Weather Wizard
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Posts posted by Weather Wizard
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It just goes to show than even the pros and models can get it all horribly wrong. As we all know, the weather won;t act a way just because the professionals and some computer models say "it will". Its all a prediction after all. The weather will do what it wants' when it wants. Yay for unpreictability!!
Yup this shows that once you get a very cold pool of air in place things usually take care of themselves. (even if not shown to on the models)
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Met office going to have egg on there face tomorrow if disruption in London caused by snow with no real warning. Quite incredible how poorly forecast this event was both by met and by models.
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Was definitely going more SSW till last few radar frames (between 20:45-22:00), now seems to be going more SW again (22:00-22:45)
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Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low for Wales, Midlands, SE England
It looks quite marginal though for settling snow
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London Heat Effect may give a kick to some of these showers so don't be too surprised if you see a flake or two in that area soon.
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It will be rain if it gets here - dew points already too high for snow at 9.45am!
Sadly conditions don't favour snow in our region
I think most ppl are talking about tonight when conditions will be ripe for snow.
Note also chance of lightning today http://www.estofex.org/
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I think the next week will be a lot more noteworthy for its temperature (specifically wind chill) than its lack of precipitation
Back to trend for the 12z. A week of northerlies then high pressure. Could well be a very dry period for some places.
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ECM very good for the UK with some wintry potential even down south, but for the US that is just plain ridiculous -24 uppers down to North Carolina!!!
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Doesn't look too bad for me, going to Budapest from Wednesday till Monday and the latest gfs looks like I might get some serious snow action especially Saturday/Sunday :-)
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I am flying tommorow from Luton should be a bumpy flight
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This is from the US airforce (from my simplistic reading of it, it looks better than the FAX)
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Don't think there would be a breath of wind in the whole of europe here (where are the isobars!!!)
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Anyone fancy a trip over to France on Friday to reminise about what we USED to get?
oh yeah just look at this
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GP's scandinavian high showing up towards the end of the GFS
and at 144h the UKMO looks pretty warm
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Very weird 12z from the GFS. It has a low moving east!!!
I think the outlook from Sunday onwards is very uncertain
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Rather disappointing outputs this evening in the medium term, with GFS definately trending more towards the increasingly unsettled outputs recently touted by ECM. Certainly still enough time for the main LP to stall further west, but that setup is now starting to appear something of a outside shot, with a cooler, more unsettled spell looking most likely to evolve for all as next week unfolds.
Unsetled yes. Cooler not so sure looks like the mean trough will set up to our SW meaning we should be on the warm thundery side with warm air coming up from spain
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It will be interesting to see which way this goes with LP to the west and high pressure building to the east
Those charts scream warm, muggy and great thunderstorm potential
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I am afraid that all those in the north east have forgotten one extremely important ingredient
location!!!
It seems as if storms only want to form in the SE this year so far (I am not complaining)
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In my opinion Robbie has been unfairly victamised the TAF's and Metars are extremely valuable ways of predicting T-storms and other weather around an airfield and thus in the surrounding area they are very easy to learn and you can easily 'translate' them online.
Keep up the good work Robbie
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I am intrested in the stuff on the French/German/Swiss border looks good for the SE later and it has appeared out of nowhere
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I have a feeling that the stuff in the channel will go just to my east
Damn
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I have had loads of thunder here today (haven't seen much lightning due to low cloud bases)
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UKASF have also just produced an updated forecast (rare to produce 2) with the SE in a High risk area
http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/160
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Torro just put out a warning and I am in the red area
This is begining to look intresting
Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
A transient spell like 11th-14th Jan 1987 would be ok though