Weather Wizard

Does any one know if things will get any more exciting this evening for the SE or are we relying on the sun Thanks

I wish i could give this post 15+ Carry on Gavin

I think Gavin's posts are very informative :rolleyes: May they long continue

Anyone got a link to the Iceland met office lightning Thanks

Will it be warner than expected in the east due to the CF stalling???

I think it's looking much better for the south east than everyone is making out Looks tasty over France expect to be woken at around 2-3 by thunder I don't think Nick F and others (estofex torro) got it that wrong it was just delayed a bit and the north east got there convection as expected

where is the cold front at the moment???

I think the CAP must be beginning to be broken over the uk

I can comfirm there are some huge clouds building in NW London Yeeeeeeeees!!!

Sorry for my ignorance but is that good or bad for storms

Starts coming out at 11 during the summer

Look at the date!!!

Please can you provide a link Thanks

This from the estofex website http://www.estofex.org/html/information.html before you all get to aggitated about tuesday "How reliable are ESTOFEX forecasts? We have been running a verification of the lightning forecasts since 2006, see the Verification section for detailed information. Also, first verification efforts of the severe-weather forecasts have been realized in collaboration with the University of Oklahoma (see the literature page). While there is a lack of severe weather reports reaching us, a verification of the threat level areas has been started. Some results are presented in the new description of the threat levels. The probability of severe weather events indeed increases according to the forecast threat level. The probability of detection, based on reported events, inside at least a level 1 is: gusts: 57%, significant gusts: 81%, hail: 60%, significant hail: 84%, tornadoes: 36%, significant tornadoes: 67%. This shows that extremely severe events are less likely to be missed, but note that around 80% of extremely severe events did not fall inside the higher threat levels (2 and 3) which are considered most appropriate. There is room for improvement. More results will be presented at the European Conference on Severe Storms in October 2009. The quality of data is crucial for a more reliable verification. Please help us and other scientists: submit to the ESWD!"

A slight eastwards shift on 12z

Thanks

Can any one post a link to the Iceland met office lightning detector Thanks

Strange stuff from Exeter HQ This for the SE Headline: Heavy rain this evening, clearing to blustery showers on Saturday. This Evening and Tonight: A wet evening with rain, often heavy and thundery, slowly clearing northeastwards through the first part of the night, leaving clear spells and more fleeting heavy showers towards morning, as a fresh or strong westerly wind sets in. Minimum temperature 10 °C. Saturday: A much brighter day with sunny intervals but also showers, some heavy with a risk of hail and thunder, but generally blowing through quite quickly on a brisk westerly breeze. Maximum temperature 17 °C. Updated: 1528 on Fri 17 Jun 2011 I definately wasn't expecting anything tonight and even after this still aren't no strikes reported on any of the detection websites.

The north of france doesnt seem to be doing to badly

Can someone please post the link to the iceland volcano lightning detector Thanks

Is it just me or do those cells have more of an easterly vector. Some seem to be heading directly towards me I live in hope

The direction the current cells are taking will mean the se and london will miss out. However more convection can still occur, although i think it is highly unlikely

Thanks for the links I have looked at all of these and they all show either blue skies or some cloud but no storms Ironically the met office say this for the south east for tonight: Cloud and showers, or longer spells of rain, will reach Hampshire and the Isle of Wight this evening. The showers or spells of rain will sometimes be heavy and possibly thundery, and spread to other counties through the night. Minimum temperature 12 °C. but no mention of anything stormy in the south west (where everyone thinks the real action will be) Showers in most parts this evening will clear away with a mainly dry night following. Some clear spells in the east, but cloudier with some mist and fog on southwestern coasts. Minimum temperature 12 °C. Strange!!!

Does any one know how London is supposed to do tommorow Thanks

Thanks