Winter is an easier month to predict for than Summer for some reason. Also Iapennell has got a pretty good success rate with Autumn and Winter forecasts. He also seems to make his predictions with an air of confidence (best to I suppose as it makes them sound more believable) as though what he thinks is practically guaranteed to happen. Such as his assertion that this Autumn will be pretty much frost free.

Iapennell though has stated in his Autumn prediction thread, that because it's suspected that the usual QBO phase will remain westerly instead of switching to its easterly phase that he's expecting from mid October right through November to be mild, wet and windy with little to no frost. He also states that this indicates a high chance that Winter 2016/17 will also be mild, wet and windy. I know it's only early September and that this isn't a definitive forecast as such, but it has been stated that his Autumn and Winter forecasts are usually pretty close to the mark (more so than his Summer forecasts anyway) and he is certainly painting a very gloomy picture for those of us wishing for a more seasonal Autumn and Winter this year into next (which he claims to want also, but he can only report things as he sees them). So there is something of a conflict between his thoughts and what some of the longer range forecasts are starting alto toy with. It does make me worry though when a long range forecaster with a fair bit of success under his belt starts making predictions which are the opposite of what I'm hoping for. Surely a cold snowy Winter after three appalling ones isn't too much to ask, though the weather will do what the weather will do I suppose and it doesn't care what I want. I hope he's wrong though for once (I'm sure he does as well to a degree).

I'm starting to wonder whether Iapennel will be right about us getting no air frosts until at least November (though I'm not sure that's actually unusual for my location and he's actually talking about his more frost prone location, stating this has only happened four times in the last 30 years or more). He certainly seems pretty confident of this. But as ever time will tell. Hope he's wrong, but he does seem like a pretty successful long range forecaster.

Isn't the 21st the start of astronomical Autumn? In which case I want summery conditions to be behind us then until next year. I can tolerate Summer like conditions at the moment as it is still Summer in the astronomical sense, though by the equinox I want Autumn to finally show up.

To be fair you're never going to get a prediction for a white Christmas this far out, at least not above 50%. Even in early December such a prediction would be a very bold one. And in response to BREIFMAN11 I don't think our chances of obtaining a White Christmas have reduced very much, judging by the fact that they're rare in the UK regardless. After all despite milder Winters on average over the last 30 or so years December is the one month during that season which has generally resisted warming (2015 excepted). Also by any measure I have only seen any White Christmases since the turn of the New Millennium and I was born in 1985. These were of course 2001 (brief snow shower), 2004 (snow falling and settling), 2009 (residual patches) and of course 2010 (the best i've yet seen with deep snow cover but of course none falling that day). That was only nearly 6 years ago and even 2014 came pretty close with wet snowfall on the evening of Boxing Day (nearly 2 years ago). So in that sense despite milder Winters so far overall, 21st century white Christmases are so far much more common than they were during the 20th century, when from what I can tell were much less frequent. As for this Christmas statistically as always it's improbable it will snow, but you never know (not at the moment at least) and there's no harm in dreaming as I always do.

Although the forecast as a whole punts for above average temperatures, when broken down on a monthly basis only September is forecast as above average, with October predicted to be around average and November as also around average to slightly below. Though of course the last month of any seasonal forecast is always going to be the one with the least confidence, with the first month and particularly the first week been by far much more so. This is something to bear in mind of course when viewing a forecast which extends over such a broad period. Though what can be said is that September is looking likely to be warmer than average with fine weather to start with. In truth this is all we can feel confident of, though after that really anything can happen. So for those wishing for fine frosty weather and perhaps even some early snow later in the Autumn there's really no need to give up hope just yet. Though mild and wet is always more probable of course.

He's also done a Winter 2016/17 sneak peak aswell using four different models. Overall it doesn't look too brilliant for cold and snow lovers at present with above average temperatures been the main theme. However he is going to be doing more detailed weekly updates starting next Sunday until he releases his own Winter forecast at the end of November/ beginning of December so something to keep an eye on for those interested. Plus I don't know how much or little we can rely on the models to paint a trusted picture from this far out. Though the CFS v2 has been hinting at higher than average heights to our north east though the temperature charts are stubbornly suggesting above average temperatures despite this. Though he does say that is possibly a flaw in the model failing to respond properly to the pressure anomalies. Anyway I suppose (or at least hope) that these early predictions from the models in general are off the mark here (after all a fourth mild Winter on the trot isn't what many of us hope for, though time will tell of course) and hopefully more tasty scenarios come to fruition as time wears on into the Autumn with aspects of that season coming into play which haven't yet come into play, such as Eurasian snow cover, ice formation and others. And what with weekly video updates from Gavin there should be many twists and turns to keep our attention as we approach Winter, so worth keeping an eye on his videos at least. Also as we get closer speculation will intensify from a myriad of voices, professional and amateur alike.