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Weather Wizard

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Posts posted by Weather Wizard

    Model Discussion - 10th March Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    We are certainly in an unsettled pattern now and just in time for those in the south who are just hours away from Hose pipe bans, the 10 Pecipitation outlook shows that there will be rain around for those in need of it

    prec4.png

    All the models this morning point to only one thing and that is unsettled weather during the first half at least of the month giving ample Opportunities for rainfall

    If you look at the anomaly chart much of the UK is actually only getting normal (100%) rainful we need more than this to overcome the drought. However it is a start

    Model Discussion - 10th March Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I wasn't talking about a 'quota' in the literal sense John, but nature always balances itself out, the trick is knowing when that balance will come. However based on statistics, I'd suggest IF M/A/M were dry, warm and sunny, there is a greater chance that J/J/A would not be. That's not to say it couldn't happen, but the chances of it must be somewhat reduced.

    Thats like saying that since I just flipped a coint 10 times and got a head every time that the next time I am more likely to get a tail.

    In fact the chances remain 50/50

    I think it will be a warm summer overall

    In Depth Model Discussion, Analysis and Summaries

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    A touch too early to make a call Alex, although IF angular momentum remains low, then the ingredients would be there for another duff summer. However, a number of factors are there which may force angular momentum upwards, not least a predicted weak El Nino transition. The PDO remains negative though which will favour a more 1950s type summer.

    The wildcard here is solar activity. After a quiet period, the sun sprang to life last night and we are due a period of enhanced activity as we head into the solar max which can only be a good think for those looking for a warm, dry summer.

    Sorry for my ignorance but what were the summers in the 1950's like

    Thanks

    Significant Snow/Freezing Rain Risk - 9-10th February

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Im surprised this isn't getting more attention. Not only does the NAE have no precipitation across NE Scotland but the 10pm radar even has this band beginning to push into the N Sea. If the models have the precip in the wrong place at +0hrs then you really can't have any faith in the projected precip charts. Come tomorrow the snow area may well be as the models indicate but at this moment in time I wouldn't be confident.

    Going to be interesting comparing the radar at mignight with the models!

    Hi,

    Surely if the NAE has underestimated the eastern extent to the precip then shouldn't areas further east tommorow get something

    Thanks

    Significant Snow Risk This Weekend - General Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    A few inches here at Heathrow, still snowing heavy. Looks like we are half way through the band of snow on the radar

    Heathrow Airport is still open, but it's pretty chaotic at the moment.

    I'm listening to the Ground frequency and it sounds like they are using both runways for arrivals, and departing aircraft are being held. Pilots are saying they are missing their "holdover times", which is the window that anti-icing is valid for, and having to return to the gate to be de-iced again, only to go back in a departure queue.........

    I am listening to 119.5 and it atc keeps repeating only single runway operations.

    SH7B is PAM due to faulty anti icing

    Model Discussion - 16th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Weather wizard

    GFS is edging towards a snowfest for england > the midlands +NE/ E/SE at 192-

    Doesnt look all that great in the big picture but when you see this-

    http://www.wetterzen...s/Rmgfs1892.gif Uppers -2

    http://www.wetterzen...s/Rmgfs1899.gif Theta Around 10-12C

    http://www.wetterzen...s/Rmgfs1898.gif Surface dewpoints -2c

    http://www.wetterzen...s/Rmgfs1894.gif Surface temps Zero & below

    http://www.wetterzen...s/Rmgfs1893.gif PPN moving slow east...

    The GFS is NEARLY NEARLY there & UKMO looks good-

    Very positive this eve-

    S

    Steve I think you should find your nearest specsaver's dew points look all positive to me and all surface temps appear to be well above zero.

    Model Discussion - 16th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Hum not a lot of Accuracy so far in this thread-

    GFS much more akin to UKMO now-

    http://modeles.meteo...12-0-114.png?12

    UKMO good at 96 as well-

    http://www.meteociel...96-21.GIF?16-17

    ALSO very good UKMO 120

    http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?16-17

    GFS 126

    http://modeles.meteo...12-0-126.png?12

    WALL of cold building up to the NE & the atlantic low seperated from a smaller shortwave on its southern flank which is good-

    S

    Yes the low in the atlantic is better placed but the original low on Friday is significantly worse.

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