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Weather Wizard

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    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    You keep on posting mate. I am not complaining one bit. Although I do not say I know the rules etc. But I like people who back there stuff up, something which I do not do very well I must admit. You do which is absolutely the right thing to do.

    I wish i could give this post 15+

    Carry on Gavin

    El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 2

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    I've read PJB's analysis on UKWW for tomorrow, and all I can say is it seems like an incredibly complex situation and he is brave for being one of the first to provide a detailed outlook! Despite reading it I am none the wiser.

    It'll be a case of being in the risk area - and simply getting lucky. It might happen for a lot of us, or just a few of us! :lol:

    I tell you what though, I gonna make damn sure it happens for me! :p

    Please can you provide a link

    Thanks

    El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 2

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    This from the estofex website http://www.estofex.org/html/information.html before you all get to aggitated about tuesday

    "How reliable are ESTOFEX forecasts? We have been running a verification of the lightning forecasts since 2006, see the Verification section for detailed information. Also, first verification efforts of the severe-weather forecasts have been realized in collaboration with the University of Oklahoma (see the literature page). While there is a lack of severe weather reports reaching us, a verification of the threat level areas has been started. Some results are presented in the new description of the threat levels. The probability of severe weather events indeed increases according to the forecast threat level. The probability of detection, based on reported events, inside at least a level 1 is: gusts: 57%, significant gusts: 81%, hail: 60%, significant hail: 84%, tornadoes: 36%, significant tornadoes: 67%. This shows that extremely severe events are less likely to be missed, but note that around 80% of extremely severe events did not fall inside the higher threat levels (2 and 3) which are considered most appropriate. There is room for improvement. More results will be presented at the European Conference on Severe Storms in October 2009. The quality of data is crucial for a more reliable verification. Please help us and other scientists: submit to the ESWD!"

    Convective / Storm Chat And Discussion

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Strange stuff from Exeter HQ

    This for the SE

    Headline:

    Heavy rain this evening, clearing to blustery showers on Saturday.

    This Evening and Tonight:

    A wet evening with rain, often heavy and thundery, slowly clearing northeastwards through the first part of the night, leaving clear spells and more fleeting heavy showers towards morning, as a fresh or strong westerly wind sets in. Minimum temperature 10 °C.

    Saturday:

    A much brighter day with sunny intervals but also showers, some heavy with a risk of hail and thunder, but generally blowing through quite quickly on a brisk westerly breeze. Maximum temperature 17 °C.

    Updated: 1528 on Fri 17 Jun 2011

    I definately wasn't expecting anything tonight and even after this still aren't no strikes reported on any of the detection websites.

    Convective / Storm Chat And Discussion

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Weather wizard

    Thanks for the links

    I have looked at all of these and they all show either blue skies or some cloud but no storms

    Ironically the met office say this for the south east for tonight:

    Cloud and showers, or longer spells of rain, will reach Hampshire and the Isle of Wight this evening. The showers or spells of rain will sometimes be heavy and possibly thundery, and spread to other counties through the night. Minimum temperature 12 °C.

    but no mention of anything stormy in the south west (where everyone thinks the real action will be)

    Showers in most parts this evening will clear away with a mainly dry night following. Some clear spells in the east, but cloudier with some mist and fog on southwestern coasts. Minimum temperature 12 °C.

    Strange!!!

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