Walsall Wood Snow

I know it's frustrating at the minute, especially since expectations for December were quite high a few weeks back. But we've got to remember that historically it's pretty uncommon for December to be on the very cold and snowy side in the UK. Most of our best Winters didn't really get started until the last third of December (which is still possible this year) or into January. To be honest though I love the idea of a cold and snowy December such as 2010 which feels nice and festive (and I'm still holding out hope for a White Christmas, which nobody knows whether we will or won't get yet anyway), January and February have always been more likely to deliver Winter wonderland scenes in this part of the world and more often have. If we get to say the middle of January and hopes look slim then would be the time to consider waving the white flags, but I'm pretty hopeful we will be having, have had or about to realise a cold and snowy spell by then. But on the 5th of December we can't possibly know how the Winter as a whole will turn out, so we've just got to sit back and remember the point of the season it now is. That is it's indeed Winter but it's only just so and a point within it we historically shouldn't expect too much. As for the outlook, it may be bad but we all know it'll eventually improve in our favour, it always does whether it verifies or not.

I remember this event fairly well. I was in my first year of secondary school and I remember walking up to school in it. When we got there we were all gathered in the assembly hall and after a while it was announced that they were closing for the day. Then I walked back in it and it was fairly deep as well. It was only a one day wonder though as the following night milder air moved in and I could hear the constant dripping of the thawing snow. It was also the only time I was at secondary school that they closed due to snow although I do remember other days later where there was snow. It was a good snow day though, but regrettably I didn't take good advantage of it as I ended up hanging round my next door neighbours house all day and the kid there wasn't interested in playing out in it and he was obsessed with computer games so I ended up playing those with him all day. What a waste of time. Oh well never mind I suppose. I can't believe that was 20 years ago now though.

The models will improve in time, they always do even if what they predict doesn't come to fruition. Could be as soon as tomorrow for all we know or even the pub run could give us a bit of cheer. Point is ups and downs always happen in here and it's obviously been a down day. But I doubt we'll have to wait long for an up day again. 1 day down (one with a cold start as well so at least Winter so far is below average lol) another 89 to go.

Yeah that was me Mark. A few years ago now that was when I posted about that. Winter 1985/86 would have been my first Winter so I've obviously got no memory of it. I was just curious at the time whether anybody from my region had any clear memories of it to enlighten me with. Of course I knew before then that it was a cold Winter, especially in February but I knew nothing of how much snow would have been around etc. Anyway you've provided some info on that with your post so thanks for that. However someone told me in that topic (can't remember exactly who) that though very cold (especially February) it wasn't especially snowy in the West Midlands area. They told me that the previous Winter of 1984/85 was very snowy though and that there was also deeper snow in January 1987 than there was in February 1986. Of course he never mentioned anything about November 1985 and you mention blizzards in early February 1986. Whether the Walsall area received any of this though I'm unsure, but chances are we would have if Birmingham did. I've also heard there was a short lived snowy spell in early January 1986, as well as March 1987. The earliest snowy Winter I remember however was 1990/91 but unfortunately only very vaguely. Anyway thanks again Mark for providing me with an idea of what those Winters were like during my earliest years. If only I had been born a few years earlier I might have had actual memories of these events, but at the same time I'd have to be older now wouldn't I . Oh well lets just hope we can get more Winters like them in the next few years, hopefully starting with 2016/17.

It should also be noted that most cold Winters in the British Isles had far more in the way of cold dry days and frosty nights than days with snowfall and snow cover. The later are much more memorable obviously, but were quite infrequent, except a few exceptional Winters of course. Many people harken back to the Winters of the late 70s to mid 80s for example but I would imagine that most of the cold during those Winters came from frosty highs with snow being a feature only occasionally most years. Of course snow is my ultimate desire too but with the whole of Winter still ahead of us I'm willing to wait a bit (though a White Christmas would be ideal, but we're a long way still from having any idea on that score) and high pressure with the potential of frost and fog is a far greater opening to Winter than the mild wet Atlantic muck we open Winter with a lot of years.

I understand that. My point being however that seasons were originally defined as time keeping concepts for tracking the annual progression of the Sun and had nothing to do with weather measuring purposes. Of course the types of weather we can expect changes from one to the next, but Winter in the original context was a term to describe the half of the year when the Sun is lower in the sky from the Autumnal equinox to the Vernal equinox with the lowest point being at the Winter solstice, which is also refered to as mid Winter. Of course the first half of Winter was and came to be refered to separately as Autumn and as a result it is no longer thought of as being part of Winter anymore. The same applies to Spring and Summer with the latter term once being used to describe the whole of that half of the year, the mid point of course being the Summer solstice hence mid Summer. Of course these four periods came to be regarded as distinct from one another, but they were still terms used for astronomical periods, and many people still track the seasons by their astronomical definitions. Of course meteorologists in time changed the definitions of when they began and ended for their convenience. There's nothing wrong with that but we should recognise their original function was used for measuring the Suns movement in the sky, not weather phenomenon.

I think the reason the solstices are regarded as Mid Summer and Mid Winter is because both Spring and Autumn (and I'm talking about the astronomical definitions of the seasons here) would have once been regarded as sub seasons rather than seasons in their own right. Therefore say after the autumnal equinox it would have been regarded as Winter then until the Vernal equinox when Summer would commence. Obviously half way between them you have the solstices which earned the terms Mid Summer and Mid Winter respectively. Therefore traditionally there were only two seasons with the other two just being descriptive states for the first half of the two main ones which eventually became regarded as separate seasons in their own right. Another thing that has to be remembered that the seasons weren't so much defined by the extreme types of weather we often associate with them, but were invented as time keeping definitions for tracking the annual progression of the Sun. Another name for Autumn of course is Fall, which is a term still widely used in North America and refers to the falling of the Sun from the Autumnal equinox (though actually this process begins after the Summer solstice) to the Winter solstice after which it starts to rise again. Of course these days (certainly in meteorological circles, for the purpose of measuring weather conditions in solid tri monthly periods whose beginning always coincide with the 1st of a particular month) the seasons start on 1st Mar=Spring, 1st Jun=Summer, 1st Sep=Autumn and 1st Dec=Winter. This is out of sync though with the traditional definitions but it is defiantly more convenient for recording purposes as it means the seasons begin and end on the same dates every year, with the exception of the end of Winter during leap years when it is one day longer. Though the amount of days for each season isn't equal by the meteorological definition anyway as though both Spring and Summer are equal with 92 days each, Autumn only has 91 days and most Winters that end in a common year only have 90 days, except once every 4 years, in leap years when it has 91 days equalising it with Autumn. That's just a result of the differing number of days in the months they contain though. Of course the Winter solstice isn't mid Winter by the meteorological definition (that would be somewhere in mid January) or even for that matter the astronomical definition based on the 4 season astronomical year (whereby it's actually considered the start) but by the 2 season astronomical year definition, whereby Spring and Autumn were simply terms for the first half of a 6 month long Summer and Winter respectively (and I believe they once must have been rather than distinct and separate seasons in their own right) you can see why the solstices came to be known as mid Summer and mid Winter.

Surely it's silly to get downbeat about our future prospects in the early last third of November anyway. How many of the great Winters started in the models reliable time frame as of now anyway? Almost none is how many. I can understand the rush and panic though after 3 awful Winters (from a coldies/snow lovers perspective) but we really do have to recognise and appreciate the time of year it is right now and that at this time of year our expectations based on the historical data should be limited anyway. People may look to the golden age of cold Winters but in reality few of even those Winters got cold and snowy this early or even for most of December. And with the background signals looking decent for the time being there is still a lot to play for. I know there is worry these could become less favourable in time, but at the same time perhaps these signals could change little for a long time. After all we all know that these signals (whatever they may indicate) have had a habit in recent years to be stuck in situ for extended periods, so perhaps little will change in that regard for the whole Winter period (not counting on such obviously but at the same time it gives me better hope than the background signals we were stuck with in late Autumn 2013 & 2015 for example). Personally my feelings about this coming Winter are good, Amen, and with more than 3 months to go until Spring arrives that it a massive timeframe for opportunity and manoeuvre.

Despite the very cold November musings back in October only been half hearted in the end, I do believe based on past experience this should have been expected and considering the time of year it is, is actually a good thing. To explain, I've noticed in the past that cold signals are often picked up prematurely by the models as well as been suggested by the background signs to occur sooner than was actually the case. For example I remember in February 2013 there was a fair bit of expectation that that month would turn out very cold, only for when the month progressed for it to be somewhat cold, but nowhere near as cold as earlier signals suggested. But because of the tendency of the long range models to bring it in earlier than what ultimately transpired there was a fair bit of toy throwing on this forum, only for March to eventually deliver in the end, which back in say January that year was little expected (and understandably so considering March is a meteorological Spring month and nothing like that March had occured for a very long time). Also lets not forget last Winter when there was much speculation of late Winter possibly delivering i.e. February, but in the end the cold came later in March (though nothing on the scale of 2013, but things were very different that year) and April even. As for now this is perhaps a good sign that though cold has been predicted this month (and it has so far occured, but nothing major as yet) due to the premature nature of long range models, this is a good sign it will ultimately occur but later than it was initially projected , and due to the time of year, occur at a much more conducive time to when we can hopefully take much more advantage of it i.e. in December. And I'm sure most of us would prefer that anyway. As ever though we'll see.

Just as a reminder. None of the great Winter's such as 1946/47, 1962/63, 1978/79 or even 2009/10 (though 2010/11 did, but remember that ended early just as it started early) got going early enough to be in anywhere near of the models reliable timeframe yet. It's very easy when we get to November to feel somewhat deflated by proceedings, as Winter is literally round the corner. But we've also got to remember that though this may be so, we're still a long way from having any confident idea how the Winter season will pan out (indeed even when it starts it's far from certain at least at the beginning). So as long as things look like they may be conducive to deliver cold weather at least further down the line we've got absolutely nothing to panic about yet. We've just got to recognise and appreciate exactly the time of year it now is, which is still the last third of Autumn which is a time of year whatever year, we should expect very little in terms of cold in these islands but at the same time we should appreciate and recognise that at this juncture we're doing not bad at all for where we are and this coming Winter has a lot to play for going forward. Yes we've been teased a little recently but at the same time whether or whether not some of these projections have materialised to the degree they have shown, has at least shown that the atmosphere is in a state to possibly deliver and this can only be a good thing as we head into the true Winter season which as yet still lies ahead in the distance.

Well it feels a bit like last Winter at the moment, when we had events that just turned out to be cold rain. But then I remember that it isn't even Winter yet and it's only the 8th of November, so it matters little really. It's turning out to be quite a good late Autumn though, as at least some places are incredibly getting snow this early and we had a chilly Bonfire Night for the first time in 4 years, plus this morning we had an air frost and it's felt quite cold all day (this time last year it didn't feel cold). So not bad at all really, for the time of year.

First air frost of the season now achieved this morning.

First air frost of the season here this morning.

Wish it was covering the West Midlands as well, though there is a snow symbol for this region but that's probably because that yellow area just about clips the far north east of the West Midlands region. It's not beyond possible though I suppose (though chances are probably slim) that it could spread further west than that forecast indicates. Either way it's good to see snow forecast so far south at close range this early in the season. Even if I get nothing here this time, this coming Winter is already showing signs that it will be a colder one than the last 3 (hopefully). So there is at least hope for now, further down the line, that I could get some decent snow at some point.

Crewecold did provide a link to the anomaly forecasts from the CFS covering November to April. I'll admit I'm out of my depth though in reading charts. Though from what I can tell, though this month looks good, December and January don't. February looks better though. As I say though I don't much understand charts and I tend to rely on others on this forum to give me the gist of them. Though what you say and the graph you posted is reassuring.

That's a pretty impressive statistic, especially as that's a quarter of a century ago now.

As Crewecold says it is both disappointing and concerning that the CFS is suggesting a +NAO developing, especially after so much early potential promise for this coming Winter. Even if such did develop though it doesn't necessarily mean we'll be stuck in a rut and things could change down the line, meaning that perhaps not all of Winter would be a dud. However at the same time doesn't this model have quite a mixed success rate, with it been very close to the mark sometimes and other times been way off? Also before we start getting too worried we better wait to see what the next Glosea and EC seasonal updates suggest. It is a bit deflating though of course, and we've just got to hope for now that it's wrong. Indeed after such promising signs this Autumn that we may finally be breaking free from the recent run of mild Winters it would feel pretty demoralising if we're about to enter yet another one. A lot of water to run under the bridge yet though, so we'll just have to sit tight and see.

We've had quite a cold Bonfire Night tonight, though not quite as cold as I'd hoped it would be. I thought it would possibly be quite frosty, though according to my friends temperature gauge in his car it was down to 3c on our way back from the fireworks display we went to in Penkridge. Though when I got back I did notice frost on the roof of my Mum's car. It's been slightly breezy as well which has probably prevented the temperature dropping to freezing. Though despite this it has felt quite bitter out there tonight, especially with the slight breeze adding a wind chill factor and has felt how Bonfire Night should. It's also at least the coldest Bonfire Night since 2012.

You're probably thinking of Bonfire Night in 2012. That was the last cold one I remember with a bit of a ground frost that night. I remember frost forming on car roofs, along the road to the display I went to that year. I'm not sure whether an air frost developed later that night, into the next morning, but it was defiantly a cold night that year. It was also the Bonfire Night preceding our most recent cold Winter of 2012/13, so perhaps a good sign that this coming Bonfire Night is predicted to be cold.

Actually saw my first ground frost this morning (though as I stated earlier my Mum told me there was some on the roof of her car on 10th October). I didn't get up until 8:30 am and most of it had thawed in the Sun by then but there was still a fair bit about in the shade. It's got quite a bit chillier since yesterday as well so hopefully there will be more to come with hopefully my first air frost of the season not to far away.

The fact in itself that the Met Office of all organisations is thinking that this coming Winter may be on the cold side, is a huge confidence boost for us coldies. They wouldn't put this idea out lightly. Not saying they will be right of course and neither are they. But there's got to be very specific alarm bells ringing, which seldom do for them to even suggest such. I've still got to only be cautiously optimistic though despite this. They did see the end of 2010 coming though. To add a bit of balance though they failed to see Winter 2009/10 coming and they also raised expectations to high for Winter 2005/06. But they weren't alone in that. And that Winter was a bit cold though. As I say though it is very comforting to see them on board.

Actually I've heard that December 2010 was in the drier than average category despite all the snow. After all if you get a couple of good snowfalls but it clears up afterwards, as long as it's cold enough that snow will stick around for a while. In such a situation you would class it as a good snowy period even if snow didn't fall from the sky all that often. After all unlike rain which just drains away (with the exception of flooding in prone areas if it's long lasting and intense enough) snow being solid will stick to and stay on any surface it comes into contact with (as long as that surface is cold enough) and will only be moved by wind (if it's soft) human intervention (such as gritting and shovelling) and ultimately thawing. The point being dry doesn't necessarily mean snowless and as long as it's cold at the surface for an extended period even one day of snow within that period can transform the scenery into a Winter wonderland for some time.

Despite been late October there's a big female frog sitting by the edge of my pond today. She looks pretty plump as well like they do in the breeding season when they're full of eggs. Of course the breeding season won't start for another 4 to 5 months at least, but if she is producing eggs inside her already I would have thought it's incredibly early to do so. Though for all I know this could be normal and they actually get plump with eggs before hibernation (which she clearly isn't doing yet, but it is quite mild at the moment and it hasn't got especially cold yet and often in March it actually gets colder than it has been recently, which is the month they gather for spawning). On the other hand it could simply be body fat, which she has stored up to keep her metabolism going during her hibernation period, which can't be far off. On another note despite been able to see little as the pond is still coated with duck weed and now also fallen leaves I still occasionally see the odd tadpole at the surface. Today in fact I saw one on a half submerged leaf and to add to that it was one of those small tadpoles which has got nowhere near metamorphosis. In fact it has been a strange year for the tadpoles in my pond. Despite many seeming to make the change earlier on most seemed to (from what I observed) only get to the stage where their bodies got to frog form but they maintained long tails. In fact I only saw one without a tail at the surface, and one tailess froglet outside the pond a few weeks back as I reported on the 12th of September. In the past though I would see quite a few out and about in the garden after they'd fully formed. As for there been tadpoles still in the pond I don't think it's particularly unusual and I have heard that some individuals rather than complete metamorphosis over the same Spring and Summer they were born in can sometimes over Winter in the pond emerging as froglets the following Spring. In previous years I have noticed the odd tadpole as late as November also. Anyway I didn't think there would be much to report in this thread in late October and being as frogesque started this thread on the 9th of February this year, it could only be just over 3 months until he starts his 'Frogs and Other Amphibia 2017' thread.