Weather Wizard
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Posts posted by Weather Wizard
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Yes!!!
First storm in NW London here (NW11 9HD) 3 flashes and lots of boombing thunder.
I am so excited after somehow all of the last few weeks storms have missed me
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listening to 120.4 and all planes at heathrow not wanting to take an approach as cell on final
Its not fair everything is forming just south of here
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helll yehhhh got my name on it I hope!
After dying out slightly it looks like it is begining to find new energy on the latest radar grab
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Thats some cell between reading and basingstoke
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Yeah I thought that, but Nick have you not seen the stuff to the north west of London heading this way?? Might erupt or even do better than the multiple cells to the south west.
There are some gaps in the stuff to the north west of london as I have sadly found out
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Some pretty cool cloudscapes here
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What amazes me is many people on here know that haha, aswell as the frequencies in use for the UK's busiest airport.
Yeah, this is the baby showing up on radar at the moment.
Heading for Harry of course....
Well all the planes are holding 15 miles short of lambourne due to a cell over lambourne at the moment
I am pretty sure that the planes usually stack clockwise over lambourne
I love the look of the stuff over the midlands heading towards London
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That cell to the north east/east of London didn't please one of the inbound Virgin 747s. They asked to go around it haha!
Yeah its brilliant listening (119.725) on days like today
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It was shaping up to be a good day but somehow i managed to find myself in this tiny gap
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as the cells approach oxford the cells seem to be finding increased energy
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I have gone to heathrow to chase to combine my hobbies of weather and planes, I think cells should start hitting here at around 5:15 anyone have any ideas it looks very convective already
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Some nice convection here
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Firstly sorry mods but it has to be said.
1) I never said that this week was going to be Dominated by persistant rainfall, please read post's correctly.
I said quote "Pushing bands of showers or longer spells of rain South".
2) I only give a view on what the models are showing,and as most of us on here know they do change detail slightly from day to day. Which is what makes model watching interesting for the majority of us. So if anything the models have backed away (a little) from my last assessment.
3) Im on here to learn as im shure others are, If my assessment of any model i show on the day is incorrect then please inform me in a more polite and informative way.
4) And as for an agenda..... All i have done is disguss the model output, which i fail to see you doing but only targeting every post i seem to make in a very rude and insulting way over the last few days.
Once again Mods & everyone who reads this thread, sorry for this off topic post. I just personaly felt i had to say something regarding weather09 attitude towards me.
regards
PM
The thing is the GFS precip maps are so inaccurate that pointing them out on here especially past 96h is misleading in itself even though this is the model thread
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Thats weird the latest observation for northolt is light snow
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This little beast has picked up in the past half hour...Watching it closely...
There is a sferic with it if you look on detector
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Yes SJ.
Looking like an eventful afternoon comeing up
Ok for 80% of the country
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No real change to the GFS, a typical 80's style April on the cards.
Heavy and persistant showers will form over Tuesday/Wednesday to to bring rain/hail/sleet and snow for high ground in the North, with the odd isolated rumble of thunder. Temps will be around average or just below for the time of year, but blowing on a brisk N/W it will feel much cooler, especialy in any heavy showers. Showers could merge together to bring persistant rain in some areas for S/E Scotland and N/E England.
Towards the end of the week winds will turn to a more N/N/E airflow, bringing much colder conditions for the UK, with the risk of sleet and snow to lower levels from the Midlands North. With daytime temps below average, and frosts at night as sky's clear.
Can't see any persistant rain this week
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I was hoping for better on estofex only small chance of lightning.
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but what else would you suggest is used to TRY and predict the weather.
If they are so inaccurate how come you seem to be using them to predict less in the way of showers?
We all know they are not accurate in terms of specifics but I am using them to try and illustrtate how the weather MAY turn out. I always make comment on just how much precipitaion charts change as we near T+00 even though neither the upper air pattern nor to a lesser extent the surface pattern may not.
They are the only percipitation chart's to use to show whats in stall for next week. Whether it be right or wrong, this is what the models are showing.
No they are not!!!
As TWS just said dont use the charts on meteociel use the ones on netweather as the charts on meteoceil make it look like a lot of frontal rainfull which clearly there won't be.
compared to exactly the same chart on net weather at the same time (meteociel is french time)
shows more convective weather (i still don't think it will be anything like shown on netweather as I think it will be more scattered than one big blob of convection)
It's an area where people can easily get confused- if the distinction between convective and large-scale precipitation is poorly understood, or poorly labelled on the model outputs, it's very easy to see a mass of "rain" and think "dull and wet".
That is exactly my point
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GFS showing persistant rain and prolonged showers for all but the S/E from the 11th.
Those GFS precip charts as mentioned by john h are terribly innacurate especially for convection and at +132h
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Of course we are all entitled to make our own judgements but to suggest some are 'struggling' as you put it is a touch unkind in my view.
I tend to agree with the Met O suggestion that there are likely to be a fair number of showers about, due to cold air aloft, reasonable sunshine heat available by day, and that they may be prolonged in places at times, even extending into longer periods of rain.
With relatively deep cold air at 500mb, colder than -20C showing on GFS over the UK much of the time, even colder on Wednnesday, reasonable sunshine amounts probable, the two=heavy showers in places next week and this 'could' lead to more prolonged type showery rain?
Perhaps you can explain why you feel this to be unlikely?
I don't think the showers will be so prolonged as
1. There is not such deep cold at 850 (-1 to -4)
2. any convection that gets going will move along rather quickly on a strong breeze
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I have always used them as a guide, as with any other model.
But as the other models show, with big lows sweeping S/E it's almost inevitable we are in for some good prolonged rainfall amount's.
And with the cold air aloft with strong N/W winds, Snow on high ground for the Middlands North and Scotland is certainly not out of the question in these type set up's.
I disagree after monday there is very little frontal rainfull and most of the rain will be from convection which will not be "prolonged"
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The GFS this morning is still showing an unsettled outlook throughout, With PM air from the N/W bringing heavy rain, strong winds and snow for the Scottish Highlands, sinking South over the whole of the UK from Monday. With Frost where cloud breaks in the North.
Befor turning into a colder Northerly flow, bringing -8 uppers into Scotland and -4 uppers into the Middlands. Pushing bands of showers or longer spells of rain South, with Snow over high ground from the Middlands North and Scotland, and rain for the South. With frosts at night, and daytime Temps into single digits on a Northerly flow it will feel rather cold. A very seasonal picture on the cards for April for once.
Those GFS precip charts are rubbish at predicting coonvective rainfull any more than 24h in advance, so i wouldn't take the continous rainfull shown to seriously.
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Some very different synoptics on offer this evening for the foreseeable future compared to recent months -slow moving sinking trough feature developing over the country as we move into next week, as the jet stream sinks well to the south and we see strong heights rises both to our NW and NE - these are synoptics we haven't seen since last summer.
So a preety unsettled and very cloudy outlook on the cards with temps near or slightly below average and showery outbreaks of rain over the weekend, but any rain next week will be very heavy I imagine and very persistant - the low pressure and trough could well hang around for 4-5 days. These are the type of synoptics often associated with April, a month when northerlies and easterlies reach their yearly maxim.
Despite the rather poor outlook for those wanting sunshine and warm temps, I am very happy with the outlook, rather have these type of synoptics now than in a couple of months time.
I am not sure how persistent the showers will be after monday as there will be quite a strong breeze so any convective cells should move along quite quickly. There may be quite a lot of convection due to the cold air mass but that isn't persistant. (thursday may see a band of organised rain)
Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - April 2012 part 3
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Don't be greedy for this time of year most of us aren't doing to badly