Weather Wizard

I am saying that since there is so much uncertainty due to the lack of continuity between runs so early on, the rest of the output will also be subject to large uncertainty.

I am not sure how you can make such a sweeping statment so early on in a run Huge changes at just T+90 on GFS look how much deeper the low is to our north However these changes produce an even worse run than the 06z

The low looking quite a bit stronger on the 12z over Iceland at 36h

Will the area of precip in the NW effect us or will it fizzle out

That looks 8mb lower than gfs predicted I.e 992 instead of 1000 Still all to play for

When the timeline is purple it means it hasn't updated yet. The models arent that bad yet

This looks convective this looks exciting red alert for the south http://www.torro.org...te/forecast.php

Not sure if any one posted this yet looks exciting red alert for the south http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

Is this GP's finland high finnaly showing

It looks exactly like snow to me

Thanks

Sorry but do the darker colours (i.e. red) mean that there is a hugher CAP and so less convection is likely to occur or is it the other way round Thanks Also Torro have a watch for all of England out and UKASF have a promissing looking map for tommorow for most of England.

Estofex now out and not brilliant unless you live in ireland

UKASF agreeing with your talk of recent eastward shifts Areas Affected: None Synopsis: Negatively-tilted upper ridge slowly pivots to become positively-tilted as an upper trough slowly approaches from the Atlantic. Discussion:Once again warm mid-levels underneath the weakening upper ridge will result in unfavourable lapse rates for any noteworthy convection. Forecast soundings indicate a pretty dry atmosphere, with any cloud likely at very low levels (below 850mb). Lightning is very unlikely, although there are some indications that very late in the forecast period there may be a slight increased in instability over NW Scotland as a reuslt of the approaching weather fronts, with very maginal ELT's. EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Whilst the GFS, and to some extent the Canadian model, suggests thundery imports late on Saturday and Saturday night, we take considerable caution at this range due to the infamous progressive eastern shift over consecutive model runs leading up to such an event. Why couldn't I have been alive 20 years ago!!! (http://www.ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/90)

Will it ever get to N london

The precip in the channel appears to be loosing some intensity.

Does anyone know what happened to ESTOFEX today???

Does any one know if the front currently in the atlantic will bring the SE any thunder overnight/tommorow Thanks

Thanks

Could someone pleAse post a link to the Iceland met office lightning site thanks

Terrible estofex for tommorow

I know it's not much but estofex have some of us in their lowest (thin yellow) warning zone tomorrow. Maybe???

Will the stuff over Birmingham reach london and will it intensify at all???::cc_confused:

Still looking very good for the SE according to the met Today: Many places will have a largely dry and bright day, with some sunny spells, especially this morning. A few light showers will occur, but it is not until late afternoon that showers quickly become more widespread and also occasionally heavy. Maximum temperature 22 °C. Tonight: Scattered heavy, and perhaps thundery, showers at first, especially across Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire. Overnight showers will merge into areas of heavy rain, particularly affecting London, Kent, Surrey, and East Sussex. Minimum temperature 10 °C. It seems they think the showers will start all of a sudden which I hope they do as on the radar it seems very dry, although the clouscapes are pretty big.

Looks like just accross the channel is doing to badly http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/sf_na_1d.gif? ::girl_devil: