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Weather Wizard

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Posts posted by Weather Wizard

    Model Discussion - 16th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Yes it is much deeper, but what are you suggesting might be the likely implications of this further into the high res part of the run?

    I am saying that since there is so much uncertainty due to the lack of continuity between runs so early on,

    the rest of the output will also be subject to large uncertainty.

    Model Discussion - 16th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Weather wizard

    Admittedly it's early doors, but looking at the T+48hr it's hard to see this run turning out much different to it's predecessor, with little in the way of widespread cold likely to develop inside the higher res section.

    I am not sure how you can make such a sweeping statment so early on in a run

    Huge changes at just T+90 on GFS look how much deeper the low is to our north

    However these changes produce an even worse run than the 06z

    Model Output Discussion - 12th December Onward

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The mystery of the NAE continues, its 18hrs run is a mirror image of the earlier 12hrs at the same timeframes.

    Theres no way every detail would be exactly the same if this was using the latest data.

    Check the 42hrs and then put the run back to the 12hrs at 48hrs, identical!

    http://www.weatheron...41800%26HH%3D42

    When the timeline is purple it means it hasn't updated yet.

    The models arent that bad yet

    UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Weather wizard

    UKASF agreeing with your talk of recent eastward shifts

    Areas Affected:

    None

    Synopsis:

    Negatively-tilted upper ridge slowly pivots to become positively-tilted as an upper trough slowly approaches from the Atlantic.

    Discussion:Once again warm mid-levels underneath the weakening upper ridge will result in unfavourable lapse rates for any noteworthy convection. Forecast soundings indicate a pretty dry atmosphere, with any cloud likely at very low levels (below 850mb). Lightning is very unlikely, although there are some indications that very late in the forecast period there may be a slight increased in instability over NW Scotland as a reuslt of the approaching weather fronts, with very maginal ELT's.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Whilst the GFS, and to some extent the Canadian model, suggests thundery imports late on Saturday and Saturday night, we take considerable caution at this range due to the infamous progressive eastern shift over consecutive model runs leading up to such an event.

    Why couldn't I have been alive 20 years ago!!!

    (http://www.ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/90)

    22 July 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast, Discussion And Reports

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Still looking very good for the SE according to the met

    Today:

    Many places will have a largely dry and bright day, with some sunny spells, especially this morning. A few light showers will occur, but it is not until late afternoon that showers quickly become more widespread and also occasionally heavy. Maximum temperature 22 °C.

    Tonight:

    Scattered heavy, and perhaps thundery, showers at first, especially across Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire. Overnight showers will merge into areas of heavy rain, particularly affecting London, Kent, Surrey, and East Sussex. Minimum temperature 10 °C.

    It seems they think the showers will start all of a sudden which I hope they do as on the radar it seems very dry, although the clouscapes are pretty big.

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